Ranking 2012 Prospects in Tiers - Ford

[Kane3387]

I have heard many times that all GMs, for the most part, rank players into tiers. Then based on these tiers they pick based on need. Thus regardless of need if the last player in the remaining top tier is available then you take him whether it is a position of need or not.

Below are the tiers that Ford has gotten from talking to all the GMs.

Tier 1
Anthony Davis
Note: This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars/franchise players. Last year, we didn't have anyone here. In 2010, John Wall was the only guy in this tier. In 2009, Blake Griffin was the only one. This year Davis is the only player in the draft to get the nod.

Tier 2
Harrison Barnes
Bradley Beal
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Thomas Robinson
Note: Tier 2 is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. Robinson, Beal and Kidd-Gilchrist got the nod for Tier 2 from every GM I spoke with. Barnes, who has been rising on draft boards the past few weeks after some stellar athletic testing numbers at the NBA combine, was on 75 percent of the lists.

Tier 3
Andre Drummond
Damian Lillard
Dion Waiters
Note: This is a smaller than usual Tier 3. These are the only three players (outside of the five mentioned already) that were consensus top-10 picks among the GMs I spoke with. Of the group, Drummond and Lillard had every vote. Waiters was on most of the ballots. Drummond is the toughest guy to peg. One team has him No. 2 on their draft board. Others are much more nervous about him and see a high bust potential. He barely missed the Tier 2 cut. Interestingly, a few teams had Waiters in Tier 2, while a few teams had him in Tier 4. That's a pretty big spread.

Tier 4
John Henson
Perry Jones III
Terrence Jones
Jeremy Lamb
Meyers Leonard
Kendall Marshall
Austin Rivers
Terrence Ross
Jared Sullinger
Tyler Zeller
Note: After Tier 3, it's very difficult to find a real consensus here. There are 10 players here for a total of five spots left in the lottery. A few players, like Jeremy Lamb and Austin Rivers, got a few votes in Tier 3. A few others, like Kendall Marshall, got some Tier 5 votes. But in general, this group makes up the 10-20 range of the draft. (We should note that I received some of these responses before GMs had a chance to review Sullinger's physical. He is in Tier 5 on some teams' boards now.)

Tier 5
Moe Harkless
Fab Melo
Quincy Miller
Arnett Moultrie
Andrew Nicholson
Marquis Teague
Royce White
Tony Wroten Jr.
Note: This next group looks like locks for the first round, but most likely won't make the lottery. A few teams had Harkless, Melo and Moultrie in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Wroten and Miller were borderline picks here. Both players dropped out of the top 30 on at least one NBA team's draft board.

Tier 6
Furkan Aldemir
Will Barton
Jared Cunningham
Festus Ezeli
Evan Fournier
Draymond Green
John Jenkins
Orlando Johnson
Doron Lamb
Kyle O'Quinn
Kostas Papanikolaou
Miles Plumlee
Jeff Taylor
Tyshawn Taylor
Note: This is what I would call the first-round bubble group and where the consensus really started to break down. A few teams had Fournier, Green, Jeff Taylor and Barton in Tier 5, but many did not. Overall there are just four spaces left in the first round ... so most of the players on this list are falling to the second round.

More Ford:


So how does the tier system work?

A team ranks players in each tier according to team need. So, in Tier 3, if shooting guard is the biggest need, a player like Rivers or Ross is ranked No. 1. If center is the biggest need, Leonard or Zeller is ranked No. 1.

The rules are pretty simple. You always draft the highest-ranked player in a given tier. Also, you never take a player from a lower tier if one from a higher tier is available. So, for example, if the Pistons are drafting No. 9 (Tier 3 territory) and Damian Lillard (a Tier 3 player) is on the board, they take him regardless of positional need. If they have Meyers Leonard ranked No. 1 in Tier 4, they still take Lillard even though center is a more pressing need.

This system protects teams from overreaching based on team need. The Pistons won't pass on a clearly superior player like Waiters to fill a need with Perry Jones. However, the system also protects a team from passing on a player who fits a need just because he might be ranked one or two spots lower overall.

The Pistons actually followed this model last year at the draft. While the consensus was they needed a big, when Brandon Knight, who they had ranked in a higher tier fell, they took him anyway.

My all-time favorite historical example is from the Atlanta Hawks. GM Billy Knight took Marvin Williams ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005, and Shelden Williams ahead of a guards such as Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo in 2006 because of positional needs.

[mctyson]

It is looking more and more like Sullinger could fall in our laps.  I think you swing for the fences on him, medical risks be [dang]ed.

Then we would finally have a "Sully" to root for on the Celtics.

[KGs Knee]

Our picks (21 & 22) are both solidly in tier 5, right?

As long as we don't get stuck with Miller, Teague or Wroten I'd be perfectly fine with any of the other players from tier 5.  My preference is Moultrie and/or Nicholson, but I suspect they'll both be gone before we pick.

Hopefully Sullinger is gone before we pick too, but I'm afraid he might fall to us and Danny picks him.  I'd rather see him be someone else's bust.

[Yogi]

Sullinger (potential medical issues aside) and Austin Rivers are lock tier 2.  They are both children of coaches and you can't underestimate their fundamentals.  If Sullinger falls to us, we should be celebrating.

[slamtheking]

surprised Moultrie isn't tier 3 and that Melo isn't a tier 5.  other than those 2, no surprises.

If the draft played out like this, only tier 5 players left for the C's and 2 of those are already gone, I'm hoping some dope takes Melo and White off the board at 19 and 20 before Danny picks so that Moultrie falls right into our laps.  Adding Harkless or Nicholson after that would just be gravy to me

[jyyzzoel]

michael kidd-gilchrist is a tier one player.i dont care what anyone says.

bradley beal is a tier two player, but borderline tier one.

i remember chad for and bill simmons once did a mock draft together of the 2007 nba draft and chad ford said he would take oden over durant, and simmons said he would take durant over oden... ever since i saw that i questioned chad fords credibility and ability to determine a players true value:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

[Yogi]

Terrence Jones is also a second tier players.  I hope he goes to a good team with a patient coach.

[BleedGreen1989]

surprised Moultrie isn't tier 3 and that Melo isn't a tier 5.  other than those 2, no surprises.

If the draft played out like this, only tier 5 players left for the C's and 2 of those are already gone, I'm hoping some dope takes Melo and White off the board at 19 and 20 before Danny picks so that Moultrie falls right into our laps.  Adding Harkless or Nicholson after that would just be gravy to me

Same, moultire really is the guy I'm hoping falls to the celtics at 21, it's possible. Not doing some combine drills definitely hurt his stock. If we could add Harkless at 22..I'd be estatic.

[dmopower]

95 out of 100 people would have taken Oden over durant. There were very few of us that would have taken Durant first. And honestly no one could forsee the medical issues Oden ended up with.

Id say no one should lose credibility for wanting to take Oden first.

michael kidd-gilchrist is a tier one player.i dont care what anyone says.

bradley beal is a tier two player, but borderline tier one.

i remember chad for and bill simmons once did a mock draft together of the 2007 nba draft and chad ford said he would take oden over durant, and simmons said he would take durant over oden... ever since i saw that i questioned chad fords credibility and ability to determine a players true value:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

[chambers]

michael kidd-gilchrist is a tier one player.i dont care what anyone says.

bradley beal is a tier two player, but borderline tier one.

i remember chad for and bill simmons once did a mock draft together of the 2007 nba draft and chad ford said he would take oden over durant, and simmons said he would take durant over oden... ever since i saw that i questioned chad fords credibility and ability to determine a players true value:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

I'd disagree with you on every point you've made in this post.
Gilchrist has serious problems getting his shot off over length even at the college level- against longer defenders in the NBA that will post even more problems. Look at his shooting mechanics- they are absolutely horrible. He pushes the ball like a pass outwards and not upwards like the great shooters do.
I love him but he is not a definite tier 1 prospect. Some would even put him in tier 3.

Beal is not on Davis' level. He's not a sure fire All Star unless he develops his drive and aggression going to the hoop.
He does have the potential to be the next Ray Allen, but he is not a 'sure thing' like Anthony Davis.

Greg Oden was slated by pretty much every scout as the next Shaquille Oneal.
Durant looked great, but his size and strength were questioned- particularly on the defensive end guarding other small forwards. Case in point Lebron James man handling him on both ends of the NBA finals.
I'm not going to bag Durant but as the poster above me suggested, 99% of GM's on planet earth would have taken the man child Oden ahead of Durant because size rules in the NBA.
He was tested by the best doctors in the US and they could not foresee such problems with his skeletal problems in his limbs.

No disrespect, I just don't agree with you.

[Tr1boy]

I have no idea how Terence Ross is 2 tiers higher than Jeff Taylor. You are talking about all defensive sec , 2 years straight. And every year has improved his stats, offensive game.

Ross is good too, just not two tier better. In fact even a guy like MKG is not either.

Taylor and the celtics are made for each other. I will be awaiting to see his avery bradley like defense and thunderous dunks next year.