Speculation: Sign-and-trade for Hughes in the works?

[ssspence]

I don't see any point in signing Stackhouse. He is redundant with Marquis Daniels and Von Wafer already in place.

I want the final wing player to provide a different skill set to what Boston already has.

Agreed. I'd been a proponent of signing him earier in the offseason. I no longer am.

[Chris]

TP. Very intelligent and well thought out post Chris.

Here's the problem with this scenario and why I think if Sheed isn't traded before the start of the season, the C's will just let him retire and take the savings, The amount of money Sheed is paid to hang around has to be counted against the team's cap that he gets traded to.

The trade deadline is mid February. I think NBA players get paid twice monthly starting with one paycheck at the end of October and running through April. That's 13 pay periods, 8 of which are before the trade deadline. That means if Sheed is traded at the deadline he would already have to have been paid $3.87 million already.

With his 15% trade kicker that means that Sheed's contract would have to count as $7.2 million for the team that trades for him and that in the end, if he retires immediately, the team that trades for him is only getting about $3.4 million in salary relief on top of the extra salary they could trade to Boston because of the 125% + $100000 rule. It's some but not nearly as much as they would be able to get from Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto, Atlanta or Phoenix as a trade exception.

Also, not trading him before the season starts for salary relief negates the use of trading the non-guaranteed contracts of Gaffney and LaFayette that could bring the total savings to a team trading the max amount they could for those three contracts to around $10-11 million or so.

Sheed has to go before the season starts.

I am not 100% sure if the money paid to him already this year does count against the other teams cap for luxury tax purposes...but I think you are probably right about that.  So, it certainly does lower his value a bit.  He certainly would always be less valuable than a trade exception, in a trade for a player that fits under one of the trade exceptions out there.

But a few things.

First, you are correct about Gaffney and Laffayette, if they are going to use them to match salaries, it would have to happen before the season.

Second, I think we can ignore the trade kicker.  Sheed has the right to waive any or all of that in order allow a trade to work.  Since he wouldn't get that money anyways in this scenario, and the trade kicker just complicates things, because it only counts for the team recieving it, not for the team trading it, I think it is safe to assume that will be waived before any trade.

You do make a strong argument however, why if they are going to trade him, they should do it now.  Clearly, the value is there right now, and it would make the most sense to pull the trigger before the season.

With that said, I think you are overstating the case by saying he HAS to go before the season.  While I think that may be the ideal situation, I think he still has tremendous value at midseason.  And the key is going to be who is willing to deal right now, versus who is going to be willing to deal at midseason.

I am under the assumption that teams are going to be hessitant to trade good players for savings from this point on this summer.  Most teams are close to set, and they are at the point when they are trying to sell tickets.  If they give up a quality player for little or nothing basketball-wise right now, fans are not going to respond positively.  This will not be the case during the season.  At that point, teams are much more likely to cut salary, and the savings Sheed can bring is much more enticing at that point, even if it may not be the same amount of money they could save right now.

And yes, there will be competition with teams that have trade exceptions...but no more than there is right now.  And I am not sure how much competition that really is.

Let's say the C's want to trade for Shane Battier at the deadline.  Who is going to be their competition?  Cleveland and Toronto are likely going to be fighting for lottery balls, so they probably will not be in the market for a veteran wing on an expiring contract.  Phoenix may be as well, and even if they aren't, they are likely to be looking for Big men, not wings.  Chicago doesn't have any trade exceptions (they got wiped out when they used cap space), and are basically capped out, so they aren't an option.  Atlanta is not in a good spot financially, and also have some decent wings already, and probably won't be adding salary without sending some out.  

So, even if $4 million of Sheed's contract were to go on the teams books (although this wouldn't matter, unless they were in the luxury tax anyways, since that money was already paid by Boston), they would still be saving a lot of money by trading for him, and the C's really won't have a ton of competition in the market.

And finally, everything this summer has pointed to Danny (along with ownership) being dead set on making another run this season.  So, if he cannot pull a deal off before the season, I would be shocked if he would give up on an asset months before he needs to, just to save them a couple million (which they may need to pay in a buyout anyways).

So, in conclusion, yes, if there is a trade to be made now, I think Danny would be ecstatic, but that is by no means the end of the window for trading Sheed's contract, and if they don't want to settle for an inferior player, patience may be a virtue here.

[Chris]

Oh yeah, and it should not cost the C's owners a penny more to trade Sheed now, or trade him in February (other than the difference between Sheed's salary, and the one they take on).  Because if they trade Sheed now, they will be paying an entire season (plus luxury tax) on the new players contract.  If they trade him later, they will be paying Sheed for half a season, and the new player half a season.

The only thing they lose is that player for half a season.  But if that is the price it costs to get a better player, I think it is worth it.

[the_Bird]

Oh yeah, and it should not cost the C's owners a penny more to trade Sheed now, or trade him in February (other than the difference between Sheed's salary, and the one they take on).  Because if they trade Sheed now, they will be paying an entire season (plus luxury tax) on the new players contract.  If they trade him later, they will be paying Sheed for half a season, and the new player half a season.

The only thing they lose is that player for half a season.  But if that is the price it costs to get a better player, I think it is worth it.

What about the idea of trading him to a team like Minnesota, that's under the cap, and letting him retire from there?  Sheed retires with a $3M gold watch (paid for by us), and we've got no more salary (or lux tax) obligation.  He's retired, so he's off Minny's books except (I would assume) for the buyout amount.  They get a second-round pick or two for their help, or maybe 'Sheed's buyout is less than the $3M so they keep a little coin in their pocket.

'Sheed gets one last paycheck, for doing nothing.

Minny gets a draft pick and doesn't kill their cap space (unless they're making a huge trade in February, that extra $2M or $3M is irrelevant)

Boston saves salary, lux tax, and gets a trade exemption to use anytime in the next year (likely to be used at this year's trade deadline, when we know what the team's biggest needs are).

Barring a great trade offer in the next few weeks, doesn't that  make a lot of sense?

[JBone4eva]

I really want us to sign Deshawn Sims and be done for the offseaon. then use sheed before the deadline to address whatever need we have.

[Chris]

What about the idea of trading him to a team like Minnesota, that's under the cap, and letting him retire from there?  Sheed retires with a $3M gold watch (paid for by us), and we've got no more salary (or lux tax) obligation.  He's retired, so he's off Minny's books except (I would assume) for the buyout amount.  They get a second-round pick or two for their help, or maybe 'Sheed's buyout is less than the $3M so they keep a little coin in their pocket.

'Sheed gets one last paycheck, for doing nothing.

Minny gets a draft pick and doesn't kill their cap space (unless they're making a huge trade in February, that extra $2M or $3M is irrelevant)

Boston saves salary, lux tax, and gets a trade exemption to use anytime in the next year (likely to be used at this year's trade deadline, when we know what the team's biggest needs are).

Barring a great trade offer in the next few weeks, doesn't that  make a lot of sense?

Well, I am on the fence about that for two reasons.  

First, I simply don't think its that easy.  I think it will cost them a legit asset to get a team to do it.  And, this team needs as many assets as they can get.  If they want to use the trade exception in February, they are still going to need to include a pick or two to get a good player.  If they send a pick (I think it might take a first rounder to get it done) just to get the trade exception, then they don't have the pieces to make the next move.

The other issue is it takes a lot of very good players out of the picture, since we can't trade for anyone making anything more than the trade exception.  So its not ideal.

[the_Bird]

I really want us to sign Deshawn Sims and be done for the offseaon. then use sheed before the deadline to address whatever need we have.

If you're holding onto 'Sheed, the only way that there's an open roster spot is if you assume either Gody or Semih doesn't make the team.  I'd be shocked if both aren't on the squad (sitting in streetclothes next to Perk) on opening night.