It's unfortunate for Al that his considerable contributions to the Celtics get minimized as soon as you bring money into the picture. Because he's on max, people expect him to put up Anthony Davis type numbers when he is really more like an upgraded Draymond Green guy:
Per Game
Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Draymond Green 2013 2018 454 306 27.6 3.3 7.6 .438 0.9 2.8 .327 2.4 4.8 .504 .499 1.7 2.4 .705 1.2 5.7 6.9 4.5 1.4 1.1 1.9 2.8 9.3
2 Al Horford 2008 2018 707 703 33.2 6.0 11.4 .526 0.4 1.1 .368 5.6 10.3 .542 .543 1.8 2.4 .748 2.2 6.4 8.6 3.1 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.3 14.2
Per 36 Minutes
Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Draymond Green 2013 2018 454 306 12512 4.4 10.0 .438 1.2 3.7 .327 3.2 6.3 .504 2.2 3.1 .705 1.6 7.4 9.0 5.9 1.8 1.4 2.5 3.6 12.1
2 Al Horford 2008 2018 707 703 23467 6.5 12.4 .526 0.4 1.2 .368 6.1 11.2 .542 1.9 2.6 .748 2.4 6.9 9.3 3.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 15.4
Advanced
Rk Player From To G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
1 Draymond Green 2013 2018 454 12512 15.7 .535 .371 .309 5.1 21.3 13.6 21.8 2.4 3.0 18.3 16.7 14.5 24.0 38.5 .148 0.2 3.9 4.1 19.2
2 Al Horford 2008 2018 707 23467 18.9 .569 .094 .210 7.7 21.9 14.9 15.8 1.3 2.9 11.5 19.4 43.1 34.1 77.3 .158 0.8 2.3 3.1 30
We can argue about whether Draymond Green deserves a max contract but I don't think too many people would be understating his importance to the Warriors.
I feel it's the same for Al. Unfortunately in our stat driven era it's all about the numbers and he will never be able to escape it. I'm sure Danny and the Celtics brass don't think he is being overpaid though (at least not currently). In two more years, who knows?
To me the bigger issue with Al is that there is a big deviation between his best and his worst performances. He averages 14-8-3 but he has too many games where he is 5-6-4 or something similar. It's those performances that make people question the money paid.
Draymond Green is better than Al Horford
He's actually not. I know the media likes to try to fool people into believing otherwise, but it's a false narrative.
I can promise you, if the Celtics had Draymond Green in place of Al Horford they'd be a worse team.
Think about it the other way: suppose GS could play Horford/Durant/Iggy/Klay/Steph at the end of games.
You've got 3 out of the top 8 3pt shooters in the game...AND Steph Curry. (Who would be much higher if he shot fewer 28-footers.)
they'd also be a mich worse rebounding team, a worse defensive team, a worse passing team, and a bit less versatile. Draymond is better than Horford.
The only advantage Draymond has is that he is maybe slightly more versatile on defense.
~Horford is the better passerGreen's top three targets are Curry, Durant, and Thompson, which account for 67.6% of his assists. Curry, Durant, and Thompson shoot a combined 1.2% worse on passes from Green than on all other shot attempts. Durant is the only one of these three who shoot a higher percentage off of passes from Green. In fact, the team as a whole shoots 4.0% worse off of passes from Green than on all other shots.
Horford's top three targets are Irving, Smart, and Rozier, which account for 44.9% of his assists. Irving, Smart, and Rozier shoot a combined 6.0% higher off of passes from Horford, and none of them worse individually. The team as a whole shoots 4.2% better off of passes from Horford than on all other shot attempts.
In other words, Green's assist total are inflated by who he plays with, yet the team actually shoots better when the pass doesn't come from Green. Conversely, Horford spreads the ball around much more, and his team actually shoots better when they receive a pass from Horford.
~Horford is the better defenderHorford contests 15.9 shots per game and holds his defensive assignments to 6.1% worse shooting than their normal percentage, including 4.7% worse from three and 7.7% worse from two.
Green contests 14.4 shots per game and holds his defensive assignments to 4.6% worse shooting than their normal percentage, including 1.7% worse from three and 6.3% worse from two.
In other words, Horford contests more shots in less minutes, and hold his defensive assignment to a worse net shooting percentage across the board. Horford also has more defensive wins shares and a higher DBPM.
~Horford is the better shooter and scorerPer 36 minutes Horford scores 14.6 points on 49.9% shooting, including 42.9% from three, for a TS% of 58.4%.
Per 36 minutes Green scores 12.1 points on 45.6% shooting, including 29.3% from three, for a TS% of 55.5%.
Horford scores more on better efficiency. This is cut and dry.
They're about equal reboundersHorford actually outrebounds Green this season, per possession. Horford collects 11.9 rebounds per 100 possessions, while Green collects 11.4. They are equal on a per minute basis, however, at 8.6 rebounds per 36 minutes.
The bottom line is, Horford is objectively a better player by pretty much every measure. These are the facts.
Topic: Big Lead Article: "Al Horford Has Become a Big Problem for the Celtics" (Read 13457 times)