Author Topic: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery  (Read 5295 times)

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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2013, 08:10:02 PM »

Offline LilRip

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Tanking looks like a good idea to many people because of the belief that only championships matter.  It's sort of a venture capitalist mindset, where you feel okay with bankrupting nine companies that were profitable before you got your hooks into them and expanded them beyond sustainability because you hit it so big on the tenth one that you make up for your losses on the first nine failures.

Trying to punish tankers won't really work.  Decrease the chance of hope for a desperate team and they will still cling to the long-shot lottery ticket because they are desperate.  What you need to do is to create greater incentive for teams to be satisfied with being a pretty good but not great team.

I'm not sure how to go about it, but one idea I have is giving an "improvement bonus" in the form of salary cap flexibility for teams that improve,  Maybe for teams under the luxury cap who had fewer than 50 wins the previous season, if they increase their win total by two or more, the biannual exception becomes an annual exception.  Or they get the ability to combine the BAE and the MLE so that teams headed in the right direction (but aren't already at the top) have an advantage in the free agent market.

This is a really creative idea. TP.

I dont think the lottery is that bad. Teams that are bad usually need help. Was Cleveland tanking when Lebron left? The reason tanking exists is because average teams - if they don't hit a home run deal - eventually hit a ceiling. And that's why they start over or "tank".

By giving average teams other ways to improve, you should see more teams holding on to their average position in hopes of making a move to make the leap. It'll e tricky though to determine who is average and who needs lottery help. Plus, you might see teams fighting to stay out of the playoffs and land the 9th seed, a different kind of tanking.
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2013, 10:08:09 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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How often is tanking really a problem? I bet nobody can name more than a handful of obvious tank jobs since the lottery began. This draft is supposedly historically great. Every draft is not created equal. You won't see multiple teams tanking for Kenyon Martin or Andrea Bargnani or Kwame Brown.

I guess it depends on your definition of tank.

In my view, you don't have to look any further than this off-season to see teams like the Jazz happily let major free agents walk and use that cap space to take on deadweight salary just for the sake of getting a 1st round pick in the future, or the Sixers trading an All-Star point guard for an injured rookie big man and a probable lottery pick next season, or, for Heaven's sake, the Celtics trading Pierce and Garnett for a bunch of garbage and some probable mid to late 1st round picks over the next few years.

The problem isn't blatant tanking so much as it's the fact that for teams that are just pretty good but not great, the smartest move based on the incentives that the current system creates is to try to get worse in the short term in order to accrue prospects in the future.  So you see a lot of teams intentionally moving backwards.

The thing is though Pho, talent in the NBA is a zero-sum game: every player discarded by the teams you're talking about was acquired by another.

So if your concern is the overall quality of play in the league, in some sense it can't be affected by what you're talking about.

In fact, if bad teams are trying to get worse and selling talent at a discount to better teams, this will actually improve the quality of play when it really counts - in the playoffs. For example, the Nets are now another serious threat in the East because of the Celtics' "tanking." The East is going to be a lot more interesting to watch this year, right?

Now maybe you want parity - fine. Even there, however, did Jefferson and Milsap leaving the Jazz reduce parity or increase it? Both of those guys went to worse teams, and now Kanter and Favors will get the minutes they were starved of playing behind those two. I'd argue that the Jazz, the Bobcats and the Hawks will together have a higher quality of play than without those moves. And aren't the Pelicans going to be much better with Holiday - maybe a playoff contender?

Now, if you're talking about coaches or players intentionally playing worse, that's a different story. But the player movement you're talking about doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing.

PS I actually don't think that the Jazz moves were about "tanking," but that's another discussion.


Your points are well taken.

I would like to see more parity in the league, and the fact that middle of the road teams conducting fire sales sends good players to toil on otherwise talentless teams, or else stocks already good teams with even more talent so that the league becomes more top-heavy, does not really comfort me.


What I'm really getting at, though, is a conundrum that we Celtics fans are very familiar with this summer -- when your team is entering rebuilding, by far the most sensible plan is for your team to get much, much worse for a few years before they get better again.  Unless your team expects to build a super team via free agency, there really aren't any better options (and free agency is a risky proposition; ask the Mavs).  It stinks that the league puts teams in that position.

Wouldn't it have been nice if, instead, the Celtics really could have held onto Pierce and Garnett until both retired, being content with winning 40-45 games for 2-3 seasons and possibly getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs, because their chances of getting some valuable pieces for the future, assuming they made smart moves and drafted well, would not be set back by being decent rather than terrible?

Wouldn't it be nice if no team ever had to think, well, we have some really nice players here, but they aren't good enough for us to become a perennial contender, and we can't really expect to trade them for an elite prospect, either, so we'd better just sell them for pennies on the dollar or let them walk in free agency because the only way to get a blue chipper is to draft high, and the only chance we have of drafting high is to be really bad?
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2013, 10:35:47 PM »

Offline Eja117

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These ideas have some pros and cons, but I think it would be interesting to hear from some other teams...like the Lakers, and the Mavs and hear them say "Hey. We didn't tank. "

When you have teams that just don't want to win...teams like the Clippers of the 90s, the Bobcats now.  How can you help those teams?  It's teams like the Cavs, Bucks, and Hawks that need the help because they are actually trying.....however.   I don't think there's a way to help teams that draft Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams over Chris Paul and Derron Williams. Those teams are right where they should be.  The Cavs...after they took Bron what happened next?  They took Luke Jackson at 10.  In 2006 they took Shannon Brown at 25. In the mean time Danny pulled the trigger and got Rondo at 21. In 2009 they took Christian Eyenga over Dejuan Blair, Chase Budinger, and Marcus Thornton.    The Cavs couldn't keep Bron and if they do the same stuff again they won't be able to keep Kyrie.  By the way. 2011 they went with Tristan Thompson over Jonas and Kenneth Faried.