Bucks vs Cavaliers (12.06.09)

[Kiorrik]

i'll reiterate what I said in the other Jennings thread.

I really feel bad for Bucks fans.  They were on top of the world.  They were all convinced they had the next great NBA superstar.   

Then they go and drop 7 of 8... fall under .500... and Jennings turns out to be a shorter version of Russell Westbrook.   Still a nice player, but I bet there are a lot of people who want to return those season tickets.

You shouldn't. They used the 10th pick to draft a 19 years old PG who's having one of the best rookie seasons for a PG in the last decade and has a great work ethic. Feel bad for the Knicks fans or for the Grizzlies fans or whatever.

The Nets! The Nets! Feel bad for the Nets!

[LarBrd33]

Meh I'm not a fan of the NBA's "efficiency" stat. I do agree that it'll predict hype.

What's wrong with the efficiency stat?  Seems pretty simple to me.  Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks ... subtract turnovers and missed shots.   

[Fafnir]

Meh I'm not a fan of the NBA's "efficiency" stat. I do agree that it'll predict hype.

What's wrong with the efficiency stat?  Seems pretty simple to me.  Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks ... subtract turnovers and missed shots.   

It is pretty simple, but I'm not a fan of how it weights scoring. Specifically it doesn't account for free throws taken, also its not adjusted for minutes or pace.

So its essentially PER minus a few features, I'm not a fan of either statistic.

[Rondo_is_better]

i'll reiterate what I said in the other Jennings thread.

I really feel bad for Bucks fans.  They were on top of the world.  They were all convinced they had the next great NBA superstar.   

Then they go and drop 7 of 8... fall under .500... and Jennings turns out to be a shorter version of Russell Westbrook.   Still a nice player, but I bet there are a lot of people who want to return those season tickets.

Just because he doesn't play at a superstar level every night of his rookie year doesn't mean he wont' be one. I bet no one wants to return their season tickets, cuz they wanna be there when he drops 55 again.

[LarBrd33]

Meh I'm not a fan of the NBA's "efficiency" stat. I do agree that it'll predict hype.

What's wrong with the efficiency stat?  Seems pretty simple to me.  Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks ... subtract turnovers and missed shots.   

It is pretty simple, but I'm not a fan of how it weights scoring. Specifically it doesn't account for free throws taken, also its not adjusted for minutes or pace.

So its essentially PER minus a few features, I'm not a fan of either statistic.

It accounts for missed free throws though.   I think PER has some funky calculations.   Efficiency stat is very simplistic... you add up points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks... you subtract missed shots, missed free throws and turnovers.   I've always liked it.  Naturally, LeBron James dominates... but back in the day KG was always #1.   It just makes sense to me...   

you look at the current leaders right now: 

http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Efficiency.jsp?league=00&season=22009&conf=OVERALL&position=0&splitType=9&splitScope=GAME&qualified=N&yearsExp=-1&splitDD=All%20Teams 

Hard to debate that there is anything wrong with the order there when you factor in field goal percentage.  I think in general when it comes to statistics... the guy with the most points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks without missing shots is going to be considered the best statistical performer, right?  That's all efficiency calculates. 

I guess some things like "PER" factor in +/- and give extra credit for three pointers and stuff, but if efficiency was good enough for Larry Bird, it's good enough for me.

[Fafnir]

PER basically correlates to efficiency 1 to 1, efficiency just doesn't factor in minutes played.

This excerpt from Dave Berri's book explains why I'm not huge on efficiency.

Whether a player makes or misses a shot, a resource is used when a shot attempt is taken. According to the NBA’s method, though, the cost of the shot attempt is not imposed if the shot goes in.

To put it in simple terms to increase your NBA efficiency you need only shoot 33% eFG. So a player can throw up 30 shots at 33% eFG and still increase his "efficiency"! So chuckers come out too far ahead in efficiency, even efficient ones end up overated.

Good players will still be at the top of the list, but so will rather inefficient ones. Like PER its not a terrible thing to glance at, but I don't like using it when we are just comparing two players and can get much more in depth with them.

[MMacOH]

As Celtics fans you really shouldn't like anyone on the Cavs.  But you should probably respect a lot of them. 

I hate the Celtics, hate their players, but I respect most if not all of them.  I really hate Sheed, but I respect his game and I would probably love him if he were on the Cavs

[BballTim]

As Celtics fans you really shouldn't like anyone on the Cavs.  But you should probably respect a lot of them. 

I hate the Celtics, hate their players, but I respect most if not all of them.  I really hate Sheed, but I respect his game and I would probably love him if he were on the Cavs

  Except for those games when he's 2-8 on threes...

[Fafnir]

As Celtics fans you really shouldn't like anyone on the Cavs.  But you should probably respect a lot of them. 

I hate the Celtics, hate their players, but I respect most if not all of them.  I really hate Sheed, but I respect his game and I would probably love him if he were on the Cavs

  Except for those games when he's 2-8 on threes...

2-8 isn't all that awful on 3 point attempts. Its the 0fers that bother me.

[Rondo_is_better]

As Celtics fans you really shouldn't like anyone on the Cavs.  But you should probably respect a lot of them. 

I hate the Celtics, hate their players, but I respect most if not all of them.  I really hate Sheed, but I respect his game and I would probably love him if he were on the Cavs

  Except for those games when he's 2-8 on threes...

2-8 isn't all that awful on 3 point attempts. Its the 0fers that bother me.

Haha frankly I'd take 2 of 8.

[scoop]

All linear weight boxscore based rating metrics are very faulty - be it Eff, PER, WPs or whatever. I have no idea why are they called "advanced stats", they're boxscore compilations. It's like calling a 2 pages digest of the Moby Dick an "advanced version of Moby Dick".

NBA efficiency is particularly rudimentary, but I'm not sure if that's an advantage or a disadvantage. In any case, they're all pretty useless.

[LarBrd33]

i'll reiterate what I said in the other Jennings thread.

I really feel bad for Bucks fans.  They were on top of the world.  They were all convinced they had the next great NBA superstar.   

Then they go and drop 7 of 8... fall under .500... and Jennings turns out to be a shorter version of Russell Westbrook.   Still a nice player, but I bet there are a lot of people who want to return those season tickets.

Jennings still doesn't turn it over quite like Westbrook thus far at least, that's how Westbrook consistently kills the thunder. Turns it over like he wants to be Monta Ellis...

They have about the same assist/turnover ratio. 

Jennings is actually having a nice bounce-back game right now.  9-22 is pretty solid.  41% shooting looks awfully nice after shooting 30% over the last 7 games.

They have about the same ratio, but Westbrook turns it over a good deal more. TOV% 12.7 TOV% 17.8

Considering their teams offensive talent, and how many more shot attempts Jennings is taking I think that he's a notch lower than Westbrook on the "killing your teams with turnovers" ranking.

He'll kill them with bad shots, but we already knew that he couldn't stay so hot forever.

Has anyone noticed that Tyreke Evans is actually outperforming Jennings this season?   At some point during Jenning's dismal play, Evans actually leapfrogged him statistically.  His team has a better record, too.   Methinks it's time to end the Jennings hype and start talking about Evans.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=TnSMG

Pretty close overall, though if Jennings doesn't come out of his slump Evans will pull ahead in overall production.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Efficiency.jsp?league=00&season=22009&conf=OVERALL&position=0&splitType=9&splitScope=GAME&qualified=N&yearsExp=0&splitDD=All%20Teams

Well the teams have the same record, basically... I'm assuming the Kings will lose to the Heat tonight.  

Evans is just slightly ahead of Jennings in efficiency.   We'll see how he does tonight.  I'm gonna say Evans is the frontrunner for ROY (Jennings numbers are going to sink once his coach tells him to stop jacking up shots... I'm expected a few 8-12 point games soon) ...  

...Until Blake Griffin shows up, at least.

Well seems I was right once again.  His last two games he scored 7 points and 10 points.  That's what happens when your coach is sick of you jacking up 20+ shots nightly with 36% shooting...

Even I'm a little surprised by how poorly he's played.  I mean... to be considered "streaky" he at least has to have some hot streaks, right?  In his last 17 games he's shot well in basically 1 game... and 8-14 performance against the Raptors that the Bucks won.  Aside from that he's consistently been shooting under 40%.   36% in December.

I continue to feel bad for Bucks fans.  They went from thinking they had a franchise superstar and a surprisingly good team... to having a struggling rookie and a team that is as bad as everyone initially believed.

[Fafnir]

Evans has shown he's a rookie too at times. Way to early to say much on either, personally I haven't watched more than a few games of each so I can't comment between them. Evan seems to play like a 2 when I've watched him though.

Jennings shooting certainly fell back to earth. Not surprising as all the scouts said his shot was a problem.