The Reasons Ainge Reached For JB

[Rosco917]

Last year during the playoffs the door was opened for he and Jayson to be the main scorers. He had a green light every time the ball was in his hands.

This season he has to play a team ball type of game. He needs to evaluate more, and find who has the best opportunity. This type of decision making often confuses young players.

What bothers me most is, with the number of games under his belt from playing two full seasons and playoffs there are few signs that he is developing any veteran decision-making ability.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Jamal Murray may not even be the future point guard for the Nuggets. Monte Morris is putting up reliable, uber-efficient numbers in his minutes, and the team as a whole is better on defense and offense when he plays instead of Murray.

The advanced numbers just don't like Murray very much. I thought at the draft he had the potential to be something like Damian Lillard, but I'm starting to think his upside is a tier below. How valuable is a offensive-minded guard whose ceiling is a solid starter? Ask Reggie Jackson, or Zach Lavine, or D'Angelo Russel, or Jordan Clarkson, or Dennis Schroeder.

You can get guys like that pretty easily right now in the NBA, as exemplified by the fact that they got Monte Morris in the 2nd round and he is probably out-performing Murray this year.

Even if Jaylen Brown is never an All-star (and I still think he has that upside), he plays at a position that is not as easy to replace. A solid non-all-star starting point guard is much less valuable than a solid non-all-star starting wing.

On that alone, Brown is a better pick than Murray. Hield is a different animal, because shooting is at a premium with the modern rules and playstyle. You could argue that Hield's upside is more valuable than Brown's, but again, since Hield is 26, that lowers his value.

I wanted Bender, but I was very, very wrong about that and have hopefully learned from my mistake. Most guys wanted Dunn, but I don't think that's an argument at this point. Lavert, Siakim, and D. Murray might have more upside than Brown (although that is seriously debatable), but Ainge would have been crucified for taking them.

Sabonis looks like a solid NBA player, but again, Brown fulfills a role that is more at a premium than Sabonis (although I really like Sabonis).

Overall, it had nothing to do with finding a Pierce-replacement. Brown was still the best talent on the board. I'm not sure how the next few years will look, but if Ingram continues to struggle to find an NBA role, and Simmons doesn't develop offense for the half-court, there is a possibility that Brown becomes the best player from that draft. He needs a defined role on the Cs, and he needs to keep working on his confidence and defensive timing, but if he becomes an All-NBA defender scoring 16-18 points a game (like in the playoffs last year), he could be a more valuable piece to a championship team than Simmons or Ingram.

He's my favorite player on the Cs. Other than Kyrie, he has more potential than any player to string together a sequence of offensive-defensive plays that a single-handedly send the Cs on a 8-0 run. He's done that against the Cavs and Warriors last year.

[PhoSita]

I wanted Bender, but I was very, very wrong about that and have hopefully learned from my mistake.

Me too.

I will always believe that Bender could have been a super role player if he'd been drafted by a team capable of developing young players.


I still don't understand how any NBA team in 2018 could be dumb enough to draft a teenager from Europe and fail to even add an end-of-bench veteran that speaks that kid's language.

If I ran a team drafting a guy like Bender I'd overpay to sign 2-3 Euro players that spoke the same language as my rook, ideally guys that had played with or against him overseas.  I'd also go ahead and hire an assistant coach familiar with the European style of play to help acclimate the kid to NBA ball.


The Suns threw away that pick on Bender from the beginning.

My hope is that after he leaves the Suns, he goes back overseas, plays there for a few years, and gets another shot at the NBA four or five years from now when he's gotten some seasoning, gained some confidence, and can re-enter the NBA on his terms, with low expectations.



Regarding Murray, I still think he can become a CJ McCollum type player.  I don't think he's a natural point.

[mmmmm]

The last few posts in this thread have been real good.  Thoughtful stuff.

[ederson]

@DefenseWinsChamps

I think the bender ship has sailed. He made some not very wise decisions and since he was 15 16 has has very rarely played meaningfull minutes. I don't think he has got the fire in him... He didn't manage to play in an awful maccabi and now the same with the awful suns

Getting back in europe looks like a one way road

[PhoSita]

On the subject of player development being largely dependent on how the drafting team chooses to use a player ... this "Point Winslow" thing in Miami is pretty interesting.

The idea of Ainge trading a billion picks for Winslow now seems super cringey in retrospect, but who knows what Winslow would look like now if he'd been drafted by a different team with different notions about his ideal role?

Maybe he'd look the same, but it's fascinating.  Not often you see a guy that spends the first few years of his career as a 3-and-D 3/4 getting put in a lead ballhandler role.  The Heat need him to do that because of injuries, sure, but I think there's a tendency toward determinism when it comes to assuming young players turn out the way they do because that's who they were all along, as though player development is akin to unearthing gemstones as opposed to, say, baking bread.

[mctyson]

 Luigi Datome, Gerald Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Crowder, Coty Clarke, John Holland, Chris Babb, Chris Johnson.

 Those are the SFs A.P. After Pierce. It was a long miserable struggle to find the 6'6" athletic, strong, cover anyone type of athlete that Pierce was and Jaylen is. With that Said Jaylen is an important player on nearly any roster. Hes an asset.

 Hield was the best player at the time of the draft and Buddy is a perfect fit for today's game. He's a lights out shooter and solid defender with length.

Jamal Murray was the best long term prospect by a considerable margain. Period. He drafted out of need instead of taking the best player on the board.

 He didn't know we were getting Tatum and Hayward, if he did. Rest assured he would have went in a different direction.

If that is not 20/20 hindsight I do not know what is.

Most everybody wanted Ainge to select Kris Dunn or Buddy Heild with that pick, mainly for the Jimmy Butler trade rumor.  I would rather have Jaylen Brown over all three of those guys.

 I can prove people like Smartacus, myself, Larbrd and others wanted Murray Predraft. And Hield come on, the guy went nuts his last year of college ball and looked like an easy top 3 pick.

 To be clear I want Jaylen to be the best player in the draft class obviously. If I were his coach I'd tell him to go to the Rim every chance he gets.

People booed the pick at the draft party because it was not Dunn or Hield, because they though Butler was coming.  Facts.  There are very few people who wanted to use the top 3 pick on Jamal Murray.

I would rather have Jaylen Brown then everyone, even if he is playing like crap.

[KG Living Legend]

 Luigi Datome, Gerald Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Crowder, Coty Clarke, John Holland, Chris Babb, Chris Johnson.

 Those are the SFs A.P. After Pierce. It was a long miserable struggle to find the 6'6" athletic, strong, cover anyone type of athlete that Pierce was and Jaylen is. With that Said Jaylen is an important player on nearly any roster. Hes an asset.

 Hield was the best player at the time of the draft and Buddy is a perfect fit for today's game. He's a lights out shooter and solid defender with length.

Jamal Murray was the best long term prospect by a considerable margain. Period. He drafted out of need instead of taking the best player on the board.

 He didn't know we were getting Tatum and Hayward, if he did. Rest assured he would have went in a different direction.

If that is not 20/20 hindsight I do not know what is.

Most everybody wanted Ainge to select Kris Dunn or Buddy Heild with that pick, mainly for the Jimmy Butler trade rumor.  I would rather have Jaylen Brown over all three of those guys.

 I can prove people like Smartacus, myself, Larbrd and others wanted Murray Predraft. And Hield come on, the guy went nuts his last year of college ball and looked like an easy top 3 pick.

 To be clear I want Jaylen to be the best player in the draft class obviously. If I were his coach I'd tell him to go to the Rim every chance he gets.

People booed the pick at the draft party because it was not Dunn or Hield, because they though Butler was coming.  Facts.  There are very few people who wanted to use the top 3 pick on Jamal Murray.

I would rather have Jaylen Brown then everyone, even if he is playing like crap.

 I'd say there was around 10 people that wanted Murray third. Myself, Larbrd, and Smartacus are 3 right off the top.

[KG Living Legend]

Jamal Murray may not even be the future point guard for the Nuggets. Monte Morris is putting up reliable, uber-efficient numbers in his minutes, and the team as a whole is better on defense and offense when he plays instead of Murray.

The advanced numbers just don't like Murray very much. I thought at the draft he had the potential to be something like Damian Lillard, but I'm starting to think his upside is a tier below. How valuable is a offensive-minded guard whose ceiling is a solid starter? Ask Reggie Jackson, or Zach Lavine, or D'Angelo Russel, or Jordan Clarkson, or Dennis Schroeder.

You can get guys like that pretty easily right now in the NBA, as exemplified by the fact that they got Monte Morris in the 2nd round and he is probably out-performing Murray this year.

Even if Jaylen Brown is never an All-star (and I still think he has that upside), he plays at a position that is not as easy to replace. A solid non-all-star starting point guard is much less valuable than a solid non-all-star starting wing.

On that alone, Brown is a better pick than Murray. Hield is a different animal, because shooting is at a premium with the modern rules and playstyle. You could argue that Hield's upside is more valuable than Brown's, but again, since Hield is 26, that lowers his value.

I wanted Bender, but I was very, very wrong about that and have hopefully learned from my mistake. Most guys wanted Dunn, but I don't think that's an argument at this point. Lavert, Siakim, and D. Murray might have more upside than Brown (although that is seriously debatable), but Ainge would have been crucified for taking them.

Sabonis looks like a solid NBA player, but again, Brown fulfills a role that is more at a premium than Sabonis (although I really like Sabonis).

Overall, it had nothing to do with finding a Pierce-replacement. Brown was still the best talent on the board. I'm not sure how the next few years will look, but if Ingram continues to struggle to find an NBA role, and Simmons doesn't develop offense for the half-court, there is a possibility that Brown becomes the best player from that draft. He needs a defined role on the Cs, and he needs to keep working on his confidence and defensive timing, but if he becomes an All-NBA defender scoring 16-18 points a game (like in the playoffs last year), he could be a more valuable piece to a championship team than Simmons or Ingram.

He's my favorite player on the Cs. Other than Kyrie, he has more potential than any player to string together a sequence of offensive-defensive plays that a single-handedly send the Cs on a 8-0 run. He's done that against the Cavs and Warriors last year.

 I don't think you can say it has nothing to do with finding a Paul Pierce replacement. We traded Perkins for a Paul Pierce replacement in Jeff Green before pierce even left, that didn't work out the way we had hoped.

 The thing that Danny didn't know was that the real Paul Pierce replacement was coming next year in Jayson Tatum. I acknowledge it is super hard to find these 6'6" super athletic strong versatile athletes.

 The Celtics would definitely be better off this year with Buddy Hield. I would argue we're better off in the future with Jamal Murray and no more he's replacement is not better than him.


 As far as role on the team tomorrow Murray would be the perfect sixth man off the bench for the Celtics.

[hwangjini_1]

The last few posts in this thread have been real good.  Thoughtful stuff.

Agreed. But then, that is Pho’s phorte. 

[playdream]

Last year during the playoffs the door was opened for he and Jayson to be the main scorers. He had a green light every time the ball was in his hands.

This season he has to play a team ball type of game. He needs to evaluate more, and find who has the best opportunity. This type of decision making often confuses young players.

What bothers me most is, with the number of games under his belt from playing two full seasons and playoffs there are few signs that he is developing any veteran decision-making ability.

His passing has grown alot as well as his freethrow, his midrange seem to improve, but his lack of BBIQ and yes decision making on and off the court still stands out, what bothers me most is he don't seem to have the right attitude towards basketball

[tazzmaniac]

Last year during the playoffs the door was opened for he and Jayson to be the main scorers. He had a green light every time the ball was in his hands.

This season he has to play a team ball type of game. He needs to evaluate more, and find who has the best opportunity. This type of decision making often confuses young players.

What bothers me most is, with the number of games under his belt from playing two full seasons and playoffs there are few signs that he is developing any veteran decision-making ability.

His passing has grown alot as well as his freethrow, his midrange seem to improve, but his lack of BBIQ and yes decision making on and off the court still stands out, what bothers me most is he don't seem to have the right attitude towards basketball

His freethrows improving?  3rd straight season shooting ~65%. 

[playdream]

Last year during the playoffs the door was opened for he and Jayson to be the main scorers. He had a green light every time the ball was in his hands.

This season he has to play a team ball type of game. He needs to evaluate more, and find who has the best opportunity. This type of decision making often confuses young players.

What bothers me most is, with the number of games under his belt from playing two full seasons and playoffs there are few signs that he is developing any veteran decision-making ability.

His passing has grown alot as well as his freethrow, his midrange seem to improve, but his lack of BBIQ and yes decision making on and off the court still stands out, what bothers me most is he don't seem to have the right attitude towards basketball

His freethrows improving?  3rd straight season shooting ~65%.

The number didn't show improve or even worse, but his form and confidence took a huge step
Overall i'm not worried about his shooting

[gouki88]

Last year during the playoffs the door was opened for he and Jayson to be the main scorers. He had a green light every time the ball was in his hands.

This season he has to play a team ball type of game. He needs to evaluate more, and find who has the best opportunity. This type of decision making often confuses young players.

What bothers me most is, with the number of games under his belt from playing two full seasons and playoffs there are few signs that he is developing any veteran decision-making ability.

His passing has grown alot as well as his freethrow, his midrange seem to improve, but his lack of BBIQ and yes decision making on and off the court still stands out, what bothers me most is he don't seem to have the right attitude towards basketball

His freethrows improving?  3rd straight season shooting ~65%.

The number didn't show improve or even worse, but his form and confidence took a huge step
Overall i'm not worried about his shooting

If the numbers don't improve then it's pretty meaningless if it looks nicer

[Hoopvortex]

Jamal Murray may not even be the future point guard for the Nuggets.

Jamal may not even be a point guard. That depends on what you mean, of course, and it may not mean as much playing for Denver, when what they need most is guards who can stroke it from outside and cut. Then again, there are times when Jokic has to go out of the game, so a “traditional point” might be just what they need; and Jamal is not that.

I didn’t think Murray was going to make it in the league - really awfully undeveloped body coming in, didn’t stay in a defensive stance, insufficient strength. That’s a bad sign, usually, because it’s probably the best indicator of work ethic. But he was very young, and I’ve got to hand it to him - he’s done great work on his body in the last couple of years. 

His shooting this year so far has been mediocre, and since that’s supposed to be his calling card you have to wonder if he can stick with Denver - it won’t be because of his defense, at any rate. I don’t think that Morris is his main competition, by the way, but rather Malik Beasley (who is 22) and Gary Harris. Malik is a good shooter all over the floor (as Jamal is not), and particularly good around the rim.

Monte Morris is putting up reliable, uber-efficient numbers in his minutes, and the team as a whole is better on defense and offense when he plays instead of Murray.

Love Monte, real springy and defends, gets after it, gets in the paint, takes super-good care of the ball - and if the 3pt% is real he’ll have a long career.

The advanced numbers just don’t like Murray very much.

At the moment most numbers don’t like him very much. Looks like “rotation player on a playoff team”, or similar, is his upside. But he’s still young.

You can get guys like that pretty easily right now in the NBA, as exemplified by the fact that they got Monte Morris in the 2nd round and he is probably out-performing Murray this year.

In fact in Murray’s own draft Denver took Hernangomez and Beasley after him; they might both have more value than Murray at this point. Having said that, his coach is certainly putting him in games.

Even if Jaylen Brown is never an All-star (and I still think he has that upside)...

I wouldn’t bet against him.

Fans seem, strangely, to have forgotten what he did last year.

You could argue that Hield's upside is more valuable than Brown's, but again, since Hield is 26, that lowers his value.

I wouldn’t.

I like Hield, and he’s got the right coach to work on his defensive deficiencies. Brings leadership, good teammate, looks like at a minimum he has a future as a top shooter.

But Brown has a more diverse game and in particular gives you élite individual defense - crucial skill for a team that wants to cover the arc and not double-team.

Lavert, Siakim, and D. Murray might have more upside than Brown (although that is seriously debatable), but Ainge would have been crucified for taking them.

So interesting how much more value these guys have than most of the lottery picks that year.

Levert’s draft stock was depressed by an injury, and you have to wonder a little about his future, given the recent catastrophic one.

LOVE Siakam. Outstanding (and growing) defender, has his FT rate above the gold standard of .300, and makes ‘em at an A-minus rate; for a while he was leading the league in 2pt% - he’s shot .728 at the rim this year (wow); he’s gradually increased his 3pt% as the season has gone on to an acceptable .333; he’s become an excellent ball-handler, especially for his size.

Sabonis looks like a solid NBA player, but again, Brown fulfills a role that is more at a premium than Sabonis (although I really like Sabonis).

I’m perhaps a tick or two more positive than you about Sabonis; I think that his upside is something like “rotation player on a contender”.

He needs a defined role on the Cs, and he needs to keep working on his confidence and defensive timing, but if he becomes an All-NBA defender scoring 16-18 points a game (like in the playoffs last year), he could be a more valuable piece to a championship team than Simmons or Ingram.

The rotation swirl that the Celtics started the year with seemed to affect Brown more than anyone (back spasms, plantar fasciitis, illness, and a hand injury have played a role, too, in this short season). He was, very uncharacteristically, a mediocre defender through November into December.  He’s gotten his mojo back on D, though his offense is coming along slower.

As you point out, this guy has shown that he can take the opponent’s top wing every night and score at a 2nd/3rd banana rate.

I haven’t noticed much in this thread about JB’s multiple injury issues; but surely we should take those into account in evaluating his production this season.