Author Topic: Rotation Predictions  (Read 4350 times)

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Re: Rotation Predictions
« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2017, 06:39:21 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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So I'm just not getting the hand-wringing here.

Something tells me that you've mistaken me for someone else.  I'm very positive about what Danny Ainge has done this off-season, and think that he's improved the team.

I was addressing the issue of who starts alongside Al Horford.  I can see arguments for Morris or Baynes, though, like you, I think it will be Morris. The downside of that is not just what opponent Morris guards but what opponent Horford guards - that means hard work for Big Al. I also pointed out that Morris is a lousy defensive rebounder, even if you look at his best seasons.

Baynes starting makes sense - he would basically take over Amir's role from last season. But the downside of that is that your spacing is less good than last year, and Al has to guard out on the floor.

So I don't string this thread out too long ...

I think that this discussion is a lot more interesting, and a lot more to do with actual basketball, than the current frenzy about whose feelings get hurt out of the blockbuster melodrama going on.


Defensively, is there any reason we don't think that Morris (smaller PFs) and Baynes (Bigs) can't fill that role? Is there any evidence they can't?

I'd say that Baynes is on a par, or almost, with Amir.  They are both outstanding defensive players! There are a lot of ways to look at that, of course - but that's not something I was addressing (at all). Starting Baynes allows you to save wear and tear on Horford.  That's good! But then Horford has got to move around more, and away from the basket, to guard the opponent's second big, or god help us, a stretch 4. That's bad!

I'm betting that Morris steps up his defense this year.  He'll be guarding bigger players a lot, and it would be too much to expect much defensive rebounding from him. But he's in a new setting, and he'll have competition...

Offensively, Amir was a negative on the court last year.

He's not a scorer, but offense is a team game, and he does all the little things that get you good shots.  No, Amir is a net plus on offense.

His assist rate was good but part of that is the offense he's in.

Not persuaded by your argument. "The offense" does not throw a pass, a player does. But the bigger point is that assist%s are a proxy for ball movement, and that impacts spacing. Baynes is a black hole, not to put too fine a point on it.

So against smaller guys Morris is your man.

Against bigger guys you put in Baynes.

Very logical. On the other hand, Amir started 77 games last season, so it looks as though Brad is more of the school of setting his starting lineup and sticking with it.

However, those smaller lineups are much bigger than last year. We won't be putting a lineup of 5'9" and 6'2" with a 6'4" coming off the bench in the back court if the trade goes through. That was a limiting factor last year. We were just too small to put Crowder in at PF when IT/Bradley were on the floor and it often didn't work.

Good points.  I would add that Crowder was hardly ideal as a swing/stretch 4 (or whatever you want to call it), though Brad pleaded small sample size; and that arrangement did seem to work in the playoffs. I tend to think that the bigger 1-3 or whatever makes it less necessary to have a second big on the floor.

Now I never considered Jerebko a big because he doesn't play that big.

He might not be a big, but he played as a big. He's a tweener - an undersized 4 who does not effectively switch onto wings.



Overall, we didn't get smaller.

Once again, I did not say that. But there are fewer bigs and more swings.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 06:46:20 PM by ThePaintedArea »