I always think the most interesting pieces released before the draft are rankings that place prospects in tiers as I think it is far more realistic than straight Big Board style lists. With that in mind I am going to throw out my current tiered first round for debate or so others could add their own. Note- my board is Celtics-specific so it takes into account our current roster/style.
Tier 1:
1)Karl-Anthony Towns
Notes: The only prospect in my mind without any real holes to his game and with great size, so I would put him in tier 1 alone.
Tier 2:
2) Justise Winslow
3) De'Angelo Russell
4) Jahlil Okafor
5) Mario Hezonja
6) Willie Cauley-Stein
7) Stanley Johnson
Emmanuel Mudiay
Notes: I see a big tier 2 in this draft after Towns. I think all of these prospects have potential to be all-stars in the league (if they develop strengths and address weakness), but I think all of them have at least one issue that could hold them back from ever being an all-star (issues in order - shot creation, elite athleticism, defense, limited minutes sample, offense, ceiling, outside shot).
Tier 3:
9) Kristaps Porzingis
10) Devon Booker
11) Myles Turner
12) Sam Dekker
Notes: These 4 prospects I view as all having some upside to turn into all-star performers; however, I think after the first two tiers, from here on out every prospect has bust potential. What I mean is that I think the tier 2 prospects will still turn into quality rotation pieces even if they do not "work out" and maximize their potential. These 4 prospects I think have some tantalizing skills, but I could also see scenarios where they just do not make it as NBA players.
Tier 4:
13) Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
14) Justin Anderson
15) Trey Lyles
16) Frank Kaminsky
17) Bobby Portis
18) Kelly Oubre
19) Cameron Payne
Notes: Outside of Oubre (who is a boom-bust prospect), I view this tier as guys who should all turn into solid rotation pieces in the NBA and have little bust potential. However, they also have little potential to turn into an all-star, which limits their ceiling. I tend to be a bit more conservative in terms of the draft process. I think if teams select good, solid players with every pick they avoid busts and put themselves in a position to have roster and trade flexibility. Jimmy Butler is a great example of the upside of this philosophy. Going into his draft the narrative was that he was an incredibly solid player with good athleticism and excellent work ethic, but that he had a low ceiling (and so he fell to the end of the first round). I would compare him to a Justin Anderson type from this draft. I am not saying Anderson will become Butler, but if you pick good players they still have the ability to develop and out-perform expectations.
Tier 5:
20) Kevon Looney
21) Montrezl Harrell
22) Jerian Grant
23) RJ Hunter
Notes: This is the last tier that I view as definite first round picks as I think they have a strong chance of at least becoming rotation players in the NBA. If we happen to keep 16 and 28, my hope would be that one of these top 23 slide to 28 on draft night. Otherwise, I view everything that is left as a lottery ticket basically. Not to say that some of those tickets won't work out, but I would simply trust Ainge's judgment after the first 23.
Tier 6:
24) Robert Upshaw
25) Pat Connaughton
26) Tyus Jones
27) Delon Wright
28) Christian Wood
29) Jordan Mickey
30) Chris Mcullough
31) Jarrell Martin
Notes: Again, I don't have any sense of conviction after that top 23, but here are some of the names that seem intriguing to me in that 28-33 range if nobody ends up sliding down the board.
Topic: Tiered Draft Boards (Read 1271 times)