These are the qualities I look for in projecting how players will do going from college ball to the NBA. So as you watch college players try to keep these ideas in mind along with the ideas others post and maybe run down some of your favorite college players and how they fit using ideas listed here. Maybe we can project the stars coming out of this draft. I've watched almost no college basketball this year so I have no idea how players will stack up this year.
I'll just list these things in no particular order because their importance depends on position.
1.) defensive +/- 1 or more rule. This is, can you guard your position and + or - one another position. Let's use Evan Turner as an example of this. On any given point in a game Evan can be playing the 1, 2, or 3 position. He can also guard positions 1-3. So at any point he can guard up to 2 positions away from his. Can your 5 guard a 4? Can your 3 guard the other teams 4 or 2? Twenty years ago I wouldn't have thought this was a important as I see it now.
2.) rebounding +1 for your position. This is somewhat dependent on the team you play but generally I want my 1's to rebound like 2's, 2's like 3's, and so on and so on. Right now on the Celtics, you'd have to say Smart rebounds like a 3, Crowder rebounds like a 4, and Sully rebounds like a 5 even though he is usually a 4 playing slightly out of position. Evan Turner playing the 1 or 2 probably out rebounds those positions as a 3. Other than that, I can't think of another player on the C's who rebounds better than his position. I haven't looked up the stats, but the C's probably aren't a great rebounding team because you can't find many spots where they out rebound their position.
3.) speed and height of shot. I care less about how many shots you make in college than how quickly and from what position you are able to get your shot off. Slow releases in college just aren't going to work in the NBA. It is easier to get more consistent with your shot than to change your mechanics. I don't care if you are the best shooter ever in college it just won't work in the NBA if you can't get your shot off quickly. Seldom in NBA games do you get a wide open unchallenged jump shot. The shot needs a quick release, needs to come from above the head and preferably even or behind the head. Off center shooters to their shooting hand is also a huge plus. Jason Terry was the perfect example of a shooter who kept the ball high and off to his shooting hand. If he got you just a step to his left he could get his shot off. Marcus Smart is a good example of this. High release, pretty quick shot and off to his right. With that shot style and his wide body, he has a chance to really develop into a good scorer. An example on the other side for the C's is Kelly Olynyk. He shoots the ball from a decent height but out in front of himself, so he will never develop into a guy who can get his shot off whenever he wants. Much smaller guys can defend him, especially when he has no post game. To create space to get his shot he has to do that Dirk wrong leg fade shot which he will probably never hit a good enough % to make him a go to option.
4.) ball handling at your position -1 or more. The most underrated ability in basketball is ball handling because there aren't stats for it. Your 1 should be able to go wherever he wants on the basketball court, through traffic, and be able to beat double teams. 2's need to be able to bring the ball up the court under pressure, break opposing players down off the dribble and get the team into sets under pressure. 3s need to be able to drive and handle the ball in the open court and traffic, 4s drive for 2 dribbles and back down, 5s just dribble into their offensive moves whether it be a drop step, baby hook setup, whatever. Now, if you get a player whose ball handling is a position lower than his actual position, those are guys who can produce at the next level. If your 4 can be a reliable ball handler in the open court you have something. I'm thinking of someone like Brandon Bass who probably had an under 25% conversion rate on fast breaks with the ball in his hands. Then look at someone like Barkely who while not pretty dribbling, was easily effective enough to advance the ball and finish breaks.
5.) size at your position. Sometimes you just can't beat size. Not just any size though, the size at your position. I've never heard any talk about being undersized as a plus. Being tall obviously is part of it, but having a long wingspan is probably more important, as well as weight that doesn't prohibit foot speed. If you are the same speed as everyone else at your position, but 20 pounds heavier, I'd rate you well above your peers.
6.) ill combine the last two into one because they sort of go together in a weird way but this doesn't necessarily apply to 5s because of their unique offensive situation. Range and passing for your position. I'd put 4s and stretch 5s in one group and 3s, 2s, and 1s in another. 4s and stretch 5s have to be able to hit midrange shots or they will almost certainly be offensive limiters to your team. They also need to be able to pass to each other in high low and hit backdoor cutters. Meanwhile 3s to 1s have to be able to shoot the 3 at at least a 33% clip and be good to great at passing to all positions. Turner obviously bucks this trend in shooting, as do great power 5s down low but generally if you can't shoot your position, you at least have to be able to pass to those who can, which Turner can do.
Anyway, if anyone has any "rules" they'd like to add, or player critiques using these, post them up.
Topic: What I look for in college players in the draft. (Read 1818 times)