Why Would Orlando Let Tobias Harris Walk?

[PhoSita]

Even if Tobias Harris is signed for the maximum amount and years he can sign, that will still be a movable deal.  Teams will be lining up to trade some kind of value for a 22 year old 6'8'' wing who can score and rebound.

So why exactly would Orlando let him walk, regardless of what another team is willing to pay him?  Even if he's not in the long term plans, why not just match and then auction him off later?

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

They probably will match Pho but there could be legit reasons they wouldn't.

Need the money for someone else.

Tested his market and knows they can't sell him at the price. I know you say a team would pay him but they wouldn't just be paying him they would be paying assets to Orl, that's more than paying him as a FA.

Doesn't fit the system.

Bad chemistry.

Coach doesn't like him.

Think they can get his production cheaper.



A lot of things can go into these decisions. I would match but teams have often done things I wouldn't.

[saltlover]

Scott Skiles.  They really clashed in Milwaukee (that's how Orlando got him to begin with), and now Skiles has the job in Orlando.

[CelticSooner]

Not sure they would just let him walk. Probably more of a S/T candidate to get at worst some second rounders out it.

[MBunge]

Besides the Skiles thing...

Orlando sucks.  They won 25 games last year and didn't have some rash of injuries to excuse it.  Giving Harris the money he wants would put them at like 52 or 53 million in salary.  Sign the draft picks and they're pushing toward 60 mil and will have not a lot of room under the cap to add anyone else.

There's a difference between Detroit or Boston giving Harris big money to get better and Orlando giving to him to stay the same.  You could argue that Orlando should keep Harris and ride out another bad season, then take advantage of the skyrocketing cap after that but not everyone can be Hinkie.

Mike

[PhoSita]

I'm a little skeptical Orlando would have hired Skiles if they thought doing so precluded them from keeping Harris, but maybe they would.

Again, though, unless Orlando has salary cap issues I'm not aware of, or has designs on major free agents (seems unlikely), I don't see the rationale for not matching on Harris, even if he's not in their plans.

Sign him and then trade him later this summer, if you have to.  Unless you think it'll be difficult to trade him once he's signed to a large deal, it doesn't make sense to just let an asset walk for nothing. 

Perhaps I'm overestimating what Harris's trade market would be like if he were signed to a 4 yr / 50 million dollar deal.


If signing him puts them well over the cap, then perhaps it starts to make sense.  Because even if you trade him, you need to take back salary.  This is where the decision to sign Willie Green, Ben Gordon, and Channing Frye last summer starts to seem very silly.

[Who]

Skiles and T.Harris have kept in touch all these years. They are on good terms. They text and talk to each other on the phone.

Tobias Harris dropped out of rotation because other veteran players were offering the team more of what they needed at the time (either defense - Mbah a Moute, Marquis Daniels, or, floor spacing - Mike Dunleavy). Skiles is also the guy who championed Milwaukee into drafting Harris, gave him minutes as a rookie and used Harris as a starter early in his 2nd season until he saw the lineups were unbalanced and needed to be changed.

There is no personality clash or hard feelings here. They did not have a falling out.

Milwaukee traded Tobias Harris a month and a half after Skiles was fired. Not sure they even make that trade (for a 3 month rental) if Skiles was still there because Skiles rated him highly.

[Who]

Stupidity is the only reason I can think of. Hope Orlando does some stupid and lets him walk.

There is no good reason to let Harris leave at this point. Not unless it is in a sign and trade and they are getting back something valuable. Best to keep him and wait for awhile. See how Harris and others develop (or not) and then decide who to trade (maybe Harris, maybe not).

I don't think any of the 3 restricted free agent wings - Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton or Tobias Harris - will be leaving their teams this summer. I think all 3 teams match max offer sheets. That is the reason why I like Greg Monroe. He is unrestricted.

This big cap increase is a bummer. Makes it impossible to overpay these guys to the point that their teams will not match. Under the new cap, even the max is a sensible financial offer for these players. Can't overpay! Makes life impossible for teams like the Celtics to steal away young proven restricted free agent talent.

[Csfan1984]

They don't feel he is a max player and don't want to waste those kind of $ on a guy who is just a 3rd option in the offense.

[317]

maybe they project Hezonja as a SF? it would be a lot of money to pay Harris to come off the bench.

[BitterJim]

I'm a little skeptical Orlando would have hired Skiles if they thought doing so precluded them from keeping Harris, but maybe they would.

Again, though, unless Orlando has salary cap issues I'm not aware of, or has designs on major free agents (seems unlikely), I don't see the rationale for not matching on Harris, even if he's not in their plans.

Sign him and then trade him later this summer, if you have to.  Unless you think it'll be difficult to trade him once he's signed to a large deal, it doesn't make sense to just let an asset walk for nothing. 

Perhaps I'm overestimating what Harris's trade market would be like if he were signed to a 4 yr / 50 million dollar deal.


If signing him puts them well over the cap, then perhaps it starts to make sense.  Because even if you trade him, you need to take back salary.  This is where the decision to sign Willie Green, Ben Gordon, and Channing Frye last summer starts to seem very silly.

They wouldn't be able to trade him until Dec or Jan (per the CBA)

[Irish Stew]

I think that Harris will be more like $15 million per year just because that's the way the market is headed given the impending cap expansion. Can Orlando take the chance that they will be stuck with him if no deal can be worked out? They have less than $40 million in guaranteed contracts right now, but that would limit their ability to sign a max guy. http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/238420/Tobias-Harris-To-Pursue-Near-Max-Deal-With-Pistons-Celtics-Among-Leading-Suitors

[saltlover]

I'm a little skeptical Orlando would have hired Skiles if they thought doing so precluded them from keeping Harris, but maybe they would.

Again, though, unless Orlando has salary cap issues I'm not aware of, or has designs on major free agents (seems unlikely), I don't see the rationale for not matching on Harris, even if he's not in their plans.

Sign him and then trade him later this summer, if you have to.  Unless you think it'll be difficult to trade him once he's signed to a large deal, it doesn't make sense to just let an asset walk for nothing. 

Perhaps I'm overestimating what Harris's trade market would be like if he were signed to a 4 yr / 50 million dollar deal.


If signing him puts them well over the cap, then perhaps it starts to make sense.  Because even if you trade him, you need to take back salary.  This is where the decision to sign Willie Green, Ben Gordon, and Channing Frye last summer starts to seem very silly.

They wouldn't be able to trade him until Dec or Jan (per the CBA)

Correct (for January).  And if they were to match an offer in restricted free agency, they couldn't trade him for a full year.

[ThaPreacher]

But is Tobias Harris a max-deal player?  I don't know...
I think he would be a good fit in Boston but why not at something more reasonable?  Is Boston so desperate to tie up that kind of cap space.  I think that Orlando is thinking the same thing.
They will probably attempt to sign him for something more reasonable or match offers up to a specific number. I don't know that they will actually let him walk and get nothing in return.