Low FTA numbers should be troubling, how will we do in the playoffs?

[mmmmm]

Drawing fouls is important for another reason -- consistent scoring.

Relying on three pointers is fine.  It's efficient.  You want to generate a lot of three pointers for your offense and be able to hit them at least at an average rate.

But the thing about threes is you're going to miss way more than half the time.  So you're going to have stretches where you miss a lot of shots. 


Over a large sample that doesn't matter.  But mentally it can really wear on you if you miss a lot of shots in a row.  It can also result in the other team getting fast break points. 


There's value in seeing your score go up and the ball go in the basket.

You also need to be able to generate a shot that is more likely than not to go in when there's not much time left in the game and you're trailing by a small amount.


For all those reasons, being able to generate free throws is hugely valuable for the purpose of stabilizing your offense and calming your team down during stretches of cold shooting.

Yeah, another way of characterizing what you are talking about is "miss rate".   With the three point shot, even if you are as equally scoring-efficient, you will be missing more shots.

And on average, about 75% of missed shots get grabbed by the defense.   And on average, teams score more efficiently off a defensive rebound than they do when they have to in-bound the pass.

Good old-fashioned FG% still has a powerful correlation with winning titles.

[PhoSita]

Boston is 14th in the league in FG%. 

Golden State is #1 by a mile.  Milwaukee and Indiana are tied for 2nd.


That might say something about Indiana's resilience.  Very good defense and high field goal percentage.

[mmmmm]

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

This isn't really about the refs.   Yes, SOME refs are bizarrely inconsistent with other refs.  But overall, the Celtics don't get calls regardless of the refs.

The problem is twofold. 

a) We don't really drive all that much.  We are ranked 24th in the NBA in drives per game.

b) Even when we drive, we don't try to create contact.   In particular, Kyrie (responsible for the most of our drives) tries to avoid contact with the way he drives and shoots.   

Try to dig up some highlights of the way Isaiah Thomas would attack on a drive and compare them to highlights of Kyrie.   Thomas would purposely time the defender's body motion, anticipating the bump and then purposely play off the contact.  He'd use his off hand to get the shot off anyway if necessary and if he missed he'd go sink a couple of free throws.    Then net result was a season of historic scoring efficiency.

Kyrie, on his drives will use pull ups and dribble action to create space to try to get a clear shot off.  He actually ends up shooting these at excellent efficiency (because he isn't being jarred by bumps).  But he gets very little contact and far fewer trips to the FT line.   The net result is still elite scoring efficiency, but not quite up there with what Thomas was posting.

Now, Thomas' last season with us was a truly historic offensive showing and shouldn't be the benchmark for what is expected of Irving.  Irving's scoring efficiency this year overall has been fantastic.

BUT ... the lack of free throws is a problem.   It's the loss of an important side effect that really helps your team:    Foul  pressure.   

Drawing fouls on the other team is a huge weapon in of itself because it can put their players on the bench, messing up the other coach's rotations and helping you on both offense and defense.

One could argue Isaiah's bully-ball driving and absorbing contact in mid air led to his downfall and demise of his body. I believe while Isaiah put up historical numbers, Irving's efficiency is still pretty top notch. I believe since Irving is a finesse player, he carves defenses, but tries to avoid lingering contact even when hit.

Well, Isaiah was used as an example because he is a similar small, quick guard who played in pretty much the exact same offensive system.  So he's easy to show the difference in why one gets to the line while the other doesn't.

But the techniques used by Isaiah aren't unique to him.   Guys from Paul Pierce to Cedric Maxwell to Michael Jordan to Lebron James to Kevin Durant all knew how to use contact to get to the line.   It's a skill.

And let's be clear, Isaiah had a rather unusual injury that surfaced due to a chronic issue (femoral socket impingement).   That took an extreme incident to become an issue.  Prior to that, Thomas had been a remarkably durable player.   He had missed very few games due to injury in his career before he finally had to give in during that Cavs ECF series.   And Kyrie Irving hasn't exactly been all that great at avoiding injury.

Both players came into the league on opposite ends of the 2011 draft.  Since then, despite missing pretty much all of last year and most of this year until a couple weeks ago, Isaiah has actually played in 477 games ... just slightly less than the 492 games that Kyrie has played in.   Prior to his hip injury, Thomas had missed far fewer games than Kyrie had.

Hmm... just looking at bb-ref ... wow.  It's only been 4 measly games, but Isaiah's numbers look pretty good for a guy who has missed that much time.   8 of 20 on threes, 14 trips to the FT line in just 68 minutes of play (thats 7.4 FTA/36).  Looks like he's picking right back up where he left off, though his per-game minutes are still modest.   

[PhoSita]

Imagine if Kyrie leaves and then the Celts sign IT to a full MLE deal this summer.

I doubt IT will ever be what he was in 2017 again.  But of course, many have doubted him before.

[mmmmm]

Imagine if Kyrie leaves and then the Celts sign IT to a full MLE deal this summer.

I doubt IT will ever be what he was in 2017 again.  But of course, many have doubted him before.

That would be mind-bending.   This blog would probably explode with back-and-forth on that.

The odds of IT ever being what he was in 2017 again are so small -- not just because he's coming back from injury.  It's also that it's highly improbable for any player to post that kind of offensive season.   It was one of the top offensive seasons in Celtic history.

[Monkhouse]

The thing that drives me nuts about this team is everything seems like an outside shot. They rarely seem to go to the paint. I’ll give it to Kyrie, he does attack the rim. But for some unexplainable reason, the referees rarely seem to call falls in Kyrie’s favor. Does he need to flop to get a call?

Do the refs have something against Tatum? It seems like every time he misses a shot (since he’s been in the league), he’s always making a gesture at the referees saying that he was fouled. Are the refs tired of his act and taking it out on the rest of the team?

This isn't really about the refs.   Yes, SOME refs are bizarrely inconsistent with other refs.  But overall, the Celtics don't get calls regardless of the refs.

The problem is twofold. 

a) We don't really drive all that much.  We are ranked 24th in the NBA in drives per game.

b) Even when we drive, we don't try to create contact.   In particular, Kyrie (responsible for the most of our drives) tries to avoid contact with the way he drives and shoots.   

Try to dig up some highlights of the way Isaiah Thomas would attack on a drive and compare them to highlights of Kyrie.   Thomas would purposely time the defender's body motion, anticipating the bump and then purposely play off the contact.  He'd use his off hand to get the shot off anyway if necessary and if he missed he'd go sink a couple of free throws.    Then net result was a season of historic scoring efficiency.

Kyrie, on his drives will use pull ups and dribble action to create space to try to get a clear shot off.  He actually ends up shooting these at excellent efficiency (because he isn't being jarred by bumps).  But he gets very little contact and far fewer trips to the FT line.   The net result is still elite scoring efficiency, but not quite up there with what Thomas was posting.

Now, Thomas' last season with us was a truly historic offensive showing and shouldn't be the benchmark for what is expected of Irving.  Irving's scoring efficiency this year overall has been fantastic.

BUT ... the lack of free throws is a problem.   It's the loss of an important side effect that really helps your team:    Foul  pressure.   

Drawing fouls on the other team is a huge weapon in of itself because it can put their players on the bench, messing up the other coach's rotations and helping you on both offense and defense.

One could argue Isaiah's bully-ball driving and absorbing contact in mid air led to his downfall and demise of his body. I believe while Isaiah put up historical numbers, Irving's efficiency is still pretty top notch. I believe since Irving is a finesse player, he carves defenses, but tries to avoid lingering contact even when hit.

Well, Isaiah was used as an example because he is a similar small, quick guard who played in pretty much the exact same offensive system.  So he's easy to show the difference in why one gets to the line while the other doesn't.

But the techniques used by Isaiah aren't unique to him.   Guys from Paul Pierce to Cedric Maxwell to Michael Jordan to Lebron James to Kevin Durant all knew how to use contact to get to the line.   It's a skill.

And let's be clear, Isaiah had a rather unusual injury that surfaced due to a chronic issue (femoral socket impingement).   That took an extreme incident to become an issue.  Prior to that, Thomas had been a remarkably durable player.   He had missed very few games due to injury in his career before he finally had to give in during that Cavs ECF series.   And Kyrie Irving hasn't exactly been all that great at avoiding injury.

Both players came into the league on opposite ends of the 2011 draft.  Since then, despite missing pretty much all of last year and most of this year until a couple weeks ago, Isaiah has actually played in 477 games ... just slightly less than the 492 games that Kyrie has played in.   Prior to his hip injury, Thomas had missed far fewer games than Kyrie had.

Hmm... just looking at bb-ref ... wow.  It's only been 4 measly games, but Isaiah's numbers look pretty good for a guy who has missed that much time.   8 of 20 on threes, 14 trips to the FT line in just 68 minutes of play (thats 7.4 FTA/36).  Looks like he's picking right back up where he left off, though his per-game minutes are still modest.

Thanks for posting that information. My question was more of a hypothetical, it wasn't a slight or anything to take against IT, because he is one of my most favorite Celtics next to PP, Rondo, and Smart. I always knew that Thomas had more of a durable career, which is why I am still hoping he tries to come back next year.

But yeah, Thomas has been nothing short of spectacular on his return.

Imagine if Kyrie leaves and then the Celts sign IT to a full MLE deal this summer.

I doubt IT will ever be what he was in 2017 again.  But of course, many have doubted him before.

Imagine if Kyrie stays, and then the Celtics sign IT to a full MLE deal this summer...


Game.

Celtics.