Salary Cap set to explode in 2016-17 (no smoothing)

[Donoghus]

I think we're facing the real possibility of a severe lockout in 2017.  Stage is being set.  Michele Roberts is coming to play.

I'd say it's closer to 'near certainty' than 'real possibility'.

Whatever.  Semantics.  The point being that the players union is coming to play this time & I don't think they're going to cave in like 2011.  Roberts seems bullheaded on that.

[D.o.s.]

If you want to talk semantics, it won't be a lockout. It'll be a strike. 

[saltlover]

If you want to talk semantics, it won't be a lockout. It'll be a strike. 

Fairly sure it will still be a lockout.  There will be no CBA, and owners will initiate a lockout so as to prevent contracts from being signed that would not conform to rules that have yet to be set.

[D.o.s.]

I'm fairly certain it'll be a work stoppage initiated by the workers.

Although the difference is the same one you'll find in the "you can't fire me, I quit" variety of argument.

[colincb]

I think we're facing the real possibility of a severe lockout in 2017.  Stage is being set.  Michele Roberts is coming to play.

I'd say it's closer to 'near certainty' than 'real possibility'.

Whatever.  Semantics.  The point being that the players union is coming to play this time & I don't think they're going to cave in like 2011.  Roberts seems bullheaded on that.

She does seem bullheaded, but unless the union is prepared to strike, and I think it unlikely that they will be, they'll lose again.

[Donoghus]

I think we're facing the real possibility of a severe lockout in 2017.  Stage is being set.  Michele Roberts is coming to play.

I'd say it's closer to 'near certainty' than 'real possibility'.

Whatever.  Semantics.  The point being that the players union is coming to play this time & I don't think they're going to cave in like 2011.  Roberts seems bullheaded on that.

She does seem bullheaded, but unless the union is prepared to strike, and I think it unlikely that they will be, they'll lose again.

Union has two plus years to prepare a contingency for this;  strike/lockout fund, etc...

After getting nailed to the wall in '11 and then seeing how much the subsequent tv rights went for  in addition to whatever other revenue streams are coming in, I think its shaping up to be ugly.

[saltlover]

I'm fairly certain it'll be a work stoppage initiated by the workers.

Although the difference is the same one you'll find in the "you can't fire me, I quit" variety of argument.

Nyet.  The players will opt out of the agreement, but if the owners don't initiate a lockout, the players' existing contracts will still be effective, and there will be no salary cap preventing some owners signing players to new contracts.  People work al the time without a CBA being in effect -- this would be no different unless the owners lock the players out, which they will.  Thus the owners initiate the work stoppage.

[D.o.s.]

Today is the day I am wrong all the time in this thread.

[slamtheking]

bear with me for asking a dumb question here but is this TV deal actually signed or is it still in the speculation phase?  I don't recall seeing an actual deal signed yet but I'm not following the situation intently.

also, is it just me or does anyone else look at these dollar figures in complete amazement just waiting for the money bubble to pop one year sending the league/players into a tizzy?

[D.o.s.]

bear with me for asking a dumb question here but is this TV deal actually signed or is it still in the speculation phase?  I don't recall seeing an actual deal signed yet but I'm not following the situation intently.

also, is it just me or does anyone else look at these dollar figures in complete amazement just waiting for the money bubble to pop one year sending the league/players into a tizzy?

The deal got signed back in October (and I'm actually right about this):
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11652297/nba-extends-television-deals-espn-tnt

$24B over nine years.

[Emmette Bryant]

Today is the day I am wrong all the time in this thread.

TP for showing self knowledge.

 

[colincb]

I think we're facing the real possibility of a severe lockout in 2017.  Stage is being set.  Michele Roberts is coming to play.

I'd say it's closer to 'near certainty' than 'real possibility'.

Whatever.  Semantics.  The point being that the players union is coming to play this time & I don't think they're going to cave in like 2011.  Roberts seems bullheaded on that.

She does seem bullheaded, but unless the union is prepared to strike, and I think it unlikely that they will be, they'll lose again.

Union has two plus years to prepare a contingency for this;  strike/lockout fund, etc...

After getting nailed to the wall in '11 and then seeing how much the subsequent tv rights went for  in addition to whatever other revenue streams are coming in, I think its shaping up to be ugly.

We will see how prepared the NBA players union is. It is unlike other unions that can pick out targets within an industry and subsidize strikes at those targets through dues taken in elsewhere.

Also unlike other unions, it has a have vs have-not situation where the people that benefit the most from the current CBA structure have by far the fewest votes. We'll see how long the have-nots are prepared to fight for the haves.

IOW, the owners are likely to be more united, more able to bear a strike, and they have won before playing hardball.