What "Tier" players will we be selecting 4-6?

[Celtics18]

I've never liked the Tiers. Always seems like people just take a mock draft and draw arbitrary lines.

I actually think NBA scouting is severely underrated.

Yeah, there are guys who overachieve and underachieve... but more often than not when they draw that line and say, "This guy is a can't-miss star", he does.   Karl Towns isn't disappointing.  Anthony Davis doesn't disappoint.  Prior to that only a couple guys really got that designation like Yao Ming, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Greg Oden.    Oden was a disaster for sure.   But usually the guys they peg as the "next big thing" actually make a major impact in the league.

The 2014 draft there reportedly were three guys in the Tier 1:   Wiggins, Parker and Embiid.   I still haven't ruled out Embiid.   Parker and Wiggins are coming on strong right now.   

Since the all-star break. 
Parker:  19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals 51%/35%/80%
Wiggins:  20.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals 48%/42%/79%

Not bad for a couple 21 year olds.

When a guy gets placed into Tier 1, it usually isn't arbitrary.  It'll be interesting to see if either Simmons or Ingram even get that designation.

Does Ford's tier system go back further than 2011? 

the ones you listed have turned out to be way off.  I'd like to see if he has a better track record going further back.

[jdz101]

Perhaps an idea to wait and see if we are actually picking 4-6 before finding out what sort of player we might get.

Past few drafts the team at 3rd or 4th in the lottery hasnt picked 4-6 the majority of the time.

[Ilikesports17]

I've never liked the Tiers. Always seems like people just take a mock draft and draw arbitrary lines.

I actually think NBA scouting is severely underrated.

Yeah, there are guys who overachieve and underachieve... but more often than not when they draw that line and say, "This guy is a can't-miss star", he does.   Karl Towns isn't disappointing.  Anthony Davis doesn't disappoint.  Prior to that only a couple guys really got that designation like Yao Ming, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Greg Oden.    Oden was a disaster for sure.   But usually the guys they peg as the "next big thing" actually make a major impact in the league.

The 2014 draft there reportedly were three guys in the Tier 1:   Wiggins, Parker and Embiid.   I still haven't ruled out Embiid.   Parker and Wiggins are coming on strong right now.   

Since the all-star break. 
Parker:  19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals 51%/35%/80%
Wiggins:  20.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals 48%/42%/79%

Not bad for a couple 21 year olds.

When a guy gets placed into Tier 1, it usually isn't arbitrary.  It'll be interesting to see if either Simmons or Ingram even get that designation.

No its not bad for a couple 21 year olds. Both project to be very very good, but post-all star break stats for terrible teams (though to be fair Milwaukee has been closer to mediocre than terrible) should always be taken with a huge grain of salt.

With Ingram and Simmons you seem to have two players with terrific skillsets and terrific bodies. My question is: is either explosive enough to reach superstar level, or explosive enough to become all stars without seeing too much growth in the rest of their game.

From watching them, I have not gotten that feeling that they can physically dominate at an NBA level, but I have not watched enough to really say anything with confidence.

[JBcat]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

Here's how Ford describes the tiers:

Tier1:  This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players.

Tier 2:  This category is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. 

Tier 3:  This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers

Tier 4:  Project as starters or rotation players.

Tier 5:  Rotation players.


I see some people here putting Brandon Ingram in Tier 1.   Really?  I haven't really heard that kid is a surefire all-star.   Isn't he Tier 2 at best?   Is Simmons even in Tier 1?  I thought there were major questions about him.  Sounds like both of those guys might be Tier 2.

Thank you I had forgotten how ford breaks down his tiers, I always just look at them as groupings of equal prospect levels. Meaning if a team if drafting in say tier 4 and needs a guard they go with Murray a big man Poeltl

Me too. Thanks for posting that.

Okay, then there are a few tier 3 guys available in that 4-6 range.

I'll go with K.Dunn and Poeltl. Probably Jaylen Brown and Bender.

Hield as a maybe although I feel more comfortable with him in tier 4 alongside Skal and J.Murray. Fair argument that J.Brown should go there as well.

I would agree with Ingram and B.Simmons as tier 2. No tier 1.

This is why I wouldn't be opposed to trading down a bit from say 4 to the 8th-10th spot, and in return get a lottery pick next year where hopefully the draft is stronger.  Especially since it's guard heavy at the 4th-6th spots where we are strong there.  That's if we don't trade it for a star, and we don't land in the first 2 or 3 spots.

[Tr1boy]

I'm a bit more excited about the mavs , our picks and 2 early 2nds than 4-6 pick


I think this draft will produce gems in the middle/late part of the draft . could turn out to be like a 2013 draft year again


Not sold on poeltl.  I mean you take poeltl at 6 and Brice Johnson at 14. Who will end up being better ?

Murray at 6 or Valentine at 17? Who will be better

[slamtheking]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

Here's how Ford describes the tiers:

Tier1:  This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players.

Tier 2:  This category is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. 

Tier 3:  This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers

Tier 4:  Project as starters or rotation players.

Tier 5:  Rotation players.


I see some people here putting Brandon Ingram in Tier 1.   Really?  I haven't really heard that kid is a surefire all-star.   Isn't he Tier 2 at best?   Is Simmons even in Tier 1?  I thought there were major questions about him.  Sounds like both of those guys might be Tier 2.

Thank you I had forgotten how ford breaks down his tiers, I always just look at them as groupings of equal prospect levels. Meaning if a team if drafting in say tier 4 and needs a guard they go with Murray a big man Poeltl

Me too. Thanks for posting that.

Okay, then there are a few tier 3 guys available in that 4-6 range.

I'll go with K.Dunn and Poeltl. Probably Jaylen Brown and Bender.

Hield as a maybe although I feel more comfortable with him in tier 4 alongside Skal and J.Murray. Fair argument that J.Brown should go there as well.

I would agree with Ingram and B.Simmons as tier 2. No tier 1.

This is why I wouldn't be opposed to trading down a bit from say 4 to the 8th-10th spot, and in return get a lottery pick next year where hopefully the draft is stronger.  Especially since it's guard heavy at the 4th-6th spots where we are strong there.  That's if we don't trade it for a star, and we don't land in the first 2 or 3 spots.

I wouldn't be opposed to trading down a few slots if the player Danny wants figures to be available if it gets us another first rounder in the future but you can almost bet that the pick will be protected so that it only conveys if outside the lottery (or top 7 or 10) for a few years before becoming unprotected or converting to a couple of second rounders.  This draft isn't deep enough for any team to justify giving up a future unprotected pick to move up (unless we have a top 2 pick but then, why would we trade down?)

[RLewis35]

Re: Ingram let's also remember he reclassified to graduate a year earlier from HS than he was scheduled to.  He's still only 18 and won't turn 19 until September. While 6-7 months probably doesn't seem like that much of a difference (how many months older Parker and Wiggins were when they played in college), for a guy who's rail thin and still growing it could.  Ingram got a lot better towards end of season and I wouldn't discount his young age for his class being part of that.

Simmons is 14 months older (turns 20 in July), Kris Dunn is 22 already, and Jamal Murray is 7 mos older (already 19).

I honestly think you have to put Ingram in same tier as Simmons and yes age is part of it...

[PhoSita]

  Is Simmons even in Tier 1?  I thought there were major questions about him.  Sounds like both of those guys might be Tier 2.

I look at what Giannis is doing right now and I'm pretty confident, if Simmons ends up in a decent situation, he'll put up All-Star numbers within a few years.


I'm also pretty confident that Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl will be starters for at least a significant part of their careers.

[Tr1boy]

No tier 1 player in this one folks

Simmons, Ingram, Wiggins, Irving , Drummond = tier 2

Towns, Davis, Lebron, dwade, George, Leonard = Tier 1