At this point, Fultz is the clear #1 but not by a large margin. I could see Jackson, Tatum and Giles possibly going ahead of him. I don't see any of the other PGs doing so.
My biggest issue with Fultz is that he grew up in ACC country but chose to go West to play for a mediocre program and mediocre coach. Just like Simmons last year he basically threw away a year of development. Very unlikely that we'll get to see him play against top talent in meaningful games.
Aren't there 4 top 25 teams in his conference? Including UCLA meaning he will match up against Ball a few times? And other good players/teams?
Yeah, his conference still has serious programs to go up against, his team is just not equipped to make any long runs. I think that's how he might of wanted it and honestly it's a solid plan. Ball out of his mind against these top teams and then while the other top players are worried about tournament runs, Fultz would be getting ready for the draft process and life in the NBA. He has a good agent.
If this is true, then it could be real trouble for the one-and-done model.
I was reading just today about some NCAAF players who are sitting out their bowl games. I think there the injury risk is higher but it's a similar line of reasoning. Either way the best players sit out the highest-profile college championship games.
It's less of a deal for college basketball. They have a tournament that includes so many teams that the vast majority of top prospects will be in it. You give competitive athletes a chance to be a champion, and they show up. The glorified exhibitions of college bowl games, however, are a different story. The NIT could be in a little trouble, since it's more akin to the consolation prizes of most Bowl games, but even then the number of top draft picks who could avoid it is very low. Ben Simmons, and his entire team, did last year, but that always felt like a weird situation the entire season.
The other thing I'd note is that the one and done situation probably helps college basketball. The kids who have sat out bowl games have all been top running backs, who have put in 3 or 4 years in at college. When you've made it that far, the risk of tearing an ACL far outweighs the reward of winning an exhibition game no one will remember in three years. One-and-done stars have more to play for and have put less wear on their bodies. I think eliminating one-and-done would more likely create this situation than help prevent it.
