ESPN Projection with Horford (and KD)

[colincb]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16711873/boston-celtics-al-horford-kevin-durant-better-cleveland-cavaliers-nba

Pelton projects 5 more wins with Horford.

Overall, RPM pegs Boston for about 53 wins, which would have tied for the league's sixth-best record last season. With the Raptors likely to take a step backward after the best season in franchise history, I'd consider the Celtics the early favorites to finish second in the East behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Of course, Horford's greatest value probably won't be evident until the playoffs. After all, depth, defense and execution meant Boston was already a good regular-season team. That didn't translate in the playoffs, when the Celtics couldn't find enough capable two-way options to compete against Atlanta after losing Avery Bradley to injury.

Most notably, Boston's starting frontcourt of Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger couldn't defend mobile Hawks counterparts Horford and Paul Millsap. Presumably, Horford takes Sullinger's spot in the starting lineup, upgrading the Celtics' shooting and making them more athletic defensively.

Adding Durant takes us to contender:

Adding Durant would push the Celtics' offense from good to great. Just two teams -- the Warriors and Durant's Thunder -- were better relative to league average offensively than RPM projects for Boston with Durant and Horford.

Altogether, that translates into a projected 58 wins, which actually would have won the East last year. Cleveland finished with just 57 wins, though a healthy Kyrie Irving and the presence of another legit challenger would probably push the Cavaliers to a stronger regular season in 2016-17.

The Celtics with Durant and Horford project slightly better by RPM than the Thunder (with Durant), whose projection after adding Victor Oladipo called for 56 or 57 wins in 2016-17.

Moreover, Boston has more avenues for improvement going forward. No matter how good the Celtics get, they've got a chance to pick high in the lottery the next two seasons thanks to a 2017 pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets and holding the Nets' 2018 first-round pick outright.

Boston also has its core players locked up, while Oklahoma City star Russell Westbrook can become an unrestricted free agent next summer. None of the Celtics' rotation players can become an unrestricted free agent until after the 2017-18 season, when Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas are due to become free agents.

Last week, I projected how the teams in the Durant hunt might perform with him over the next three seasons. Adding Horford doesn't dramatically improve Boston's projection, which already called for 60-plus wins in 2017-18 and 2018-19.

But it does solidify the Celtics as the team with the best long-term outlook with Durant aside from the Golden State Warriors. Among the other teams, only Boston can expect to keep getting better in subsequent seasons after adding Durant.

Our evaluation of the Horford signing shouldn't hinge on whether Durant joins him in Celtics' green. Either way, adding Horford is a coup for Boston and a big step forward in the team's long-term plan -- they add a player who helps now and might attract other players later. And the Celtics have a chance to reach the Eastern Conference finals with or without Durant.

But if Durant joins up, it would turn Horford's signing from one that shifts the team's fortunes to one that shifts the entire league, with Boston a serious contender to win its 18th championship banner and then some.

[hpantazo]

This is a great analysis. Adding Durant would clearly make us perennial contenders for 4-5 years.

[Robb]

The caveat should always be mentioned that for many Pelton was a dummy for saying Brown would be a bad pick.  Just keep it fresh in your minds that you're putting your thoughts in writing and if you disregarded Pelton for that, championing him for this makes you look foolish.

[trickybilly]

Can we just offer Avery and IT 5 year 200mill deals now?

[incoherent]

L

The caveat should always be mentioned that for many Pelton was a dummy for saying Brown would be a bad pick.  Just keep it fresh in your minds that you're putting your thoughts in writing and if you disregarded Pelton for that, championing him for this makes you look foolish.

Luckily he just relaying information from a statistical model that certainly someone else built.

[crimson_stallion]

I agree - a very good analysis, and pretty realistic I think. 

I do believe that adding Horford (and bringing back the rest of last year's crew, sans Turner) on it's own moves us forward a significant margin.  Certainly not enough to be considered contenders, but enough to the point where I think we would be a lock in favourites to finish 2nd in the East.

As they say, adding Durant pushes us well beyond that.

In the short term there really is no negative tot he Horford signing - there is no possible way that it makes us anything but better.  In the long term there are risks, but if Durant joins us that all goes away.

[meangreenmachine]

Barring serious injuries to Durant, Horford and Thomas, I think we're a 55-60 win team next year with the roster as constituted (perhaps add a veteran minimum contract at center). We could easily win the East (although I would expect an epic ECF showdown with Cleveland) and anything could happen in the Finals.

[Greenbean]

The caveat should always be mentioned that for many Pelton was a dummy for saying Brown would be a bad pick.  Just keep it fresh in your minds that you're putting your thoughts in writing and if you disregarded Pelton for that, championing him for this makes you look foolish.

Um ok?

How about advancing the discussion and giving your opinion on the analysis.

I forgot why i stopped reading this forum. Have to sift through too many strawman attacks.

[Greenbean]

I just got done telling my buddy 53-56 wins with roster as is now so clearly i agree with the model.

Statistics and my gut tells me this is a great move. As long as the horford deal doesnt tie them up, and it shouldnt, then this is a home run.

[LarBrd33]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16711873/boston-celtics-al-horford-kevin-durant-better-cleveland-cavaliers-nba

Pelton projects 5 more wins with Horford.

Overall, RPM pegs Boston for about 53 wins, which would have tied for the league's sixth-best record last season. With the Raptors likely to take a step backward after the best season in franchise history, I'd consider the Celtics the early favorites to finish second in the East behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Of course, Horford's greatest value probably won't be evident until the playoffs. After all, depth, defense and execution meant Boston was already a good regular-season team. That didn't translate in the playoffs, when the Celtics couldn't find enough capable two-way options to compete against Atlanta after losing Avery Bradley to injury.

Most notably, Boston's starting frontcourt of Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger couldn't defend mobile Hawks counterparts Horford and Paul Millsap. Presumably, Horford takes Sullinger's spot in the starting lineup, upgrading the Celtics' shooting and making them more athletic defensively.

Adding Durant takes us to contender:

Adding Durant would push the Celtics' offense from good to great. Just two teams -- the Warriors and Durant's Thunder -- were better relative to league average offensively than RPM projects for Boston with Durant and Horford.

Altogether, that translates into a projected 58 wins, which actually would have won the East last year. Cleveland finished with just 57 wins, though a healthy Kyrie Irving and the presence of another legit challenger would probably push the Cavaliers to a stronger regular season in 2016-17.

The Celtics with Durant and Horford project slightly better by RPM than the Thunder (with Durant), whose projection after adding Victor Oladipo called for 56 or 57 wins in 2016-17.

Moreover, Boston has more avenues for improvement going forward. No matter how good the Celtics get, they've got a chance to pick high in the lottery the next two seasons thanks to a 2017 pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets and holding the Nets' 2018 first-round pick outright.

Boston also has its core players locked up, while Oklahoma City star Russell Westbrook can become an unrestricted free agent next summer. None of the Celtics' rotation players can become an unrestricted free agent until after the 2017-18 season, when Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas are due to become free agents.

Last week, I projected how the teams in the Durant hunt might perform with him over the next three seasons. Adding Horford doesn't dramatically improve Boston's projection, which already called for 60-plus wins in 2017-18 and 2018-19.

But it does solidify the Celtics as the team with the best long-term outlook with Durant aside from the Golden State Warriors. Among the other teams, only Boston can expect to keep getting better in subsequent seasons after adding Durant.

Our evaluation of the Horford signing shouldn't hinge on whether Durant joins him in Celtics' green. Either way, adding Horford is a coup for Boston and a big step forward in the team's long-term plan -- they add a player who helps now and might attract other players later. And the Celtics have a chance to reach the Eastern Conference finals with or without Durant.

But if Durant joins up, it would turn Horford's signing from one that shifts the team's fortunes to one that shifts the entire league, with Boston a serious contender to win its 18th championship banner and then some.

Great stuff

I actually think projecting 58 wins for the team (with KD and Horford) is a very conservative estimate. 

Over the past two seasons, the Thunder have played at a 37 win pace without Durant - a 57 win pace with Durant.

Our only sample size of Atlanta without Horford was in 2013-14, when they went 22-31 without him (a 34 win pace) and 16-13 with him (a 45 win pace - which was right in line with what they did the previous season). 

So Horford should get us to 50+.    Adding Durant could get us to 65+.  Dude is a superstar.  Our supporting cast is perfect for him.  People shouldnt' forget that LeBron once won 66 games with Mo Williams as his team's second best player.  When LeBron left they were a 20 win team.   Adding a guy like LeBron or Durant isn't a 5 win improvement... it's a 20 win improvement.   Let's also not forget that the Horford's Hawks won 60 games a season ago.   Saying Durant + Horford will take us from 48 to 58 wins is really really underestimating the impact that Horford + Durant can have on this group.

[LGC88]

I'm impressed. First time I see an ESPN article being good.
Pelton lay out the fact and make good analysis and conclusion (don't care about wins prediction, it's too relative).
This is a breath of fresh air compare to the usual (Boston has no talent, so they are not getting Durand).
Glad to see that some people do open their eyes.