Win-Win Games: Draft Pick Odds

[beantownboy171]

The best part of having these draft picks are all the win-win games that pop up as the season goes along. I've compiled a list of these games just to demonstrate why we have good reason to be optimistic for both the Nets and Mavs 1st rounders.

Inclusion criteria: For a team to be included the Celtics need to benefit in some way from them winning. Teams that are unlikely to reach the Mavericks or Nets in the standings were excluded (i.e. 76ers, Lakers, Nuggets, Bucks)

Teams Included: Boston, Phoenix, Minnesota, Portland, Utah, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Memphis, Washington

Note: Memphis is up on Dallas by a large margin. However, they've lost Conley, Gasol and Chalmers. It would be nice to see them win a few more, and they match-ups should be considered 'likely wins' for whoever they face.

Total Number of win-win games remaining: 25 (every game is listed twice)

Phoenix:
2 games vs. Minnesota
2 games vs. Jazz
1 game vs. Washington
1 game vs. Houston
1 game vs. Memphis

Minnesota:
2 games vs. Phoenix
2 games vs. Houston
2 games vs. Jazz
1 game vs. Memphis
1 game vs. Washington
1 game vs. Portland

Portland:
1 game vs. Boston
1 game vs. Minnesota

Utah:
2 games vs. Phoenix
2 games vs. Minnesota
1 game vs. Houston
1 game vs. Chicago

Boston:
1 game vs. Phoenix
1 game vs. Minnesota
1 game vs. Portland

Chicago:
1 game vs. Washington
1 game vs. Jazz
1 game vs. Houston
1 game vs. Detroit
1 game vs. Memphis

Detroit:
1 game vs. Chicago
2 games vs. Washington

Houston:
1 game vs. Memphis
1 game vs. Phoenix
2 games vs. Minnesota
1 game vs. Utah
1 game vs. Chicago

Memphis:
1 game vs. Houston
1 game vs. Minnesota
1 game vs. Phoenix
1 game vs. Chicago

Washington:
2 games vs. Detroit
1 game vs. Chicago
1 game vs. Minnesota
1 game vs. Phoenix

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The following match-ups are not considered Win-win games. But they are teams that typically lose and would likely be W's for the teams i've listed above (except Boston).

Total # of games: 15

76ers:
1 game vs. Detroit
1 game vs. Washington
1 game vs. Chicago
1 game vs. Portland

Lakers:
2 games vs. Phoenix
2 games vs. Utah
1 game vs. Memphis
1 game vs. Houston
1 game vs. Washington

Nets:
1 game vs. Chicago
1 game vs. Detroit
2 games vs. Washington

Also important: Dallas has 0 games against these 3 teams. Dallas will face Minnesota 1 more time this season

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This is demonstrate why we should be optimistic about our draft picks.

The Mavericks 1st could fall between 12- 18

The Nets 1st could fall between 3-5 (Pre-lottery, if you include lottery 1-8 is all still possible)

The games listed above will help determine where each pick falls.

[chilidawg]

538 goes through all this for you with a computer.  Right now they project Dallas at 12 and Brooklyn at 4. 

Brooklyn is only a game ahead of the Suns for 3, so that's certainly still in play.  3 behind Minny, so that's looking good.

Dallas has a 40% chance of making the playoffs.  Yesterdays loss at home to Indy was big.  They're projected a game behind Utah, so that'll be close.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/