The real question is, if Paul and KG are healthier (December healthy, not 2008 healthy) and we have a cohesive lineup for a reasonable amount of time, will we go back to the way we were playing before the injuries hit?
This is the question that I have for the so-called "realists" among Celtic fans. Through the first third of the season, the Celtics were 22 - 5 with the best score differential in the league.
In the 23 games since then, Garnett has missed 11 outright and played most others visibly hobbled. Pierce has missed 7 outright and played several others visibly slowed. And several other rotation players have also missed time. In that stretch the team has gone 10 - 13.
According to the "realists", the last 23 games are more reflective of this team than the first 27. It is declared impossible that we can beat the Hawks or other good teams, and the team should be blown up.
So again, the question is: which team is more realistically who we are? And if you think it's the most recent 23 games, is it because you think Pierce and KG can never be December-of-09 healthy again? Or you just think it's realistic that the team suddenly forgot how to play, regardless of team health?
If you look at the 22-5 start, the team also played its softest stretch, and the #30 schedule in the league (from a points perspective). The defense then was more or less the same as it is now. We have slipped a little bit, but really we have been basically tied for #1 most of the season with a few other teams.
The offense has gone in the toilet. 7 weeks ago, the team was still #4 in the league on offense, while since it has taken a swan dive to #14. This has coincided with an increase in the level of opponents - a trip out West, finishing the series with the Hawks, a couple of losses to the Magic.
As mentioned in a previous post - the offense has basically fallen because of poor three point shooting and poor offensive rebounding. Are those fixable? Can we EXPECT Ray Allen to come back to his normal level - both in terms of percentage and volume? Can we expect House to return to last year's level? Pierce has been excellent from 3 - but he does not take a ton of them, certainly not enough to offset Allen's sharp decline in production. Rasheed is not a great 3pt shooter historically, but he is not THIS BAD either. Will that perk up?
Is this a permanent condition - I don't know ... but that is the problem.
I don't know that it was really our softest stretch. I think that at least 1/2 of the first 28 games were against current playoff teams with games vs Atlanta, Phoenix, Orlando twice, Cleveland and Utah. Also, you were comparing our offense to the '08 offense. Our offensive rebounding is down ~1.5 a game since new years but our 3 point shooting is holding steady and we're down about 5 points a game. Our turnovers are up quite a bit over that timeframe, and a lot of that could be from a lack of a cohesive lineup.
We played some playoff teams - but the Jazz had not come around, the Hornets were in the process of quitting on Byron Scott. The Cavaliers clearly had not hit their stride. Good teams' SOS will always be hurt since they don't get to play themselves - so no matter.
Last year we were 39.7% as a TEAM from way downtown, this year 34.7%. Same number of makes on nearly 2 fewer attempts ... also more specifically looking at Ray's production from 3, and Eddie's too, why not ... reveals the genesis of the problem:
Last year: 538 for 1355 ... Ray 199 for 486, Eddie 151 for 340
So Ray shot 40.9%, Eddie shot 44.4%, they combined for 61.0% of our attempts ... everyone else shot 188 for 529 = 35.5%, basically the league median
This year (50 games): 312 for 900 ... Ray 81 for 240, Eddie 60 for 161
So Ray 33.8%, Eddie 37.3%, combining for 44.6% of our attempts ... everyone else 171 for 499 = 34.3% (and that INCLUDES Pierce) below the league median
Ray is shooting poorly - but he is also shooting a lot LESS (from 6.2 attempts to 4.8 attempts a game) ... Eddie is shooting less, but 37.3% is above the league average at least ... but his attempts are down a bit (4.2 to 3.3)
Heck, let's add Paul's attempts to this - since he is shooting well ...
in 2009, Paul was 119 for 304 = 39.1% ... this year 78 for 174, 44.8%
So the 2009 summary:
Celtics: 538 for 1355 = 39.7%
Ray-Eddie-Paul: 469 for 1130 = 41.5%
Attempted 83.4% of team's total three point attempts
The 2010 summary
Celtics: 312 for 900 = 34.7%
Ray-Eddie-Paul: 219 for 575 = 38.1%
Attempted 63.9% of the teams total three point attempts
The team's three point shooting has dipped because of Ray and Eddie as pointed out earlier. However, look at the 19.5% DROP in the percentage of three pointers taken by the "right guys". Ray and Eddie have not been as good as a year ago - Ray in particular has lost confidence in the shot ... the upshot is that the wrong guys are shooting too many three pointers - Ray is not giving himself a chance to shoot himself out of it ... and historically shooting ability is a skill that does not grow old.
If the team started getting their best three point shooters to shoot more of the team's three pointers ... perhaps the problem solves itself. I worry about the permanence of Ray's problems - because it has not felt like a glitch. But the track record DOES indicate that he needs to not be gun shy - and while it feels like he's a good teammate by not taking shots he has not made so far - he might benefit by shooting more.
Fantastic series of posts from you SK. Your diagnosis of the C's problems is the most clearly articulated and compelling one I've seen yet.
Ray and Eddie's shooting last year was so good that our offense grew to rely on it as a primary weapon. I think this added momentum to the Sheed signing as well: we'd seen what kind of weapon the 3-ball had been for us and we added to our long-range bombing arsenal.
Unfortunately I don't see last year's shooting levels returning anytime soon. Ray's shooting struggles certainly seem to be the result of age (the recent article detailing his plunging %s in 4th quarters and back-to-backs pushed me to that conclusion) as do Sheed's (the majority of his attempts have been wide open IMHO). I could definitely see House heating up again (he is after all, the most accurate of the bunch this year), but definitely not to the level we saw last year. Unfortunately House is the most positionally inflexible of the 3 and thus the least capable of expanding his role as he improves his efficiency.
I think the Celtics have to make a trade to diversify their offense. Get someone who can score in the post effectively, someone who can drive the ball effectively, or someone who can beast the offensive boards and give our shooters more chances.
Topic: Despite the struggles, who is still confident? A much needed All-Star break (Read 9658 times)