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A promising spin at the odds
« on: May 20, 2014, 07:03:12 PM »

Offline alexqr1

  • Maine Celtic
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For those who would like to know how the odds would change after each spot the celtics are not selected, I created the chart below.

It turns out the Celts have a combined 42.8% chance of landing either the 6, 7 or 8 spot.
If they are not selected in either of those spots, they would be left with a 41.6% chance of getting the 5th spot and a 58.39% chance of landing in the top 3. (Since they have 0% chance of getting the 4th spot)

Here's the whole chart:

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Re: A promising spin at the odds
« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2014, 07:06:16 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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so basically if the c's get past # 5 without being selected , they are guaranteed a top 3 pick  ;D Fingers crossed!
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Re: A promising spin at the odds
« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2014, 07:07:25 PM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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Really useful, thanks for the post.  Im just hoping we stay at 5. Falling back to 7 would be disappointing I could live with 6.
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Re: A promising spin at the odds
« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2014, 07:13:34 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
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Quote from: alexqr1 on May 20, 2014, 07:03:12 PM
For those who would like to know how the odds would change after each spot the celtics are not selected, I created the chart below.

It turns out the Celts have a combined 42.8% chance of landing either the 6, 7 or 8 spot.
If they are not selected in either of those spots, they would be left with a 41.6% chance of getting the 5th spot and a 58.39% chance of landing in the top 3. (Since they have 0% chance of getting the 4th spot)

Here's the whole chart:
I'm confused by this.

We have a 33.4% chance at a Top 3 pick.  That leaves 66.6% that we end up picking 5-8. 

Edit:  Nevermind.  I get it.  Good stuff.
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Re: A promising spin at the odds
« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2014, 07:17:24 PM »

Offline Celtics39

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Great stuff, TP.

If we get through 8, 7, and 6, we have almost a 60% chance at a top 3 pick! Love it!
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Re: A promising spin at the odds
« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2014, 07:20:46 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
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Quote from: Celtics39 on May 20, 2014, 07:17:24 PM
Great stuff, TP.

If we get through 8, 7, and 6, we almost have a 60% chance at a top 3 pick! Love it!
That would be exciting if we get that far.  Not holding my breathe... our most likely pick is statistically #6.
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Re: A promising spin at the odds
« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2014, 07:22:49 PM »

Offline esel1000

  • Ed Macauley
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Quote from: LarBrd33 on May 20, 2014, 07:20:46 PM
Quote from: Celtics39 on May 20, 2014, 07:17:24 PM
Great stuff, TP.

If we get through 8, 7, and 6, we almost have a 60% chance at a top 3 pick! Love it!
That would be exciting if we get that far.  Not holding my breathe... our most likely pick is statistically #6.

It sounds pathetic but with our past lottery luck I'll be happy if we get past 8th and 7th
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