Next year... not that different than this year. And that's a good thing (?).

[TheRev72]

I have a feeling next year's team might look a lot like this year's team. Or at least, like this year's team was supposed to look before Green's heart issues. And that's probably a good thing (?).

First off, according to Hoopshype, if the Celtics renounce all their free agents they have about $35M in committed salary next year with Rondo, Pierce, Bradley, Bass and JJJ under contract. (I thought Moore might have signed a two year deal as well, but I'm not sure). I'm thinking Bass opts in at his $4M per year b/c he seems to like playing for the Celtics, and will likely be rewarded with a bigger payday down the road. See http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

That leaves about $23M in cap space (if the cap is around $58M). I think it's a foregone conclusion that the team signs Jeff Green. He appears to be part of the "family." Since they offered him $9M before the heart issue, I'll bet he receives a similar offer, with a lower staring salary and some options in case of health problems. So I'm just going to roll with a $7M number. That puts the team at about $42M.

I have a hard time seeing KG and Ray Allen going anywhere. They'll negotiate "wink-wink" discount deals with Ainge when the dust settles on the free agent market.

So, I see the starting five looking like:

Rondo
Pierce (moving to shooting guard)
Green
KG
(Center to be signed).

With Bradley, Ray Allen, Moore, Bass and JJJ as signed bench players.

Clearly the team should go after a new starting "big" alongside KG (bye-bye JO), and there appear to be a lot of players on the free agent list next year that could fill that role. Looking at Hoopshype, the following players are of interest:

Dwight Howard (pipe-dream)
Roy Hibbert (restricted)
Brook Lopez (restricted)
Chris Kaman
JaVale McGee (restricted)
Omer Asik,
Mehmet Okur
Hasheem Thabeet (team option)
Kosta Koufos (restricted)
Tim Duncan (Ha!)
J.J. Hickson
Jason Thompson (restricted)
Marreese Speights (restricted)
Anthony Randolph (restricted)
Ersan Ilyasova
Jason Maxiel (player option)
Ian Mahinmi

I deliberately left off a few ancient guys (Camby, Nazr Mohammed, Ben Wallace) in hopes Ainge will look to get younger.

I may be a homer, but I think you add one of the marquee bigs above, or a couple of the lesser guys, and the Celtics are still a contender. Thoughts?

[Roy H.]

Never trust Hoopshype.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2012/1/27/2752081/how-much-money-do-we-have-for-free-agents-anyway

[jambr380]

Nice post, and I agree that unless something comes along that seems promising for our future, there is no reason to believe anything is going to be different next year. Adding Green and a decent big would help, but none of the [good] bigs you listed will really be available, as they are all restricted. I still believe that Danny will try to go all-in on the Howard Sweepstakes (and possibly Deron if we trade Rondo for a player still on his rookie contract), but I wouldn't hate watching this team for another year. I have really enjoyed watching this mature and regal Celtics team the past several years.

[PosImpos]

Celtics will go into full on rebuilding mode this summer.  Ainge is a rational, dispassionate guy when it comes to this stuff, and he's gonna see that it's time to start the rebuild process.  None of the big name free agents are going to come here.

The team next year will have a lot of familiar faces, but also a lot of new ones.  I think we'll get to see a lot more of guys like Bradley, Moore, Stiemsma, Johnson, and perhaps Bass, Pietrus, Pavlovic, Wilcox, etc.

I agree with you that Jeff Green will be back (on a one year deal), and otherwise the team will be filled up with rookies (2 first round picks and 1 second round pick) along with a couple veteran pickups on cheap, short deals.

I'm not sure what will happen with Pierce, or if Ainge will look to trade Rondo in a draft day deal, but I imagine he's going to shop both pretty hard.  Pierce may be happy to go to another team to compete for a title in the last couple years of his career after having secured the #2 all-time Celtics scoring record by the end of this season.  That would open up a starting gig for Green and perhaps plenty of backup minutes for a rookie.

We'll get to watch a team that's interesting because we'll want to see what we can get out of the young guys, but ultimately, they'll win less than 30 games and we'll be looking forward to the lottery long before the All-Star break.

[TheRev72]

Never trust Hoopshype.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2012/1/27/2752081/how-much-money-do-we-have-for-free-agents-anyway

Roy - is the option on Bass the only real discrepancy?

I'm just figuring Bass will opt in. He could surely get more on the open market next year but he seems to like it with the Celtics so maybe he stays put in hopes of a bigger payday with the C's in 2013???

[GreenFaith1819]

I like Javale McGee off of the free agent list.

If we can get Jeff Green back healthy, perhaps Pietrus and the rest of the guys on your list, that would be a bonus.

Plus, maybe get this guy in the draft...Meyers Leonard:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LWNpaPEw6o

Unless we acquire some earlier picks, I don't see us getting Drummond or Davis, but I'd be happy with Meyers here.

Just some infusion of youth, but certainly bring back KG and Ray Ray in reduced roles.

[Roy H.]

Never trust Hoopshype.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2012/1/27/2752081/how-much-money-do-we-have-for-free-agents-anyway

Roy - is the option on Bass the only real discrepancy?

I'm just figuring Bass will opt in. He could surely get more on the open market next year but he seems to like it with the Celtics so maybe he stays put in hopes of a bigger payday with the C's in 2013???

Hoopshype just isn't a reliable source, so I try to point folks to other sources.

Also, some of the FAQs explain some of the nuances of the cap.

In terms of Bass, I think he's going to hit the market, personally.  He should be able to do better than $4 million.

[PosImpos]

Never trust Hoopshype.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2012/1/27/2752081/how-much-money-do-we-have-for-free-agents-anyway

Roy - is the option on Bass the only real discrepancy?

I'm just figuring Bass will opt in. He could surely get more on the open market next year but he seems to like it with the Celtics so maybe he stays put in hopes of a bigger payday with the C's in 2013???

Hoopshype just isn't a reliable source, so I try to point folks to other sources.

Also, some of the FAQs explain some of the nuances of the cap.

In terms of Bass, I think he's going to hit the market, personally.  He should be able to do better than $4 million.

I maintain that his market value will be 4 years / $30 million, which would be a good deal for his production, in my opinion.  He may even give the Celtics a "home-town discount" and sign for 4 years / $28 million.

I think the Celtics should sign him as a good experienced presence for the younger players who can start until one of the younger guys develops into a starting role.  We have to spend the money on somebody, so it makes sense to me to spend the money on somebody young, productive, with a good attitude and a stated desire to remain here long term.  He's young enough that  throughout a 4 year deal he should have value as a member of the supporting cast, or as a trade piece.

[Evantime34]

I think we end up signing mcgee or oden to play the five.

I hope and pray we get Patrick Young.

Another possibility if we fill our center spot with a less expensive option we can trade a first and a trade exception for a guy like Josh Smith.

wouldn't be shocked if we renounced ray and kg  and brought them back for cheap.

I might be optimistic but I think avery moore and jjj will continue to develop and we'll be just fine

[celtics2]

Wow KG and Green as suitable starters? Recipe for going sideways for more years. Green may never play again or take a couple seasons to get in NBA shape. He's a long shot. KG will be greeted at the curb with a wheel chair to the locker room to conserve energy. Pierce makes it through this season without a major ailment and we don't know who the center is. Lite a candle for Rondo's health and shooting touch.

I see a 5 year mess of rebuilding to be a competitor assuming we mean another Banner. We have to climb over too many teams. No easy options. Danny's rubbing the shine off of the Genie Lamp but nothing is left.