Looking at the NBA Standings and Celtics Schedule:
C's play 7 more games until the NBA Trade Deadline
6 of 7 are against teams currently 0.500 and above and all 7 are against teams 0.400 and above. Say the C's go 3-4 in that stretch. They'll be 21-21 or 0.500 at the NBA Trade Deadline on March 15, 2012. Now if Ainge decides to Blow Up The C's at that point, and they try and succeed at losing the rest of their 24 games. They'll be 21-45 with a winning percentage of 0.318. Currently that puts them in the 6th to 8th worst record in the league, winning pct-wise, assuming the teams at the bottom win at the same clip and don't take their tanking up a notch.
Even if the C's try this method, we all know how that worked out last time in 2007. The C's got the lowest possible pick #5 they could get with the 2nd worst record in the league. Order of finish was 6th, 5th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd worst records for the top 6 picks. It almost seemed like David Stern was punishing teams with the 3 worst records that year for tanking while trying to make it realistic by having the next 3 worst records get the top 3 picks.
How much more would a 6 to 10 pick (say C's finish with 9th worst record and a team behind them jumps into the top 3) be worth than a non-lottery, #15 pick? (worst record of teams to make the playoffs)