We Need to Keep Humphries

[hpantazo]

Poor shot selection? I thought everyone knew the Sully 3's are 100% by Brad Stevens' design. He is trying to develop Sully into a viable three point shooter. First step of that process is to give Sully the green light on open 3's, which is what he has been taking for the most part. That is not bad shot selection. This isn't Antoine Walker fading away from three with two players in his face.

This would have been funny if it weren't sad. I hope the coaching staff doesn't really think skills are "developed" by indiscriminately taking shots you cannot make, and that it is just an elaborate tanking technique.

You forget what it is like to develop players then. How do you think Bradley became a legitimate mid range threat a couple years back? He kept taking them until he made them. You need in game reps to become a good in game shooter. The coaching staff pushed him to take those shots because he was probably a really good practice shooter. If Sully was really taking threes llike crazy,  he'd be benched. It's clearly by design and for his development.

By the way,  I wouldn't say Sully takes threes indiscriminately. He mostly takes threes off of a couple swung passes,  and when he is open. He only takes 2 per game for crying out loud. The coaching staff clearly thinks he can make them. He just needs time and reps.

Bradley become a "legitimate mid-range threat" last season, and his progress clearly shows that he started taking them after he learned to make them.

In 11-12, 30% of his attempts were midrange jump shots, which he made at a 39% clip.
In 12-13, again 30% made at a 44% clip.
This season, 44% midrange jump shots made at a 45% clip.

For one, Bradley was probably never as horrible with his midrange jumper as Sullinger is with his three-point shot. As of today, 22% of Sullinger's shots are threes, and he's making them at a putrid 24%.

About why the coaching staff "pushed" him to take these shots (if they did, that is), I can argue that they thought that's the most efficient way to lose games -- and my guess will be as good as yours. It's a little disappointing, though, that the player doesn't realize he's becoming a laughing stock at this point; he's taken 28 threes over the last 10 games and has only made 3. Just because the staff may be giving you the green light doesn't mean you have to shoot threes.

It has the additional tanking advantage in that it brings one of your best rebounders and post players away from the basket.

[kozlodoev]

It has the additional tanking advantage in that it brings one of your best rebounders and post players away from the basket.

We don't want him to get an accidental putback now, do we? Every game counts!

[MBunge]

As long as Sully is ready to STOP when Stevens says so, it's all good.

Mike

[krumeto]

If Humphries is the heart of your team you have serious issues. I wouldn't want to do any deal with a player of his caliber that would hurt our flexibility in 2015.

He's a Brandon Bass caliber guy, not a building block. Better rebounding than Bass, worse defense. Bass is a guy who we regret having on the cap at 6 per year when we're not contending. It'd be the same with Humphries.

I'd say he's an upgrade over bass. Bigger frame, more sound rebounding and shoots the same, not to mention his hustle and capability of being content with any given role (being consistently good despite fluctuating playing time).

Building blocks aren't just stars like rondo and potential stars like sully, it can also be big time role players like how KO is projected to be by Ainge. A championship contender is always a mix of stars and decent role players, and I see hump fits perfectly in the puzzle in that supporting role. If danny could sign him at a reasonable price for a couple of years,I'd do it.

Humphries doesn't "shoot the same" as Bass. And Sullinger is no way a "potential star".

how is sullinger not a potential star? he is in his 2nd year and putting up solid numbers. best for top 5 of his rookie class.

his ceiling is probably david west at best....who was an all-star with NOL and a key rotational player on a championship contender

Because I don't believe Sullinger has 'David West' potential in him

Staying on the court
David West wasn't an uber-athletic guy, but he's 6'9" and has never weighed over about 240lbs.  He was never a slow, overweight, lumbering oaf.  he was also reasonably disciplined on defense, with a career average of 2.8 fouls committed per 36 minutes. As a result of all this, over his 11 year career he has had only three seasons in which he'd averaged less than 30 MPG.  One season he averaged as much as 39 MPG. 

Sullinger is 6'9" and weighs 280lbs.  He's slow, he's immobile and half the time on the court he looks fatigued.  Over his career he is averaging 5.1 fouls committed per 36 minutes.  Because of a combination of his poor conditioning and lack of discipline on defense he has never averaged more than 27 MPG in a season thus far...and if he doesn't improve his conditioning (which he doesn't look to have done thus far) then he probably never will. 

Offensive efficiency
David west has a career average of 49% from the field and aside from one single season (04-05 where he was injured) he has never shot below 47% on field goal attempts. He's averaged 3.5 free throws made per 36 minutes over his career.  He has never attempted more than 27 three point shots in a season, a career average of about one attempt every three games and about 0.25 attempts per 36 minutes.  He's taken most of this shots from midrange (he was at times considered one of the best midrange shooters in the game) and in the post. 

Sullinger's career FG% so far is 44.4% from the field, which is a horrible number for a big man who's best talents are his rebounding and post game. Why so bad?  For starters he has averaged only 2.1 free throw attempts made per 36 minutes so far over his career, so he's not as effective at scoring from the foul line. 

The bigger problem though is that Sully has had absolutely horrendous shot selection this year - a chucker of epic proportions.  Last season Sully attempted 5 three point shots all season and he finished with a FG% of 49%, showing he can be a very efficient scorer when he wants to be.  However this season he has attempted a rediculous 146 three point attempts.  That's an average of 2.5 attempts per game and 3.3 three point attempts per 36 minutes...and he has connected on only 24% of those attempts. 

To put that into perspective lets take a look at the stats of Josh Smith, a guy who is infamous for his bad shot selection and 'chucking' mentality. 

Over his career Josh Smith has averaged 1.6 three point attempts per 36 minutes.  This season has been his his worst in that regard, with his current average of 3.3 three point attempts per 36 minutes being the highest of his career. Yes, that's right.  Josh Smith - a guy notorious for chucking too many threes and having poor shot selection - in his most chuck-heavy season of his career, is putting up three point attempts at the same rate as Sully is this year.

The difference is that Smith can actually partially justify those attempts because:

1) He is playing the more perimeter oriented SF postition (not his choice - this is by default because of Monroe / Drummond)
2) He has shot an almost respectable 28.5% from three for his career...certainly not great, but enough to at least warrant sending a defender after him...unlike the especially woeful 24% that Sully is shooting.

Lets put this further into perspective. 

Jeff Green has the highest number of three point attempts on the Celtics team, with 283 total attempts (or 4.9 attempts per 36 minutes).  He is shooting a perfectly respectable 35% from three.

If we skip Jerryd Bayless (who has attempted 147 total threes, but only 64 as a Celtic) then Jarred Sullinger has the second highest number of three point attempts among all Celtic, with 146 total attempts...yet he's shooting them at a horribly disgraceful 24% from three.   

Lets put things further into perspective. 

Sully ranks 14th among all NBA power forwards in total three point attempts, yet he is the only player in the top 20 (for PF attempts) who shoots below 30%.   

What does all of this tell us?

It tells us that Jarred Sullinger not only has the worst shot selection of any player on this Celtics roster, he has some of the worst shot selection of any player in this ENTIRE LEAGUE.  He makes guys like Josh Smith and Jordan Crawford look like a godsend on offense. I have lost count of the number of times I have seen him jack up ill advised threes early in the shot clock with a defender 2 feet away.

So lets look at a summary of Sullinger right now:

Undersized for position - check
Poor conditioning - check
Lack of agility and footspeed - check
Foul prone - check
Poor defensive attitude - check (flagrant foul total is proof of this)
Poor offensive attitude - check (poor shot selection is proof of this)
Poor overall attitude - check (the fact that his dad had to give him a pep talk to improve his attitude is proof of this)
Inconsistent jump shot - check (still needs work here)
Struggles to score against length - check
Struggles to defend against quicker bigs - check
Stuggles to defend against taller bigs - check

So what exactly about Sullinger's game screams star potential?  He's an elite rebounder (about 11.5 per 36 minutes), which is a valid point. He's an above average passer for a big man, but has a tendancy to force bad shots.  He scores at a solid rate, but with poor efficiency.  His IQ is high, but his mentality is questionable.  He has good physical strength but lacks mobility, stamina and length.

If (and it's a BIG 'if') Sullinger makes astronomical leaps with his conditioning, improves his decision making, improves his attitude and develops a more consistent jump shot...then maybe he has a chance to become a borderline All-Star in the mould of a Carlos Boozer.  Maybe.  That is his celing.  If he doesn't then he will slowly develop into some type of nasty combination of DeMarcus Cousins (attitude), Antoine Walker (shot selection) and an aged 280lb Shawn Kemp (conditioning).  Not so appealing.

IMHO we should trade him now while his value is high, before opposing teams catch up and realise all of the above.  I have much more confidence in Kelly Olynyk who IMHO has far higher upside thanks to being a better shooter, better passer, better ball handler, more agile, better conditoned, better size, better attitude, better shot selection, comaprable IQ, higher defensive upside (due to size and mobility) and almost as good rebounding (9 rebounds per 36 minutes) and post up game. 

Yes, if Sullinger is truly a 'building block' of the future we are in big trouble.  Kris Humprheys has been a FAR better player than Sullinger for us this year, and he's also been a harder working and has had a better attitude.  He might not have the same overall skill level as Sullinger, but he understands his strenths and weaknesses and he plays within his abilities. He plays hard on defense, he does a solid job of protecting the rim (around 2 blocks per 36 minutes), he's an elite rebounder, he's a solid defender and he has the type of great veteran leadership (through his attitude and work ethic) that a young team needs.

Given the choice I would keep Olynyk, re-sign Humphreys, Re-sign Bradley and try to offload Sully for a decent defensive center (such as Okafor) and/or a mid-to-late lottery pick.   

We should not forget West was 23 (an year older than Sully now) when he entered the league. If we compare their second years (although West was 24 and Sully just turned 22 days ago) Sully has a clear edge in almost every possible category. That not mentioning the back surgery not exactly helping his weight room activities in the summer. So the David West potential comparison is more than valid and if anything, underestimating Sully.

@Hump - he would be a great back up PF on a contending team. All will depend on draft night scenarios and his demands afterwards.

[crimson_stallion]

1.  Sully is undersized at PF because he is average height at best, but has a short wingspan and lacks the ability to get any time of reasonable elevation.  There are guys out there at PF who are 6'9" but play bigger because they have above average wingspan (hence they have the reach of a 6'10" or 6'11" guy) or they have impressive leaping ability that allows them to affect shots that a typical 6'9" guy couldn't.  Sully does not have those attributes.  He tends to struggle against the taller PF's in the game, and hence I classify him as underszied.

2.  The abundance of flagrant fouls very much does point to poor attitude on defense.  There is a different between a hard playoff foul and a flagrant foul.  Flagrant fouls are fouls that are classified by the league as being unsportsmanlike - fouls with with unecessary levels of force (i.e. intentionally throwing elbows, throwing other players to the floor, etc), fouls that present a high risk of injury (such as around the head or neck) or fouls that are outside of the flow of the game (i.e. being physical with another player when the ball isn't even in play yet). This very much indicates a poor and 'thug' like attitude much like Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade, whom Celtics fans largely hate for exactly these reasons.  How many players have been injured as a result of dangrous flagrant fouls that guys like Howard and Wade have committed?  Everybody gets the occasional flagrant from time to time by accident just because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.  When you have as many as Sully does this year, it's no accident.  The idea of "if I can't stop you from scoring I will take you out of the game" is not a good attitude.

3.  You are blaming the mass of bad three point attempts from Sully on coach Stevens.  Ok.  Where are all the tons of bad threes being thrown up by Olynyk, by Faverani, by Bass, by Humphreys?  Okynyk is a big and he's taking threes at times as well, but he's taking a reasonable amount of them and he's making them at a decent rate.  Where is your recording of this conversation between Stevens and Sully where he said "I don't care if you have a defender in your face or what the scenario is...I just want you to chuck up threes every chance you get"?  Have you seen this down in writing somehwere?   I'm sure Stevens is ENCOURAGING Sully to be confident taking threes and not to hessitate if he's left wide open in the right game situation.  I'm sure he's not pushing him to fire up bad threes with defenders running at him 10 seconds in to the shot clock.  And that's only the start of it - was watching the game the other day and Sully caught the ball, pump faked, had a defender all over him...then he waited for the defender to come back down and tried to do an up-and-under jumpshot from 12-15 feet away.  All while Chris Johnson was absolutely wide open at the three point line.  Needless to say the shot was a brick.  Sully's shot selection is terrible, there is no other way to look at it.

4.   Yes, that is evidence of poor attitude.  Accoding to Sully's own words, his dad basicaly had to sit him down and tell him to pull his finger out of his butt, stop being lazy, and do something about his attitude.  Then after this suddenly he started playing better for about 5-10 games, then went right back to the old self.  One of Sully's biggest strong points was supposed to be his attitude and maturity. If he needs to be babied by his dad to convince him to not be lazy, gets suspended for a game for being in the news for domestic violence, and then risks missing games because he's collecting flagrant fouls like they are gold stars...these are all signs of an attitude problem.

5. What you say about Sully is right.  He's not a 5 year vet.  He is inexperienced.  Last season he was a rookie on a playoff team, so lack of playing team was perfectly understandable.  This year Sully is supposed to be the second or third best player on the 5th or 6th worst team in the NBA.  There is absolutely no justification for lack of playing time except the fact that he is horribly out of condition and cannot stay on the court withoug piling up a ton of fouls. His condition this season looks no better than it did his rookie year, nor has his weight dropped.  His tendancy to pick up fouls also hasn't improved since his rookie year.  Will he improve these things in the future?  Maybe.  Has he made an improvement in these two areas yet?  No.  Can he be depended on to play 35 mins a game?  No. What is the point of having a star that cannot stay on the court?  That just puts us right back into a 2013 KG situation.  The Fact that Sully's conditioning is on par with that of a 37 year old 7 footer is a bit...worrying.

[LooseCannon]

2.  The abundance of flagrant fouls very much does point to poor attitude on defense.  There is a different between a hard playoff foul and a flagrant foul.  Flagrant fouls are fouls that are classified by the league as being unsportsmanlike - fouls with with unecessary levels of force (i.e. intentionally throwing elbows, throwing other players to the floor, etc), fouls that present a high risk of injury (such as around the head or neck) or fouls that are outside of the flow of the game (i.e. being physical with another player when the ball isn't even in play yet). This very much indicates a poor and 'thug' like attitude much like Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade, whom Celtics fans largely hate for exactly these reasons.  How many players have been injured as a result of dangrous flagrant fouls that guys like Howard and Wade have committed?  Everybody gets the occasional flagrant from time to time by accident just because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.  When you have as many as Sully does this year, it's no accident.  The idea of "if I can't stop you from scoring I will take you out of the game" is not a good attitude.

I disagree.  The Celtics need an enforcer who is not afraid to bust some heads.  I don't want the Celtics to be a soft team.  I want someone who will hit back at a guy like Wade.

[pokeKingCurtis]

Sullinger doesn't have a short wingspan. I don't think so anyway.

[CelticsWest714]

Sullinger doesn't have a short wingspan. I don't think so anyway.

I agree with you, he measured out at a 7'1" wingspan coming into the league. Not too shabby

[kozlodoev]

I disagree.  The Celtics need an enforcer who is not afraid to bust some heads.  I don't want the Celtics to be a soft team.  I want someone who will hit back at a guy like Wade.

In my book, you're only an enforcer when your team can actually win games. Otherwise, you're just a playground bully.

Also, dumb flagrants don't send a message. They're just dumb.

[Who]

I disagree.  The Celtics need an enforcer who is not afraid to bust some heads.  I don't want the Celtics to be a soft team.  I want someone who will hit back at a guy like Wade.

In my book, you're only an enforcer when your team can actually win games. Otherwise, you're just a playground bully.

Also, dumb flagrants don't send a message. They're just dumb.

You are only an enforcer if you can intimidate opposing players. Make them hesitant or second guess their move towards the basket.

Nobody does that when Kris Humphries is guarding the paint because nobody is intimidated by Kris Humphries. Not an enforcer.

[D.o.s.]

I disagree.  The Celtics need an enforcer who is not afraid to bust some heads.  I don't want the Celtics to be a soft team.  I want someone who will hit back at a guy like Wade.

In my book, you're only an enforcer when your team can actually win games. Otherwise, you're just a playground bully.

Also, dumb flagrants don't send a message. They're just dumb.

You are only an enforcer if you can intimidate opposing players. Make them hesitant or second guess their move towards the basket.

Nobody does that when Kris Humphries is guarding the paint because nobody is intimidated by Kris Humphries. Not an enforcer.

True, but the last thing I want is that meathead attitude infiltrating our team.

[Fafnir]

I disagree.  The Celtics need an enforcer who is not afraid to bust some heads.  I don't want the Celtics to be a soft team.  I want someone who will hit back at a guy like Wade.

In my book, you're only an enforcer when your team can actually win games. Otherwise, you're just a playground bully.

Also, dumb flagrants don't send a message. They're just dumb.

You are only an enforcer if you can intimidate opposing players. Make them hesitant or second guess their move towards the basket.

Nobody does that when Kris Humphries is guarding the paint because nobody is intimidated by Kris Humphries. Not an enforcer.

Kris Humphries is the opposite when he's guarding the paint. Players eyes light up and they look to drive right at him. Definitely has the reputation as a guy you can score on down low, to the point where I've seen some silly stuff from guards because they drive right into him and just put the ball up unprotected.

[Fafnir]

I disagree.  The Celtics need an enforcer who is not afraid to bust some heads.  I don't want the Celtics to be a soft team.  I want someone who will hit back at a guy like Wade.

In my book, you're only an enforcer when your team can actually win games. Otherwise, you're just a playground bully.

Also, dumb flagrants don't send a message. They're just dumb.

You are only an enforcer if you can intimidate opposing players. Make them hesitant or second guess their move towards the basket.

Nobody does that when Kris Humphries is guarding the paint because nobody is intimidated by Kris Humphries. Not an enforcer.

True, but the last thing I want is that meathead attitude infiltrating our team.

Yeah, but there are two necessary and separate types of intimidation.

The willingness to aggressively contest a shot and deliver the hard foul while risking being dunk or scored on.

And the intimidation that comes from a good shot blocker and defender who you know will take away the easy path to the lane and forces you to adjust your shot accordingly.