I agree, I think he's in already.
I like visiting the Basketball-Reference HoF predictor now and again; it's interesting (stats, all-nba, all-star, championships, mvp voting). They have Parker currently as #70 all time and #12 currently active, at about 83% likely to make it. Give him the "International Bump" and I bet he's in.
He's also 31, has matured well, and probably could keep contributing for another 5+ years, to get some of his absolute numbers higher.
Rank Player HoF Prob
1. Kobe Bryant 1.0000
2. Tim Duncan 0.9999
3. Kevin Garnett 0.9990
4. LeBron James 0.9987
5. Dwyane Wade 0.9977
6. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9867
7. Paul Pierce 0.9827
8. Jason Kidd 0.9493
9. Ray Allen 0.9198
10. Chris Paul 0.8911
11. Chris Bosh 0.8805
12. Tony Parker 0.8319
13. Carmelo Anthony 0.8167
14. Dwight Howard 0.8072
15. Vince Carter 0.7678
16. Kevin Durant 0.7203
17. Pau Gasol 0.6127
18. Tracy McGrady 0.5822
19. Steve Nash 0.5627
20. Amar'e Stoudemire 0.5560
21. Grant Hill 0.3553
Side note: This does not favor Grant Hill very much, but I think it ignores college and 'personality' so who knows.
Side note 2: Great thread the other day about Dirk vs. Pierce. Very comparable stars in terms of impact and legacy. Look how close they are here!
All-time, for more context:
60. Chris Paul 0.8911
61. Billy Cunningham* 0.8905
62. Gary Payton* 0.8826
63. Chris Bosh 0.8805
64. Lenny Wilkens* 0.8793
65. Bob Lanier* 0.8782
66. Kevin McHale* 0.8741
67. John Stockton* 0.8609
68. Jo Jo White 0.8449
69. Arnie Risen* 0.8364
70. Tony Parker 0.8319
71. Nate Thurmond* 0.8264
72. James Worthy* 0.8210
73. Carmelo Anthony 0.8167
74. Adrian Dantley* 0.8102
75. Dwight Howard 0.8072
76. Alex English* 0.8008
77. Bobby Wanzer* 0.7799
78. Tiny Archibald* 0.7790
79. Dave Bing* 0.7726
80. Vince Carter 0.7678
On the "Side note: This does not favor Grant Hill very much, but I think it ignores college and 'personality' so who knows. " part, it explains this in the "about" section in regards to the formula that was used.
Basically, he's using a method of logistic regression, which looks all everyone who was inducted, and tries to find statistical trends for who did make it, to forecast who will.
This means, players whose resume doesn't leap off the page in the tangibles are going to be undervalued. There's simply no way to factor in the voters personal feelings and the human element of the vote. The formula can only look at the trends on the categories that they've traditionally valued, based on who has made it.
Edit note: I also can't believe MVP wins aren't factored in at all. I find that very, very odd and it gives me some serious concerns about the formula he's using.
Yeah, it's interesting loooking at the variables. No DPOY, MVP or All-NBA.
I don't know when they started doing DPOY and All-NBA or when they started cataloging MVP voting (as in # of votes for each place), and the guy who did this only used info that existed for the whole NBA history (hence no blocks/steals).
Regression analysis is really interesting in general, especially so in this case. It only looks at "how have people been chosen" and does not at all look at "how should people be chosen", which frustrates (or goes over the head) of a lot of people.
As for MVP wins, i bet the sample is just too small for it to be a statistically significant variable. But MVP ballot appearances might be a good thing to incorporate. I'd love to see this re-done for the post-1970 NBA or whenever that they started recording full MVP balloting, DPOY, all-defense, all-nba, etc, and see if anything shakes out.
Another wrinkle is looking at the formula, except for year played, "nba championship" is the most important variable. Again, this is not the writer saying having played on an NBA championship team SHOULD be the most important thing, it's saying that looking back in history, being on a championship team was the most likely thing to get you into the HoF. I tend to think it's overrated, and likely the reason it has been so important (and figures so prominantly in the rankings) is because the HoF was stacked early on with borderline players who got in over likely better players just because they were on the Celtics.
Topic: If Tony Parker gets Finals MVP, do you think he'll make the HOF? (Read 3880 times)