You Pick.. Over/Under 35 Wins?(Revisited)

[celticsclay]

I'd be very surprised to see this team win 30 games this year.   35 would shock me.   This is a 15-25 win team most likely.

It's nice to have hope, though.  Give it 3-5 more years and we should be cracking 35 wins.

So, why were you so very wrong?

Mike

Since I got singled out, I'm happy to respond.  If you find some more posts from me at the time, my problems with the team were pretty clear.

#1 - We had tons of redundant pieces.   Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Turner, Thornton, Young all seemed like mediocre guards and I wasn't sure how having a bunch of them helped.  Bass, Olynyk and Sully were all mediocre power forwards.  We didn't have a true center.  At the beginning of the season, Stevens was playing guys willy nilly with sporadic line-ups and no consistency.  Players can't succeed in that environment.  THey need defined roles and clear paths towards minutes. 

#2 - Rondo was overrated and hurting the team.  This was proved in 2013 when Rondo was having his best statistical season ever, got hurt with the team below .500, and KG and Pierce somehow put the team on their backs and lead us to the playoffs.  The offensive improved without Rondo that year.  There were doubters, but then it happened again last year when the team was 6-26 in games that Rondo played.   Still were doubters, but once again we moved Rondo and predictably improved... meanwhile Dallas unquestionably has been worse since adding Rondo.  It was also clear that the team played "Stevens ball" with Rondo out and reverted to "Rondo-ball" with Rondo in.  THat was a problem that couldn't be fixed due to Rondo's offensive limitations.  Seeing the same issue in Dallas.

#3 - Jeff Green was mediocre.  Every advance stat proved that the guy didn't add much beyond sporadic scoring.  His role on the team was greater than it should have been.  I saw him and Evan Turner as redundant.

#4 - Size was a serious issue.  You can't play 6'1 Rondo and 6'2 Bradley at the same time.  You can't play Jared SUllinger or Kelly Olynyk at center.   This is just backwards basketball.

At the time, 30 wins would have been a stretch.

What changed:

Trading ROndo obviously helped.  Trading Jeff Green obviously helped.  Classic addition by subtraction.  We dumped a bunch of players and guys got injured.  Suddenly our roster had some clarity.  We have a 3-guard rotation that makes some sense.   Olynyk and Bass at PF makes sense.    Zeller's rise was a bit unforeseen.  He's a legitimate center.  Long-term he's probably a back-up, but on Boston he provides the most competent "legit center" we've had since 2010. 

Also, Marcus Smart has the size to offset Avery Bradley.   Bradley can guard the opposing team's PG while Smart (6'4 220) can cover the larger guard.  This, of course, is why you're unlikely to see IT start unless Bradley goes to the bench. 

So what you have is a functional basketball team with almost traditional roles.   Smart/Bradley makes some sense in the back-court.   Turner (who I always saw as redundant with jeff Green) is an effective SF who can take over ball-handling duties.   Arguably most importantly... having Zeller starting means we're no longer playing a PF out of position at center.

That, and I underrated how good Brad Stevens is.   We're sitting at 35 wins.   LarBrd33 from October is shocked.   But I was basing my comments on the team as it currently looked in October.  I wasn't factoring in the potential to have 40 different players on the Roster in 2014-15.   If predictions were contingent on "potential to add DeMarcus Cousins mid-season", I probably would have had a different opinion as well.  That team from OCtober would have won 25 games max.   

Also funny that most of the people in this thread picking the "over" did it, because they thought Rondo could rise the level of the players.  I obviously was in the other camp... I thought as long as he was here and Stevens was trying to run his system, we'd have problems.  It's not like anyone here predicted, "Over 35 as long as Zeller steps up his game, Sully gets hurt, and we trade Rondo and Jeff Green for future picks... they are holding us back". 

You got singled out because your prediction was such an outlier. 15 wins would have been a historically bad team in the history of the NBA.  The above explanation doesn't offer much justification as to why you thought the Cs would get so much worse than 2014's edition.

I am all for calling out people that use hyperbole and this is a prime example of that. The 76ers and Lakers are going to to end up with close to 20 wins. The Knicks are a team that will be at 15 and look at what they have had to do to get there.

Shut down Carmelo Anthony for half the season
Buy out Stoudamire half way through the season
Trade JR Smith and Iman shumpert for nobody that would play meaningful minutes
Shut down Jose Calderon for the year
Have Dalembert regress from servicable back up big to out of the league
Have a rookie coach that does not help win any games
Have Hardaway Jr. regress
Have no meaningful contribution from Larkin, Early or any other young player

That is what a team has to do to win 15 games. A 15 win estimation for the Celtics would have required something like

Bradley traded for nothing
Sully traded for nothing/injured all year
Zeller injured or traded for nothing
Smart contributing nothing as a rookie
KO regressing or not playing at all
Jeff Green being injured/traded for nothing/cut
Rondo traded or injured or traded for nothing meaningful
Evan Turner not playing average/being cut
etc etc
Plus CBS being a horrible coach

[LarBrd33]

I'd be very surprised to see this team win 30 games this year.   35 would shock me.   This is a 15-25 win team most likely.

It's nice to have hope, though.  Give it 3-5 more years and we should be cracking 35 wins.

So, why were you so very wrong?

Mike

Since I got singled out, I'm happy to respond.  If you find some more posts from me at the time, my problems with the team were pretty clear.

#1 - We had tons of redundant pieces.   Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Turner, Thornton, Young all seemed like mediocre guards and I wasn't sure how having a bunch of them helped.  Bass, Olynyk and Sully were all mediocre power forwards.  We didn't have a true center.  At the beginning of the season, Stevens was playing guys willy nilly with sporadic line-ups and no consistency.  Players can't succeed in that environment.  THey need defined roles and clear paths towards minutes. 

#2 - Rondo was overrated and hurting the team.  This was proved in 2013 when Rondo was having his best statistical season ever, got hurt with the team below .500, and KG and Pierce somehow put the team on their backs and lead us to the playoffs.  The offensive improved without Rondo that year.  There were doubters, but then it happened again last year when the team was 6-26 in games that Rondo played.   Still were doubters, but once again we moved Rondo and predictably improved... meanwhile Dallas unquestionably has been worse since adding Rondo.  It was also clear that the team played "Stevens ball" with Rondo out and reverted to "Rondo-ball" with Rondo in.  THat was a problem that couldn't be fixed due to Rondo's offensive limitations.  Seeing the same issue in Dallas.

#3 - Jeff Green was mediocre.  Every advance stat proved that the guy didn't add much beyond sporadic scoring.  His role on the team was greater than it should have been.  I saw him and Evan Turner as redundant.

#4 - Size was a serious issue.  You can't play 6'1 Rondo and 6'2 Bradley at the same time.  You can't play Jared SUllinger or Kelly Olynyk at center.   This is just backwards basketball.

At the time, 30 wins would have been a stretch.

What changed:

Trading ROndo obviously helped.  Trading Jeff Green obviously helped.  Classic addition by subtraction.  We dumped a bunch of players and guys got injured.  Suddenly our roster had some clarity.  We have a 3-guard rotation that makes some sense.   Olynyk and Bass at PF makes sense.    Zeller's rise was a bit unforeseen.  He's a legitimate center.  Long-term he's probably a back-up, but on Boston he provides the most competent "legit center" we've had since 2010. 

Also, Marcus Smart has the size to offset Avery Bradley.   Bradley can guard the opposing team's PG while Smart (6'4 220) can cover the larger guard.  This, of course, is why you're unlikely to see IT start unless Bradley goes to the bench. 

So what you have is a functional basketball team with almost traditional roles.   Smart/Bradley makes some sense in the back-court.   Turner (who I always saw as redundant with jeff Green) is an effective SF who can take over ball-handling duties.   Arguably most importantly... having Zeller starting means we're no longer playing a PF out of position at center.

That, and I underrated how good Brad Stevens is.   We're sitting at 35 wins.   LarBrd33 from October is shocked.   But I was basing my comments on the team as it currently looked in October.  I wasn't factoring in the potential to have 40 different players on the Roster in 2014-15.   If predictions were contingent on "potential to add DeMarcus Cousins mid-season", I probably would have had a different opinion as well.  That team from OCtober would have won 25 games max.   

Also funny that most of the people in this thread picking the "over" did it, because they thought Rondo could rise the level of the players.  I obviously was in the other camp... I thought as long as he was here and Stevens was trying to run his system, we'd have problems.  It's not like anyone here predicted, "Over 35 as long as Zeller steps up his game, Sully gets hurt, and we trade Rondo and Jeff Green for future picks... they are holding us back". 

You got singled out because your prediction was such an outlier. 15 wins would have been a historically bad team in the history of the NBA.  The above explanation doesn't offer much justification as to why you thought the Cs would get so much worse than 2014's edition.

We were 6-26 with Rondo last season.   Project that over 82 games you have 15 wins.   I figured that was the worst-case scenario.   The team performed far better last season in games Rondo didn't play.  I figured if he was getting a full healthy season, we probably weren't cracking 30 wins.   15-25 was a reasonable range.   

Luckily, we dumped him, cleaned up the roster via trade, found a competent center... and went on a run.   

Fair to note that we were actually 8-14 in games Rondo played for us this year and he was having arguably the best per-minute production of his career.  That projects to 29.8 wins.  So it looks like they were on pace to surpass my expectations regardless.  Still would have been surprised to see them win 30.  35 would have shocked me.

Also, I'm not sure "Try to make the playoffs with a below .500 record" was really in the gameplan heading into the season.  Every move we made seemed made with the transparent hope of bottoming out for a Top 5 pick.  It's been a weird season.  A lot of folks are still surprised we're trying to "go for it".  I think Ainge probably hoped we'd be down there with the Knicks/Philly, but the trades had an "adverse effect" of improving the team and solving some of our issues.  Immediately following the Jeff Green trade, all you read about was how the team hoped to give a bunch of minutes to James Young.  The organization has kind of improvised and changed gears as they saw a way to make the most of a playoff opportunity (Young to the D-league, big minutes for Bass, trade for a bench scorer, target McGee, etc).     

[celticsclay]

I'd be very surprised to see this team win 30 games this year.   35 would shock me.   This is a 15-25 win team most likely.

It's nice to have hope, though.  Give it 3-5 more years and we should be cracking 35 wins.

So, why were you so very wrong?

Mike

Since I got singled out, I'm happy to respond.  If you find some more posts from me at the time, my problems with the team were pretty clear.

#1 - We had tons of redundant pieces.   Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Turner, Thornton, Young all seemed like mediocre guards and I wasn't sure how having a bunch of them helped.  Bass, Olynyk and Sully were all mediocre power forwards.  We didn't have a true center.  At the beginning of the season, Stevens was playing guys willy nilly with sporadic line-ups and no consistency.  Players can't succeed in that environment.  THey need defined roles and clear paths towards minutes. 

#2 - Rondo was overrated and hurting the team.  This was proved in 2013 when Rondo was having his best statistical season ever, got hurt with the team below .500, and KG and Pierce somehow put the team on their backs and lead us to the playoffs.  The offensive improved without Rondo that year.  There were doubters, but then it happened again last year when the team was 6-26 in games that Rondo played.   Still were doubters, but once again we moved Rondo and predictably improved... meanwhile Dallas unquestionably has been worse since adding Rondo.  It was also clear that the team played "Stevens ball" with Rondo out and reverted to "Rondo-ball" with Rondo in.  THat was a problem that couldn't be fixed due to Rondo's offensive limitations.  Seeing the same issue in Dallas.

#3 - Jeff Green was mediocre.  Every advance stat proved that the guy didn't add much beyond sporadic scoring.  His role on the team was greater than it should have been.  I saw him and Evan Turner as redundant.

#4 - Size was a serious issue.  You can't play 6'1 Rondo and 6'2 Bradley at the same time.  You can't play Jared SUllinger or Kelly Olynyk at center.   This is just backwards basketball.

At the time, 30 wins would have been a stretch.

What changed:

Trading ROndo obviously helped.  Trading Jeff Green obviously helped.  Classic addition by subtraction.  We dumped a bunch of players and guys got injured.  Suddenly our roster had some clarity.  We have a 3-guard rotation that makes some sense.   Olynyk and Bass at PF makes sense.    Zeller's rise was a bit unforeseen.  He's a legitimate center.  Long-term he's probably a back-up, but on Boston he provides the most competent "legit center" we've had since 2010. 

Also, Marcus Smart has the size to offset Avery Bradley.   Bradley can guard the opposing team's PG while Smart (6'4 220) can cover the larger guard.  This, of course, is why you're unlikely to see IT start unless Bradley goes to the bench. 

So what you have is a functional basketball team with almost traditional roles.   Smart/Bradley makes some sense in the back-court.   Turner (who I always saw as redundant with jeff Green) is an effective SF who can take over ball-handling duties.   Arguably most importantly... having Zeller starting means we're no longer playing a PF out of position at center.

That, and I underrated how good Brad Stevens is.   We're sitting at 35 wins.   LarBrd33 from October is shocked.   But I was basing my comments on the team as it currently looked in October.  I wasn't factoring in the potential to have 40 different players on the Roster in 2014-15.   If predictions were contingent on "potential to add DeMarcus Cousins mid-season", I probably would have had a different opinion as well.  That team from OCtober would have won 25 games max.   

Also funny that most of the people in this thread picking the "over" did it, because they thought Rondo could rise the level of the players.  I obviously was in the other camp... I thought as long as he was here and Stevens was trying to run his system, we'd have problems.  It's not like anyone here predicted, "Over 35 as long as Zeller steps up his game, Sully gets hurt, and we trade Rondo and Jeff Green for future picks... they are holding us back". 

You got singled out because your prediction was such an outlier. 15 wins would have been a historically bad team in the history of the NBA.  The above explanation doesn't offer much justification as to why you thought the Cs would get so much worse than 2014's edition.

We were 6-26 with Rondo last season.   Project that over 82 games you have 15 wins.   I figured that was the worst-case scenario.   The team performed far better last season in games Rondo didn't play.  I figured if he was getting a full healthy season, we probably weren't cracking 30 wins.   15-25 was a reasonable range.   

Luckily, we dumped him, cleaned up the roster via trade, found a competent center... and went on a run.   

Fair to note that we were actually 8-14 in games Rondo played for us this year and he was having arguably the best per-minute production of his career.  That projects to 29.8 wins.  So it looks like they were on pace to surpass my expectations regardless.  Still would have been surprised to see them win 30.  35 would have shocked me.

Also, I'm not sure "Try to make the playoffs with a below .500 record" was really in the gameplan heading into the season.  Every move we made seemed made with the transparent hope of bottoming out for a Top 5 pick.  It's been a weird season.  A lot of folks are still surprised we're trying to "go for it".  I think Ainge probably hoped we'd be down there with the Knicks/Philly, but the trades had an "adverse effect" of improving the team and solving some of our issues.  Immediately following the Jeff Green trade, all you read about was how the team hoped to give a bunch of minutes to James Young.  The organization has kind of improvised and changed gears as they saw a way to make the most of a playoff opportunity (Young to the D-league, big minutes for Bass, trade for a bench scorer, target McGee, etc).   

You could just admit you were trying to be lnflammatory and incite reaction as you are known for. Obviously 15, even as a worst case scenario wasn't a reasonable conclusion based on the talent on the roster and having a coach the front office believes is competent (as opposed to ML Carr). 

[Chris22]

I predicted over 35 wins.

I win the internet!

[D.o.s.]

under.

Happily incorrect.

[LarBrd33]

I'd be very surprised to see this team win 30 games this year.   35 would shock me.   This is a 15-25 win team most likely.

It's nice to have hope, though.  Give it 3-5 more years and we should be cracking 35 wins.

So, why were you so very wrong?

Mike

Since I got singled out, I'm happy to respond.  If you find some more posts from me at the time, my problems with the team were pretty clear.

#1 - We had tons of redundant pieces.   Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Turner, Thornton, Young all seemed like mediocre guards and I wasn't sure how having a bunch of them helped.  Bass, Olynyk and Sully were all mediocre power forwards.  We didn't have a true center.  At the beginning of the season, Stevens was playing guys willy nilly with sporadic line-ups and no consistency.  Players can't succeed in that environment.  THey need defined roles and clear paths towards minutes. 

#2 - Rondo was overrated and hurting the team.  This was proved in 2013 when Rondo was having his best statistical season ever, got hurt with the team below .500, and KG and Pierce somehow put the team on their backs and lead us to the playoffs.  The offensive improved without Rondo that year.  There were doubters, but then it happened again last year when the team was 6-26 in games that Rondo played.   Still were doubters, but once again we moved Rondo and predictably improved... meanwhile Dallas unquestionably has been worse since adding Rondo.  It was also clear that the team played "Stevens ball" with Rondo out and reverted to "Rondo-ball" with Rondo in.  THat was a problem that couldn't be fixed due to Rondo's offensive limitations.  Seeing the same issue in Dallas.

#3 - Jeff Green was mediocre.  Every advance stat proved that the guy didn't add much beyond sporadic scoring.  His role on the team was greater than it should have been.  I saw him and Evan Turner as redundant.

#4 - Size was a serious issue.  You can't play 6'1 Rondo and 6'2 Bradley at the same time.  You can't play Jared SUllinger or Kelly Olynyk at center.   This is just backwards basketball.

At the time, 30 wins would have been a stretch.

What changed:

Trading ROndo obviously helped.  Trading Jeff Green obviously helped.  Classic addition by subtraction.  We dumped a bunch of players and guys got injured.  Suddenly our roster had some clarity.  We have a 3-guard rotation that makes some sense.   Olynyk and Bass at PF makes sense.    Zeller's rise was a bit unforeseen.  He's a legitimate center.  Long-term he's probably a back-up, but on Boston he provides the most competent "legit center" we've had since 2010. 

Also, Marcus Smart has the size to offset Avery Bradley.   Bradley can guard the opposing team's PG while Smart (6'4 220) can cover the larger guard.  This, of course, is why you're unlikely to see IT start unless Bradley goes to the bench. 

So what you have is a functional basketball team with almost traditional roles.   Smart/Bradley makes some sense in the back-court.   Turner (who I always saw as redundant with jeff Green) is an effective SF who can take over ball-handling duties.   Arguably most importantly... having Zeller starting means we're no longer playing a PF out of position at center.

That, and I underrated how good Brad Stevens is.   We're sitting at 35 wins.   LarBrd33 from October is shocked.   But I was basing my comments on the team as it currently looked in October.  I wasn't factoring in the potential to have 40 different players on the Roster in 2014-15.   If predictions were contingent on "potential to add DeMarcus Cousins mid-season", I probably would have had a different opinion as well.  That team from OCtober would have won 25 games max.   

Also funny that most of the people in this thread picking the "over" did it, because they thought Rondo could rise the level of the players.  I obviously was in the other camp... I thought as long as he was here and Stevens was trying to run his system, we'd have problems.  It's not like anyone here predicted, "Over 35 as long as Zeller steps up his game, Sully gets hurt, and we trade Rondo and Jeff Green for future picks... they are holding us back". 

You got singled out because your prediction was such an outlier. 15 wins would have been a historically bad team in the history of the NBA.  The above explanation doesn't offer much justification as to why you thought the Cs would get so much worse than 2014's edition.

We were 6-26 with Rondo last season.   Project that over 82 games you have 15 wins.   I figured that was the worst-case scenario.   The team performed far better last season in games Rondo didn't play.  I figured if he was getting a full healthy season, we probably weren't cracking 30 wins.   15-25 was a reasonable range.   

Luckily, we dumped him, cleaned up the roster via trade, found a competent center... and went on a run.   

Fair to note that we were actually 8-14 in games Rondo played for us this year and he was having arguably the best per-minute production of his career.  That projects to 29.8 wins.  So it looks like they were on pace to surpass my expectations regardless.  Still would have been surprised to see them win 30.  35 would have shocked me.

Also, I'm not sure "Try to make the playoffs with a below .500 record" was really in the gameplan heading into the season.  Every move we made seemed made with the transparent hope of bottoming out for a Top 5 pick.  It's been a weird season.  A lot of folks are still surprised we're trying to "go for it".  I think Ainge probably hoped we'd be down there with the Knicks/Philly, but the trades had an "adverse effect" of improving the team and solving some of our issues.  Immediately following the Jeff Green trade, all you read about was how the team hoped to give a bunch of minutes to James Young.  The organization has kind of improvised and changed gears as they saw a way to make the most of a playoff opportunity (Young to the D-league, big minutes for Bass, trade for a bench scorer, target McGee, etc).   

You could just admit you were trying to be lnflammatory and incite reaction as you are known for. Obviously 15, even as a worst case scenario wasn't a reasonable conclusion based on the talent on the roster and having a coach the front office believes is competent (as opposed to ML Carr).

TP Clay.  I'm an admitted pessimist.  I'm always going to be a glass-half-empty kind of guy.  I try to keep my expectations down and anticipate the worst.  It's how I cope.  Lol.   

It's not like I'm disappointed we had a surprisingly good season.  I'm a Celtic fan.    It's just a shame that we're going to lose the next 5 games, land a bust in the draft, strike out in free agency, and win 9 games next season after Stevens returns to coach College ball. 

[Evantime34]

I believe I predicted 34 wins in another thread. However had I know before the season that we would trade Rondo and Green I would have said closer to 25.

It is amazing what Stevens has done with this team, while Ainge collected future draft picks.

[Csfan1984]

I'd be very surprised to see this team win 30 games this year.   35 would shock me.   This is a 15-25 win team most likely.

It's nice to have hope, though.  Give it 3-5 more years and we should be cracking 35 wins.

So, why were you so very wrong?

Mike

Since I got singled out, I'm happy to respond.  If you find some more posts from me at the time, my problems with the team were pretty clear.

#1 - We had tons of redundant pieces.   Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Turner, Thornton, Young all seemed like mediocre guards and I wasn't sure how having a bunch of them helped.  Bass, Olynyk and Sully were all mediocre power forwards.  We didn't have a true center.  At the beginning of the season, Stevens was playing guys willy nilly with sporadic line-ups and no consistency.  Players can't succeed in that environment.  THey need defined roles and clear paths towards minutes. 

#2 - Rondo was overrated and hurting the team.  This was proved in 2013 when Rondo was having his best statistical season ever, got hurt with the team below .500, and KG and Pierce somehow put the team on their backs and lead us to the playoffs.  The offensive improved without Rondo that year.  There were doubters, but then it happened again last year when the team was 6-26 in games that Rondo played.   Still were doubters, but once again we moved Rondo and predictably improved... meanwhile Dallas unquestionably has been worse since adding Rondo.  It was also clear that the team played "Stevens ball" with Rondo out and reverted to "Rondo-ball" with Rondo in.  THat was a problem that couldn't be fixed due to Rondo's offensive limitations.  Seeing the same issue in Dallas.

#3 - Jeff Green was mediocre.  Every advance stat proved that the guy didn't add much beyond sporadic scoring.  His role on the team was greater than it should have been.  I saw him and Evan Turner as redundant.

#4 - Size was a serious issue.  You can't play 6'1 Rondo and 6'2 Bradley at the same time.  You can't play Jared SUllinger or Kelly Olynyk at center.   This is just backwards basketball.

At the time, 30 wins would have been a stretch.

What changed:

Trading ROndo obviously helped.  Trading Jeff Green obviously helped.  Classic addition by subtraction.  We dumped a bunch of players and guys got injured.  Suddenly our roster had some clarity.  We have a 3-guard rotation that makes some sense.   Olynyk and Bass at PF makes sense.    Zeller's rise was a bit unforeseen.  He's a legitimate center.  Long-term he's probably a back-up, but on Boston he provides the most competent "legit center" we've had since 2010. 

Also, Marcus Smart has the size to offset Avery Bradley.   Bradley can guard the opposing team's PG while Smart (6'4 220) can cover the larger guard.  This, of course, is why you're unlikely to see IT start unless Bradley goes to the bench. 

So what you have is a functional basketball team with almost traditional roles.   Smart/Bradley makes some sense in the back-court.   Turner (who I always saw as redundant with jeff Green) is an effective SF who can take over ball-handling duties.   Arguably most importantly... having Zeller starting means we're no longer playing a PF out of position at center.

That, and I underrated how good Brad Stevens is.   We're sitting at 35 wins.   LarBrd33 from October is shocked.   But I was basing my comments on the team as it currently looked in October.  I wasn't factoring in the potential to have 40 different players on the Roster in 2014-15.   If predictions were contingent on "potential to add DeMarcus Cousins mid-season", I probably would have had a different opinion as well.  That team from OCtober would have won 25 games max.   

Also funny that most of the people in this thread picking the "over" did it, because they thought Rondo could rise the level of the players.  I obviously was in the other camp... I thought as long as he was here and Stevens was trying to run his system, we'd have problems.  It's not like anyone here predicted, "Over 35 as long as Zeller steps up his game, Sully gets hurt, and we trade Rondo and Jeff Green for future picks... they are holding us back". 

You got singled out because your prediction was such an outlier. 15 wins would have been a historically bad team in the history of the NBA.  The above explanation doesn't offer much justification as to why you thought the Cs would get so much worse than 2014's edition.

We were 6-26 with Rondo last season.   Project that over 82 games you have 15 wins.   I figured that was the worst-case scenario.   The team performed far better last season in games Rondo didn't play.  I figured if he was getting a full healthy season, we probably weren't cracking 30 wins.   15-25 was a reasonable range.   

Luckily, we dumped him, cleaned up the roster via trade, found a competent center... and went on a run.   

Fair to note that we were actually 8-14 in games Rondo played for us this year and he was having arguably the best per-minute production of his career.  That projects to 29.8 wins.  So it looks like they were on pace to surpass my expectations regardless.  Still would have been surprised to see them win 30.  35 would have shocked me.

Also, I'm not sure "Try to make the playoffs with a below .500 record" was really in the gameplan heading into the season.  Every move we made seemed made with the transparent hope of bottoming out for a Top 5 pick.  It's been a weird season.  A lot of folks are still surprised we're trying to "go for it".  I think Ainge probably hoped we'd be down there with the Knicks/Philly, but the trades had an "adverse effect" of improving the team and solving some of our issues.  Immediately following the Jeff Green trade, all you read about was how the team hoped to give a bunch of minutes to James Young.  The organization has kind of improvised and changed gears as they saw a way to make the most of a playoff opportunity (Young to the D-league, big minutes for Bass, trade for a bench scorer, target McGee, etc).   

You could just admit you were trying to be lnflammatory and incite reaction as you are known for. Obviously 15, even as a worst case scenario wasn't a reasonable conclusion based on the talent on the roster and having a coach the front office believes is competent (as opposed to ML Carr).

TP Clay.  I'm an admitted pessimist.  I'm always going to be a glass-half-empty kind of guy.  I try to keep my expectations down and anticipate the worst.  It's how I cope.  Lol.   

It's not like I'm disappointed we had a surprisingly good season.  I'm a Celtic fan.    It's just a shame that we're going to lose the next 5 games, land a bust in the draft, strike out in free agency, and win 9 games next season after Stevens returns to coach College ball. 

Man Clay, that was so wrong for being so right about lb33 lol.

Larbrd33, I would just like more negative on everyone from ya. Too often you seem, "it's greener on the other side of the fence". Just go all negative lol

[Celtics4ever]

More a testament to CBS than any who picked that high.   All the experts, stated they would not, experts are sometimes wrong though.

To those who got that high who is going to win the NCAAs tonight?   Let's see if the luck persists.

[Granath]

Under. I was right on the mark last year, so let's talk about this year.

I'm guessing between 28-33 wins. I see the youngsters taking a step forward but that not translating into wins. I see some players who will play lockdown individual defense but that won't translate to improving the team defense. I see a couple of vets getting traded (Bass and Green) and I see the daily "what's going to happen with Rondo" story wearing on the team.

I also see hope for the future.

I'm glad I was wrong on the wins.

Frankly, I'm very surprised and pleased to see this Celtics squad gutting out wins at a pretty good clip. And that's what they do - they gut out wins. Brad has this team working their tails off and they're seeing how that translates into success. They're fun to watch and they're easy to root for.

[celticsclay]

I'd be very surprised to see this team win 30 games this year.   35 would shock me.   This is a 15-25 win team most likely.

It's nice to have hope, though.  Give it 3-5 more years and we should be cracking 35 wins.

So, why were you so very wrong?

Mike

Since I got singled out, I'm happy to respond.  If you find some more posts from me at the time, my problems with the team were pretty clear.

#1 - We had tons of redundant pieces.   Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Turner, Thornton, Young all seemed like mediocre guards and I wasn't sure how having a bunch of them helped.  Bass, Olynyk and Sully were all mediocre power forwards.  We didn't have a true center.  At the beginning of the season, Stevens was playing guys willy nilly with sporadic line-ups and no consistency.  Players can't succeed in that environment.  THey need defined roles and clear paths towards minutes. 

#2 - Rondo was overrated and hurting the team.  This was proved in 2013 when Rondo was having his best statistical season ever, got hurt with the team below .500, and KG and Pierce somehow put the team on their backs and lead us to the playoffs.  The offensive improved without Rondo that year.  There were doubters, but then it happened again last year when the team was 6-26 in games that Rondo played.   Still were doubters, but once again we moved Rondo and predictably improved... meanwhile Dallas unquestionably has been worse since adding Rondo.  It was also clear that the team played "Stevens ball" with Rondo out and reverted to "Rondo-ball" with Rondo in.  THat was a problem that couldn't be fixed due to Rondo's offensive limitations.  Seeing the same issue in Dallas.

#3 - Jeff Green was mediocre.  Every advance stat proved that the guy didn't add much beyond sporadic scoring.  His role on the team was greater than it should have been.  I saw him and Evan Turner as redundant.

#4 - Size was a serious issue.  You can't play 6'1 Rondo and 6'2 Bradley at the same time.  You can't play Jared SUllinger or Kelly Olynyk at center.   This is just backwards basketball.

At the time, 30 wins would have been a stretch.

What changed:

Trading ROndo obviously helped.  Trading Jeff Green obviously helped.  Classic addition by subtraction.  We dumped a bunch of players and guys got injured.  Suddenly our roster had some clarity.  We have a 3-guard rotation that makes some sense.   Olynyk and Bass at PF makes sense.    Zeller's rise was a bit unforeseen.  He's a legitimate center.  Long-term he's probably a back-up, but on Boston he provides the most competent "legit center" we've had since 2010. 

Also, Marcus Smart has the size to offset Avery Bradley.   Bradley can guard the opposing team's PG while Smart (6'4 220) can cover the larger guard.  This, of course, is why you're unlikely to see IT start unless Bradley goes to the bench. 

So what you have is a functional basketball team with almost traditional roles.   Smart/Bradley makes some sense in the back-court.   Turner (who I always saw as redundant with jeff Green) is an effective SF who can take over ball-handling duties.   Arguably most importantly... having Zeller starting means we're no longer playing a PF out of position at center.

That, and I underrated how good Brad Stevens is.   We're sitting at 35 wins.   LarBrd33 from October is shocked.   But I was basing my comments on the team as it currently looked in October.  I wasn't factoring in the potential to have 40 different players on the Roster in 2014-15.   If predictions were contingent on "potential to add DeMarcus Cousins mid-season", I probably would have had a different opinion as well.  That team from OCtober would have won 25 games max.   

Also funny that most of the people in this thread picking the "over" did it, because they thought Rondo could rise the level of the players.  I obviously was in the other camp... I thought as long as he was here and Stevens was trying to run his system, we'd have problems.  It's not like anyone here predicted, "Over 35 as long as Zeller steps up his game, Sully gets hurt, and we trade Rondo and Jeff Green for future picks... they are holding us back". 

You got singled out because your prediction was such an outlier. 15 wins would have been a historically bad team in the history of the NBA.  The above explanation doesn't offer much justification as to why you thought the Cs would get so much worse than 2014's edition.

We were 6-26 with Rondo last season.   Project that over 82 games you have 15 wins.   I figured that was the worst-case scenario.   The team performed far better last season in games Rondo didn't play.  I figured if he was getting a full healthy season, we probably weren't cracking 30 wins.   15-25 was a reasonable range.   

Luckily, we dumped him, cleaned up the roster via trade, found a competent center... and went on a run.   

Fair to note that we were actually 8-14 in games Rondo played for us this year and he was having arguably the best per-minute production of his career.  That projects to 29.8 wins.  So it looks like they were on pace to surpass my expectations regardless.  Still would have been surprised to see them win 30.  35 would have shocked me.

Also, I'm not sure "Try to make the playoffs with a below .500 record" was really in the gameplan heading into the season.  Every move we made seemed made with the transparent hope of bottoming out for a Top 5 pick.  It's been a weird season.  A lot of folks are still surprised we're trying to "go for it".  I think Ainge probably hoped we'd be down there with the Knicks/Philly, but the trades had an "adverse effect" of improving the team and solving some of our issues.  Immediately following the Jeff Green trade, all you read about was how the team hoped to give a bunch of minutes to James Young.  The organization has kind of improvised and changed gears as they saw a way to make the most of a playoff opportunity (Young to the D-league, big minutes for Bass, trade for a bench scorer, target McGee, etc).   

You could just admit you were trying to be lnflammatory and incite reaction as you are known for. Obviously 15, even as a worst case scenario wasn't a reasonable conclusion based on the talent on the roster and having a coach the front office believes is competent (as opposed to ML Carr).

TP Clay.  I'm an admitted pessimist.  I'm always going to be a glass-half-empty kind of guy.  I try to keep my expectations down and anticipate the worst.  It's how I cope.  Lol.   

It's not like I'm disappointed we had a surprisingly good season.  I'm a Celtic fan.    It's just a shame that we're going to lose the next 5 games, land a bust in the draft, strike out in free agency, and win 9 games next season after Stevens returns to coach College ball. 

Man Clay, that was so wrong for being so right about lb33 lol.

Larbrd33, I would just like more negative on everyone from ya. Too often you seem, "it's greener on the other side of the fence". Just go all negative lol

larbrd, i would buy you a beer for that post. Well done and TP back

[SHAQATTACK]

I didn't try .

I did predict or feel the team would under go huge change in player personnel .

I was like ...without knowing who is going to be on the team ..I really had no idea about wins

The  team has more than exceeded my expectations if 35 is final tally.

Right now I feel like 37 wins is legit to finish out reg. season.  .....I wouldn't bet my life on it though ....LOL