Predicting trade down if order stands

[CFAN38]

There's questionable value in this draft beyond the top three or four picks. Ainge has stated publicly this draft is overrated, and I completely concur.

I don't see Ainge trading down at all to accumulate picks. If he moves the 5 pick, it willi be for a veteran player.

I'm curious which veteran players you think would be (1) worth the #5/6 pick and (2) would be available for a package centered around that pick.

I could see a trade of the #5 Smart for #12 and Afflalo  from the magic

[BleedGreen1989]

There's questionable value in this draft beyond the top three or four picks. Ainge has stated publicly this draft is overrated, and I completely concur.

I don't see Ainge trading down at all to accumulate picks. If he moves the 5 pick, it willi be for a veteran player.

I'm curious which veteran players you think would be (1) worth the #5/6 pick and (2) would be available for a package centered around that pick.

I could see a trade of the #5 Smart for #12 and Afflalo  from the magic

Hmm interesting...

[PhoSita]

There's questionable value in this draft beyond the top three or four picks. Ainge has stated publicly this draft is overrated, and I completely concur.

I don't see Ainge trading down at all to accumulate picks. If he moves the 5 pick, it willi be for a veteran player.

I'm curious which veteran players you think would be (1) worth the #5/6 pick and (2) would be available for a package centered around that pick.

I could see a trade of the #5 Smart for #12 and Afflalo  from the magic

Meh.  I like Afflalo just fine, but he's not a big enough upgrade over Avery to justify dropping down out of the top 5 in the draft into the late lottery.

[jambr380]

If we are dropping out of the top 8, the player we are acquiring better at least have solid all-star potential. I could see a Monroe/8 for Green/5 and think it would make sense for both teams. I would like to hold on to our #17, though. I guess maybe we could throw in the 2nd rounders (to be) next year from Philly. I really like Monroe and would be happy with any of the top 8.

[slamtheking]

If Danny were looking to stockpile young talent, maybe make a deal with PHX like one of the following
#5 and the Clips pick (protected) for #14, #18, #27.  That's if he doesn't think anyone at #5 is that much better than those farther down and he wants to try a massive influx of young talent (or a trade for a prime-time player) with 4 firsts this year.

Highly doubtul this would ever happen but just throwing it out there

[CoachBo]

There's questionable value in this draft beyond the top three or four picks. Ainge has stated publicly this draft is overrated, and I completely concur.

I don't see Ainge trading down at all to accumulate picks. If he moves the 5 pick, it willi be for a veteran player.

I'm curious which veteran players you think would be (1) worth the #5/6 pick and (2) would be available for a package centered around that pick.

I'm curious which players you think aren't.

As with the romantic notion that Rondo will take a huge discount to stay in Boston, those of you who are draft-happy and would welcome a five-year draft-centric rebuild are going to be sorely disappointed.

Rondo's first priority is to get paid. What keeps me awake at night is the notion that Ainge might pay him what he wants. Overpaying for a limited offensive player with a bad knee could set the rebuild back a decade.

But Ainge doesn't have five years to wait. Ownership wants to get better now. Building through the draft solely = not happening.

And just to keep you draftniks up at night, remember J.R. Giddens? Fab Melo? JJ Johnson? Shall I recite the useful players taken after all of the above?

Those three names should strike terror in the hearts of anyone who wants to rely on Ainge's drafting to rebuild the Celtics.

Ainge can get value at 1 through 4. Anything below, trade it. Don't waste it on a headcase - Smart - or an unproven commodity - Exum.

And below that - Ainge has said this draft is overrated. The fans who don't want to believe that say he's blowing smoke.

In honor of all the people here regularly who refuse to believe what doesn't fit their personal narratives, I say he isn't. And that he's right.

[Cman]

There's questionable value in this draft beyond the top three or four picks. Ainge has stated publicly this draft is overrated, and I completely concur.

I don't see Ainge trading down at all to accumulate picks. If he moves the 5 pick, it willi be for a veteran player.

or *future* picks

[erisred]

Ainge won't trade down.

He'll trade the pick for immediate help.

I wouldn't be surprised if he traded down to get a later lottery pick while picking up a player that still has some potential to improve.

I don't see him making the moves this summer to cash in assets like the #5 pick to get anyone that's been mentioned as a trade target.  This team is more than 1 move away from contending and I can't see Ainge rushing to apply a bandaid to this team

Yeah, I think the C's are more than 1 move away from contending, too. If Danny trades the pick this year, it'll probably be to set up a future move, not for immediate help. Ainge's MO is to build assets by drafting, developing and by churning players until he has the proper mix and an opportunity presents itself for a big score.

But, hey! Who knows. If a really good deal presents itself that advances the timeline, I'm sure Danny will jump on it.

[Eja117]

I would think they might make the picks and then trade after

[PhoSita]

I'm curious which veteran players you think would be (1) worth the #5/6 pick and (2) would be available for a package centered around that pick.

I'm curious which players you think aren't.

Here's a list of the league leaders in Win Shares this season. That provides a general sense of who the most productive, useful players in the league were this season.


Near the very top, you have Kevin Love.  That's the name of everybody's lips these days.  I don't think the T-Wolves will give him up until the trade deadline next season, though.  So he's out.

Then there's Carmelo, who I think wants a big stage, to make a lot of money, or to join a totally loaded team.  Ideally all of those.  That means Chicago, Houston . . . or just staying in New York.

I've seen Marc Gasol mentioned, and that's an intriguing idea.  But Memphis had a really good record this season when Marc was healthy and they just pushed the Thunder to 7, so I feel like the right play for them will be to tinker with the supporting cast rather than hit reset.

Among the rest of the top 50, the sort of names that pop out as probably being available (given a good enough offer) are guys like Marcin Gortat, Chandler Parsons, Trevor Ariza, Kyle Lowry, David Lee, Lance Stephenson, Isaiah Thomas, and Andrew Bogut.  None of those guys moves the needle for me at all when thinking about trading a pick in the top 5 or 6.

In theory, I could see Golden State considering offers for Klay Thompson, or Atlanta entertaining offers for Al Horford.  Those guys would interest me some.  I think in both cases the teams will wait, though.


I'm not interested in seeing Ainge trade down, or out of the lottery entirely, to get a middle of the road player.  You don't trade a top draft pick to secure a supporting guy.  Not when what your team lacks most is a lead man.