Blowing Double Digit Leads...Is It Just the Celts?

[LB3533]

It seems like right when our team gets to about a 13 point lead, they inevitably start settling for 3 point shots and trying to hold on to the game rather than put their collective feet on the gas.

I actually think the team does not shoot enough threes with a lead.  One of the papers presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference suggested that teams are too risk-averse and don't shoot enough threes when they have the lead.

Hhmmmm? That seems to fly against perception. I think a lot of people feel that teams with large leads blow the leads because they shoot too many unnecessary 3's and miss.

What I really hate is when the team builds a lead in part by taking and making threes, then completely runs away from that style of play in an attempt to hold the lead.  An example is when a team passes up a high-quality transition three-point attempt in favor of pulling the ball back and getting into a half-court offense, which results in a shot with a lower expected value.

I agree with you 100%, do not stop what got you there. (unless it isn't working or the other team adjusts positively against it)

[connor]

It seems like right when our team gets to about a 13 point lead, they inevitably start settling for 3 point shots and trying to hold on to the game rather than put their collective feet on the gas.

I actually think the team does not shoot enough threes with a lead.  One of the papers presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference suggested that teams are too risk-averse and don't shoot enough threes when they have the lead.

Hhmmmm? That seems to fly against perception. I think a lot of people feel that teams with large leads blow the leads because they shoot too many unnecessary 3's and miss.

What I really hate is when the team builds a lead in part by taking and making threes, then completely runs away from that style of play in an attempt to hold the lead.  An example is when a team passes up a high-quality transition three-point attempt in favor of pulling the ball back and getting into a half-court offense, which results in a shot with a lower expected value.

I agree with you 100%, do not stop what got you there. (unless it isn't working or the other team adjusts positively against it)

I agree with the idea that you don't stop going to the well with something that is working, but its a little different with threes.

I think that when you've built your lead on threes, coaches treat it like a normal person would treat gambling. You quit while you're ahead.

You can run hot and cold with threes very easily, so when you have built a solid lead by hitting a nice run of threes coaches want to quit while they are ahead and get back into their normal offense. They don't want to see the lead they've just built dwindle away like a chip stack in atlantic city from guys suddenly going cold and just chucking em up.

Yes you could keep hitting them and balloon your lead, but you could also throw it all away. Coaches have faith in their half court sets and believe that if they settle into their usual offense they should be able to hold the lead they've built.

I agree it can be very frustrating and I disagree with it at times, but I can see the logic behind it.

[LooseCannon]

I agree it can be very frustrating and I disagree with it at times, but I can see the logic behind it.

The point is, if you look at the numbers, conventional wisdom and things that intuitively make sense are not always right.  Sometimes, unorthodox or counter-intuitive behavior is called for.

Even if you have solid numbers that can back you up, coaches still often have a bias towards conservative, risk-averse strategies in certain spots, such as punting vs going for it on 4th down in the NFL.

[connor]

I agree it can be very frustrating and I disagree with it at times, but I can see the logic behind it.

The point is, if you look at the numbers, conventional wisdom and things that intuitively make sense are not always right.  Sometimes, unorthodox or counter-intuitive behavior is called for.

Even if you have solid numbers that can back you up, coaches still often have a bias towards conservative, risk-averse strategies in certain spots, such as punting vs going for it on 4th down in the NFL.

Yeah SOMETIMES counter-intuitive behavior is what is called for, but generally its not the best course of action.

Of course they will have a bias towards being risk averse, most people do. Coaches have faith in their players and their systems, if they didn't they wouldn't be running them. So in general they will fall back on the normal rather than trying something different (especially when in the lead).

I get that the numbers suggest coaches are too risk averse, but as you said coaches are going to go with what makes sense more often than their gut. Thats especially true when going with the out of the box style of play (going for it on 4th down) is going to get you railed against far more than the risk averse play.

[SHAQATTACK]

blowing double digit leads .....

is nothing but a  conspiracy ....

to sell me more drugs to calm my nerves.

[mmmmm]

It's not just the Celts.

Blowing a double digit lead only takes 4 possessions.   Heck, throw in a Technical foul and you can do it in three.

On average, you are going to score on roughly half of your possessions just with 'normal' play.   An average NBA team will 'normally' commit a TO once every 8 or 9 possessions so that means about of your 4 possessions, you have about 3.5 possessions on which to score.

So, over a 4 possession span, if you screw things up just a little extra bad ... perhaps you commit that one extra TO.   Perhaps a travel.  Or a moving pick.   Or a push off or hold by someone away from the ball.   None of those are even 'basketball' moves (like a bad pass or lost dribble).  They are mental errors.   AAARGH!   Or maybe you get a bad call (a charge that should have been a block, etc.).   It's not like bad officiating ever happens ...

Now you are down to 2.5 possessions. 

On any possession, the most important shot is the first shot.  Once it leaves your hand, defenses grab, on average, 73% of the rebounds.   So in your remaing 2.5 possessions, you are on average going to get just a hair over 3 shots with which to score.

It is very easy to miss 3 shots in a row, unfortunately.

So one anomalous, stupid mental error and a cold shooting glitch and just like that - scoreless for 4 possessions.

Meanwhile, the flip side is that  it is very easy for a team to NOT make that 'normal' TO during a stretch.   So they get the full 4 possessions worth of shots.   And maybe they get a little hot streak and make all 4 first shots.  Hell, they don't even need to grab any offensive rebounds.

Boom!   Just like that, a double digit lead is gone.

For exhibit A:  I present the long span of the 3rd period of last night's BOS vs NOH game:   During which the C's did everything they could to blow this game.  They turned the ball over a couple of extra times.  Probably the worst things is:  They missed FIVE layup/dunk shots!!!!!!

Those 5 gimme shots should have been 10 points.  Even WITH the ugly turnovers, we'd have won easily if we could just put the [dang] ball in the hoop on layups and dunks.

Ugh.

[Celtics4ever]

Late gaming scoring has hurt us since 09!

[Meadowlark_Scal]

The miami game was an obvious ref issue.....the refs are pro's at stemming momentum...travelling on Green, 3 instant fouls on Bradley, 2 on terry.....there you go....all had to sit to avoid having too many fouls too early.....miami can hit you anywhere they want...no call, chalmers was hitting our guys off the ball all night...even tommy H was saying so......it is so sick...lebron may win things, but he will NEVER =  Bird, Jordon, or Magic.....heck in Bird & Magics days, they hardly called ANYTHING.....!!!