ESPN's Pelton on a Possible Outline of a Butler Deal

[Boris Badenov]

Butler's an All-NBA player, so I'm thinking, what are odds that the Bulls get one All-NBA player out of the deal structured around Brown/protected BKN 17?

Going back a decade (2005-2014), picks #2-4 have yielded an All-NBA player 7/30 times. If you limit the analysis to "good" drafts like this one's supposed to be, you get around 40%, maybe (it's subjective as to what's a "good draft").

I guess if you think Brown has a 20% chance at All-NBA (EXCEEDINGLY optimistic given what he's done), then you have around a 40% shot at one All-NBA guy, and an 8% chance at two All-NBA guys. Plus Bradley who's capable of being a starter on nearly any team in the league.

I moved the numbers a bit either way, and bottom line, getting a Butler-type player in return is far from a sure thing, and the odds of getting someone *better* than Butler are really low. (The best players taken in that range over the last decade are Chris Paul, Harden, Westbrook and Durant, for the sake of comparison).

Still, you can see the appeal from Chicago's view, even if they are getting something like two quarters and two dimes for a fifty cent piece.

On the other side, draft picks are worth far more in trade than the expected productivity of their draft slot, so maybe that swings the pendulum back. A #2-4 pick in the best draft of the last 7-8 years is as tantalizing as it gets.

My personal take is that there's no way I want us to surrender the 2017 pick unless it's protected at least for #1. We don't get many shots at #1, much less in a very good draft. And I'd be bummed not experiencing all that anxiety leading up to the lottery. As weird as it sounds.

[gift]

I wouldn't be concerned with getting a deal done. I'd be concerned with getting the best value, and if that's holding onto the pieces that keep Chicago from doing the deal, then that's the move to make.

If your bias is figuring out how to make the deal work for Chicago, you're working from a negative negotiating position.

[sirnastee]

If the Pels got Cousins for Heild (#6 last year) and a 2017 likely to be between #13-19 there's no way Butler gets this deal as described.

I would go with the Nets 2017 (top 2 protected) plus Bradley, Rozier, and Zeller.

Celts get Butler + Chicago's 2017 1st.

We shouldn't use the Cousins trade as the standard since Divac is way worse than even the incompetent Bulls management.  The Bulls have made series of questionable moves since Jordan left, but even they will laugh at Divac and the Kings. 

[Eja117]

Couldn't find the last Butler trade thread within 1 minute:

Summary:

Pelton's ESPN insider piece on possible BOS-Butler trade. Pelton is ESPN's resident BB stats guru and analyzes deals based on production compared to contract (there are some shortcomings to that method, but here are some shortcomings to any analysis). Excerpts:


Outlined Deal

According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, the Bulls are seeking a package of a pick expected to be in the top five selections, a current starter and a top prospect in return for Butler.

Starters:

Including Crowder should be a non-starter. Though not as valuable on the court as Butler, Crowder -- whose plus-3.7 RPM ranks 21st -- has an even better contract.

Because he has just one season remaining on his contract, and because he doesn't rate as well by RPM or box-score stats as Crowder, Bradley is a much better option from Boston's point of view. I estimate his net value at just $3.7 million, though the Celtics surely place more value on him as a starter. Smart falls somewhere in between, with an estimated net value of $17.5 million for the remainder of his cheap rookie contract.

Top 5 Pick

To boil down Pelton's analysis of the value of our 2017 pick, Pelton suggests protecting the top pick for the #1 selection (and it defaults to the 2018 pick) to make the overall deal fairer to BOS.


Top Prospect (by default it’s Jaylen Brown)

That leaves Brown, the trickiest part of a potential Butler deal to evaluate. The Celtics viewed him as the third-best player in last year's draft, and a typical No. 3 pick would provide about $27 million in net value above his remaining rookie salary -- similar to the value of this year's Brooklyn pick. I would include Brown in a Butler offer because his statistical production has yet to match that of the typical No. 3 pick, but Boston might reasonably balk at giving up him, Smart and the Nets' pick.

===

- I like all three of the vets, but I agree with Pelton as of this moment because Smart appears to be turning a corner. AB is IMO the best on-ball defensive guard in the NBA, and he's a better offensive player than Smart, but his contract is going to jump and Smart's made a huge improvement recently. Also, AB's strictly a 2 guard offensively and has less position versatility defensively. One of the worse passing guards in the NBA for my money, though it’s his only glaring weakness. You could pair Butler and Smart in the backcourt, but AB and Butler does not work at all. Finally, Crowder's production for his contract is one of the best in the NBA, so he stays.

- Putting protection on the 2017 pick appeals to me.

- Biggest hangup is Brown for me. I am not as high on him as others  (and apparently those include CBS and DA), but I've been wrong before and I'd leave it to DA, to whom I delegate such matters.

Butler's a top 15 player and fills a big need as another go-to scorer. We can get the necessary frontcourt players with Zizic and Jackson/2018 pick plus depth.  Not as high on Fultz (leaning Jackson actually as of today) or Brown and could be wrong on both. Would probably do this and given my hesitation, tells me it's a reasonable deal (especially compared to the homer deals being floated around here). In Danny I trust though.

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If you have ESPN Insider access, the link is here:

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/18731752/should-celtics-trade-potential-no-1-pick-jimmy-butler-nba

Have a good time with Butler Chicago