If the Cavs don't win it this year and LeBron returns...

[PLamb]

Could the Cavs be in trouble of retaining LeBron but not being able to build a winner around him for several years to come

Funny thing is, if LeBron doesn't win it this year in Cleveland and returns there, there's no guarantee that front office ever puts together a team good enough to get LeBron his ring before eventually going broke or getting decimated by the new CBA hard cap rules

LeBron could sign long term in Cleveland this off season and doom himself to never winning a ring

LeBron re-signs for big bucks and this Cleveland team is pretty much going to be brought back intact for the next two years after this one
 
They are way over the cap for next year and have no Shaq back

The following year they are at around $60 million in returning salary(I'm including LeBron, of course) but possibly losing the services Leon Powe, Delonte West, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and Sebastian Telfair(though that might be a good thing)

If I'm a Cavs fan and Shaq comes back healthy and the Cavs STILL can't win a title, I have to be very discouraged because without a doubt, given the economic landscape that is the NBA and the situation with the CBA rules, both current and future, there's little Danny Ferry is going to be able to do to make that club appreciably better except through max MLE signings and good draft picks near the very very bottom of the draft

Now consider what happens if the CBA comes in with a hard cap of say $75 million but with similar player movement restriction rules regarding matching salaries if over a soft cap figure of say $55 million

Cleveland might be restricted severely in their ability to make trades until the year 2013-14

Here's a look at their current salary situation

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/cavaliers.jsp


Player                              2009/2010     2010/2011     2011/2012     2012/2013     2013/2014     2014/2015
Shaquille O'Neal        $21,000,000    
LeBron James            $15,779,912   $17,149,243
Antawn Jamison        $11,641,095    $13,358,905   $15,076,715    
Maurice Williams         $8,860,000     $9,300,000      $8,500,000    $8,500,000
Anderson Varejao       $6,363,636      $7,031,818      $7,700,000    $8,368,182    $9,036,364    $9,704,545
Delonte West               $4,254,250     $4,500,000    
Daniel Gibson              $4,088,500    $4,015,334      $4,403,834     $4,792,332    
Jamario Moon              $3,000,000    $3,000,000
Anthony Parker             $2,644,231    $2,855,769
Sebastian Telfair         $2,500,000    $2,700,000
J.J. Hickson                  $1,429,200    $1,528,920      $2,354,537     $3,357,569
Leon Powe                       $855,189       $915,852    
Jawad Williams              $736,420     $1,029,389   
Darnell Jackson              $736,420      $854,389       $1,091,100
Danny Green                    $457,588      $762,195       $1,059,293
Coby Karl *                        $320,560
Cedric Jackson *                $26,917    
Cedric Jackson *                $26,917
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
Total salaries:           $84,720,835    $67,972,425    $38,035,086    $21,660,514    $9,036,364    $9,704,545
Total w/o options      $84,720,835    $47,207,330    $27,180,549    $13,160,514    $9,036,364    $9,704,545


Green = Player Option
Red = Qualifying Offer
Blue = Team Option
Brown = Unguaranteed
Purple = Early Termination Option
* = Not on Roster

[Witch-King]

So what you're saying is that if LeBron stayed in Cleveland after this season he might end up having to carry the franchise on his back if Cleveland is unable to find comparable talent to match up with him.

If you'll remember once "The Diesel" (Shaq) got run out of Los Angeles Kobe Bryant and the Lakers struggled for a few years (after Phil Jackson's third 3 peat), There were years where Kobe demanded to be traded to Chicago, where the Clippers threatened to overthrow the Lakers in the season wins column, there was also that scoring explosion from Kobe (i think he had like 5 or so games in a row where he scored more than 40 points, plus that 81 point thrashing of the Toronto Raptors).

A similar scenario happened with Allen Iverson and the 76ers - in fact A.I. led Kobe in all time scoring until this season when the Lakers met the Grizzlies (A.I. wasn't even able to start in that game) the game when Kobe scored his 24,000th point. Even after being traded back to Philly Allen Iverson's scoring has not been the same - while he was in Detroit his minutes and touches were limited due to the defensive halfcourt style that the Pistons like to play (I'm pretty sure the Pistons set a record for consecutive games holding opponents under 70 ppg the year after they ended the Lakers championship run).

How does this apply to LeBron? Well, put simply the bottom-line in basketball is to score more points than the opposing team, so naturally franchises like to build around players who are adept offensively. However the external factors that hinder the Cavs' shot at winning a ring include the location of the team, the size of their fan base (how much money they can generate from ticket sales/t.v. spots), how much talent they can surround their franchise player with, and the time window with which they have to orchestrate all of this (either due to injuries, expiring contracts, winning franchises continuing to improve, etc...).

If they don't win this year and LeBron stays, well Shaq is getting older by the year, the Celtics will be doing anything within God's power to try and prevent the Lakers from catching up with them in the Championship race, Phil Jackson wants more rings, there are a number of teams outside of the top 5 in NBA power rankings with the talent to win it all if something goes astray with one of the aforementioned teams, etc...

I think I've mentioned this a few times earlier but these factors might be the reason why the same 7 teams have been winning the NBA championship for the past 20+ years (the Miami heat have only won it once). As much as 1 player can turn the tide and overcome the odds (see Jordan era Bulls) there are so many other teams that all have franchise level players who for whatever reason year after year just can't get it done...makes me excited to catch this season's playoffs - will Shaq and a more mature (hopefully) LeBron James be able to get over the proverbial hump in the Celtics and Magic? Will the Lakers have another easy stroll through the West en route to an always very feasable shot at another title? Will the Celtics win Banner 18? It's all up to the players to decide...

[Greenbean]

Yeah they have repeatedly put all their eggs in a small basket. They have acted in desperation at times to put any kind of talent around Lebron even if they are just names on paper versus good fits.

He really is gone IMO if they come up short for the reasons you stated. However, if they had built a team properly, like OKC for example, maybe LeBron would consider staying even if he didnt have a 'ship by next year.

[PLamb]

So what you're saying is that if LeBron stayed in Cleveland after this season he might end up having to carry the franchise on his back if Cleveland is unable to find comparable talent to match up with him.

If you'll remember once "The Diesel" (Shaq) got run out of Los Angeles Kobe Bryant and the Lakers struggled for a few years (after Phil Jackson's third 3 peat), There were years where Kobe demanded to be traded to Chicago, where the Clippers threatened to overthrow the Lakers in the season wins column, there was also that scoring explosion from Kobe (i think he had like 5 or so games in a row where he scored more than 40 points, plus that 81 point thrashing of the Toronto Raptors).

A similar scenario happened with Allen Iverson and the 76ers - in fact A.I. led Kobe in all time scoring until this season when the Lakers met the Grizzlies (A.I. wasn't even able to start in that game) the game when Kobe scored his 24,000th point. Even after being traded back to Philly Allen Iverson's scoring has not been the same - while he was in Detroit his minutes and touches were limited due to the defensive halfcourt style that the Pistons like to play (I'm pretty sure the Pistons set a record for consecutive games holding opponents under 70 ppg the year after they ended the Lakers championship run).

How does this apply to LeBron? Well, put simply the bottom-line in basketball is to score more points than the opposing team, so naturally franchises like to build around players who are adept offensively. However the external factors that hinder the Cavs' shot at winning a ring include the location of the team, the size of their fan base (how much money they can generate from ticket sales/t.v. spots), how much talent they can surround their franchise player with, and the time window with which they have to orchestrate all of this (either due to injuries, expiring contracts, winning franchises continuing to improve, etc...).

If they don't win this year and LeBron stays, well Shaq is getting older by the year, the Celtics will be doing anything in God's power to try and prevent the Lakers from catching up with them in the Championship race, Phil Jackson wants more rings, there are a number of teams outside of the top 5 in NBA power rankings with the talent to win it all if something goes astray with one of the aforementioned teams, etc...

I think I've mentioned this a few times earlier but these factors might be the reason why the same 7 teams have been winning the NBA championship for the past 20+ years (the Miami heat have only won it once). As much as 1 player can turn the tide and overcome the odds (see Jordan era Bulls) there are so many other teams that all have franchise level players who for whatever reason year after year just can't get it done...makes me excited to catch this season's playoffs - will Shaq and a more mature (hopefully) LeBron James be able to get over the proverbial hump in the Celtics and Magic? Will the Lakers have another easy stroll through the West en route to an always very feasable shot at another title? Will the Celtics win Banner 18? It's all up to the players to decide...

Not sure what MOST of that has to do with my topic, but.....okay

[Witch-King]

lol, sorry if I was rambling...I tend to do that sometimes...

[ducksawce]

No Witch-King.  That was fascinating!  I love that sort of stuff...the big-picture speculation.  I ramble on when I get worked up making posts.

That's a good analysis of "franchise" players.  It's easy to forget that there are many who are brilliant in their own rights, but can't win championships.  Even Kobe suffered for several years between 2002 and 2009!  Our Big 3 are of course another obvious set of examples as well.

[Who]

If the Cavs superstar was anyone other than LeBron James they'd be in trouble ...

If it was Dwyane Wade. Kobe Bryant. Carmelo Anthony. Chris Paul. Kevin Durant.

... but it's not someone other than LeBron and as a result they aren't in any trouble. He is that good and that much better than the rest of the pack.

[Donoghus]

Even if they don't win the title this year, they're still going to go into next season as one of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference.  As Who just mentioned, Lebron is that good.

Even with the salary cap restraints they'll be facing, they have the talent to be a contender for the next few years.  I know there's this big free agent class on the horizon, but how many realistic moves would lead to a huge climactic shifting of the guard in the East in the next 2-3 years?  Chicago could become real contenders down the road but they'll still be question marks then.  New York could land two studs but who will they have around them?  Who else?  Who is looming as the next big thing in the East?  Atlanta?  What if they lose Johnson?

See what I'm saying?

[PLamb]

I see what you are saying Dons but this is, IMHO, the deepest and best collection of talent that Ferry has surrounded LeBron with and yet, they are no clear cut favorite to win it all

They are a very flawed team and if they don't win this year, they might only get worse as players leave the team and the Cav are restricted in adding to the team because of a myriad of reasons, which I have gone over already

Lebron is good, real good but given how good OKC is with a more complete team with young talent to grow in many positions and cap space to add, the Lakers are, Chicago could get with the addition of Wade or Johnson, Portland could get with a healthy Oden and Przybilla returning

I see what you are saying but if the Cavs can't win it this year in probably the year they are most loaded, they may not get another chance to win it because they may only get worse no matter how good LeBron is

[Donoghus]

I see what you are saying Dons but this is, IMHO, the deepest and best collection of talent that Ferry has surrounded LeBron with and yet, they are no clear cut favorite to win it all

They are a very flawed team and if they don't win this year, they might only get worse as players leave the team and the Cav are restricted in adding to the team because of a myriad of reasons, which I have gone over already

Lebron is good, real good but given how good OKC is with a more complete team with young talent to grow in many positions and cap space to add, the Lakers are, Chicago could get with the addition of Wade or Johnson, Portland could get with a healthy Oden and Przybilla returning

I see what you are saying but if the Cavs can't win it this year in probably the year they are most loaded, they may not get another chance to win it because they may only get worse no matter how good LeBron is

I wouldn't be terribly concerned about the Portlands, Los Angeles', and Oklahoma Citys of the world for the time being.  They're all in the West and they'd only have to face one of them in the NBA Finals and twice a year in the regular season.

In the scenario of Lebron returning to Cleveland, there are only a few teams in the East that can truly better themselves but the dominoes have to fall their way and there is no sure thing. Like I said before I don't see the complexion of the East changing overnight.  Barring injuries or sudden aging syndrome, the Cavs will be near the top next season and quite possibly in '11-12.  Chicago, Atlanta, New York, and Miami may all improve with a max guy or two but, in my eyes, they'll remain question marks no matter what combos go where.  I don't think it'll be enough to knock Cleveland from the upper tier of teams.


Realistically, we're talking about a three year window here with the Cavs and these real cap concerns.  I think there is enough talent there to maintain being a contender for next year and the year after.  In Year Three, you have an attractive expiring in Jamison.  By then, he may be a corpse but an attractive one at that. 

This may very well be Cleveland's best year to win it all but I don't see the door slamming or the road becoming substantially more difficult if they don't win it but still have Lebron and talent back for the next two years. 

[2short]

I think a big thing is center posistion for them.  Z is gone, Shaq next year I think will hurt the team more than help (if he isn't already doing that)
danny ferry will need to move some useless players for a c who can hit the jumper and stay out of the lane
I think they have Lebron who is great and a little more than a supporting cast so if they don't win...wonder what mr ego will do, ny/chicago/etc etc

[PosImpos]

What on Earth makes you think that LeBron would return to Cleveland if they don't win it all this year - unless, perhaps, they get to the Finals and lose in 6 or 7 games?

[Moranis]

I think the Cavs will re-sign Z and probably Shaq, but if not there are center options out there for MLE or less type money.  Brad Miller, Memo Okur, Jermaine O'Neal, Darko, and a few others.  Certainly not great players, but all would certainly fill a need on the Cavs.   I'm sure they could make a trade for Biedrins and guys like that from teams that are looking to save cash. 

If Lebron re-signs the Cavs will be near the top of the East if Jamison, Williams, and West are healthy and Hickson continues to develop.