Should we expect a Paul Pierce opt out

[PLamb]

I'm going to fore go my usual writing form for this

Should we expect a Paul Pierce opt out on his contract this summer? Some are going to say that Pierce would be crazy to do such a thing as his probable value on the market, especially for a re-sign with the Celtics, isn't going to start him at $21+ million. Still other theorize that he will do it to take a deep pay cut to assist the Celtics in signing others so that their "window" will remain open.

Let's just say that Chris, a moderator here at Celticsblog had a much involved and perfectly on point article discussing the latter point I made already and it can be found here:

http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/2/3/1290758/gary-tanguays-misguided-plan

The idea that Pierce would opt out of his contract, be renounced, then sign a veteran minimum contract to play here so that the Celtics would have a few million more than the MLE in cap space is laughable, and in my opinion, as likely of happening as aliens are of revealing their existence at the half time of the Superbowl today. That is really the only way the Celtics get Pierce to opt out to "help them" in getting better players.

But, would he opt out to help himself? Would opting out, resigning a contract now under the current CBA guidelines benefit him?

Consider this, if Pierce does not opt out and takes his $21+ million next year his contract will end and he will be a free agent. Except that is the very year there will be a work stoppage and the stoppage could be significant. The owners are already asking for a 12% cut in the Basketball Related Income to be cut from the players, shorter maximum contracts, easier language to void contracts, a hard cap and a bunch more stuff to come that the players are going to laugh at. Why are they going to laugh at those, because they have already proposed just signing a renewal of the current collective bargaining agreement. To say the two sides are close is a gigantic understatement.

Could a season ending lockout ala the NHL be in the offering for the NBA? I wouldn't rule it out.

So how does that effect the Captain, The Truth, one Paul Pierce? Well, after next season when that last year of his contract is up, Pierce will be 33 years old and it will be June 2011 and he will be a full fledged free agent for the first time in his career. And then the lockout hammer will fall and he may not be signing a contract with a team until possibly, if the lockout is one full season, until the summer of 2012 when he will about to become 35 years old after taking a full year off from basketball. Who the hell in their right mind is going to be signing THAT Paul Pierce for anything longer than a one year, prove it to me contract for a few million dollars?

Answer........nobody. We have seen what a year off from NBA play does to Stephan Marbury. What would it do to a player that isn't a top, top level athlete at 35 years old? I think we all know the answer to that. yes, this is a worst case scenario but it could also be a highly likely scenario. And even if it isn't, a long lockout that lasts into 2012 before signings and the season starts is still the most likely scenario which still doesn't paint a very rosy contract future for Paul Pierce.

So if Pierce has a more than competent agent this is what we should probably expect, Pierce opts out, he signs a four year deal for $40 million dollars at a decelerating rate of dollars per year, something like $15 million/$12 million/$8 million/$5 million fully expecting to see little of the $12 million because of the lockout. If the 2011-201- season is lost to history Pierce still has $13 million in guaranteed money coming to him after the lockout and a total of $%28 million coming his way rather than $21 million and maybe a prove it to me contract for peanuts after the lockout. If there is no lockout, $40 million for 4 years is still very close to what he would have gotten if he doesn't opt out and signs an extension during that off season.

Either way, Pierce does not lose out and may very well make money in the deal and the Celtics get some relief next year which might make signing Ray Allen palatable as well as spending the full MLE on one or two players that will help this team remain a contender through next year.

[pearljammer10]

A topic that Im surprised hasnt been brought up more often... Pierce opting out.

The Pro's for him: He realizes that the big 3's window is gone. No longer can he carry the team and it adds his name to make the biggest free agency crop in the history of the nba even bigger. Maybe he becomes fed up with how the season ends, Ray Allen's gone, KG isnt the same, Rondo wants to take control of the team, and he just up and walks...

I just dont see it though. I think, and hope, he will be a Celtic for life. Its just something that should happen, ya know?

[jambr380]

If he doesn't opt out, then there is a decent probability that he gets traded to a mediocre team and he will be a FA after that, where he likely won't return to the Celtics. By opting out, he sets himself up to retire as a Celtic. It really depends on what is most important to him. 21+ million dollars is a lot of money and players can talk about how money isn't important and it's the welness of the team that really matters. But when put on the spot, is someone really going to take a 11 million dollar paycut? That is basically the amount of the second year of your proposed 4 year/40 mill contract. I don't think Paul would have problem getting a 2 year/10mill contract in the worst case scenario of a lockout lasting a full year.

[wdleehi]

No.  I don't see it happening.



I think the union is going to tell their guys with big contracts and an opt out not to.  They want as much money on the books going into this next fight.  

[PLamb]

If he doesn't opt out, then there is a decent probability that he gets traded to a mediocre team and he will be a FA after that, where he likely won't return to the Celtics. By opting out, he sets himself up to retire as a Celtic. It really depends on what is most important to him. 21+ million dollars is a lot of money and players can talk about how money is important and it's the welness of the team that really matters. But when put on the spot, is someone really going to take a 11 million dollar paycut? That is basically the amount of the second year of your proposed 4 year/40 mill contract. I don't think Paul would have problem getting a 2 year/10mill contract in the worst case scenario of a lockout lasting a full year.

He would be taking a $6 million paycut $21 million to $15 million

Once the Finals end in 2011 and he becomes a free agent, he can't sign until the signing period begins after the lockout

The $12 million is the part that would be in jeopardy in my scenario

If he misses the whole year due to the lockout he misses the $12 million but if he is a free agent, he loses that years money anyway

But after returning he would have $13 million guaranteed to him instead of having to come back and sign a contract that might make him a whole lot less than that given his age

[snively]

If he doesn't opt out, then there is a decent probability that he gets traded to a mediocre team and he will be a FA after that, where he likely won't return to the Celtics. By opting out, he sets himself up to retire as a Celtic. It really depends on what is most important to him. 21+ million dollars is a lot of money and players can talk about how money is important and it's the welness of the team that really matters. But when put on the spot, is someone really going to take a 11 million dollar paycut? That is basically the amount of the second year of your proposed 4 year/40 mill contract. I don't think Paul would have problem getting a 2 year/10mill contract in the worst case scenario of a lockout lasting a full year.

It's not really a paycut if your options are $21 mil this year and the MLE after that.  4 years/40-50 mil would probably be a net pay increase for Paul.

I sure hope he opts out and resigns for cheaper/longer.  I want him to retire with the C's and I want ownership to have as much financial flexibility as possible to make the necessary additions to improve the team going forward.

[PosImpos]

The idea that Pierce would opt out of his contract, be renounced, then sign a veteran minimum contract to play here so that the Celtics would have a few million more than the MLE in cap space is laughable, and in my opinion, as likely of happening as aliens are of revealing their existence at the half time of the Superbowl today.

How freaking psyched are you gonna be if aliens actually reveal their existence at the half time of the Superbowl today?

An added bonus: Peyton Manning turns out to be one of them.

[rondohondo]

The idea that Pierce would opt out of his contract, be renounced, then sign a veteran minimum contract to play here so that the Celtics would have a few million more than the MLE in cap space is laughable, and in my opinion, as likely of happening as aliens are of revealing their existence at the half time of the Superbowl today.

How freaking psyched are you gonna be if aliens actually reveal their existence at the half time of the Superbowl today?

An added bonus: Peyton Manning turns out to be one of them.

So that's why Peyton Manning always has that purple mark on his fore head..........

[More Banners]

If he doesn't opt out, then there is a decent probability that he gets traded to a mediocre team and he will be a FA after that, where he likely won't return to the Celtics. By opting out, he sets himself up to retire as a Celtic. It really depends on what is most important to him. 21+ million dollars is a lot of money and players can talk about how money is important and it's the welness of the team that really matters. But when put on the spot, is someone really going to take a 11 million dollar paycut? That is basically the amount of the second year of your proposed 4 year/40 mill contract. I don't think Paul would have problem getting a 2 year/10mill contract in the worst case scenario of a lockout lasting a full year.

It's not really a paycut if your options are $21 mil this year and the MLE after that.  4 years/40-50 mil would probably be a net pay increase for Paul.

I sure hope he opts out and resigns for cheaper/longer.  I want him to retire with the C's and I want ownership to have as much financial flexibility as possible to make the necessary additions to improve the team going forward.

This is going to be tough...  Let's assume the 4 yr/40-50 mil number is fair value for Paul at this point in his career:

Does he take that money to retire a Celtic, which he would love to do, OR...

Does he take that money for the best chance to win a championship (and more take home pay) by going to Miami or elsewhere to play with someone like Wade?

He loves two things, the C's and winning titles.  Let's hope he doesn't have to choose.