Has Rondo's jump shooting improved? The early answer is in...

[nickagneta]

If Rondo is shooting far enough below 30% on floaters to bring his entire average down, he shouldn't be taking those shots anymore.  A shot that you hit 1 out of every 3 times should be taken out of your repertoire.

However, having watched Rondo play, I know he converts his floaters more than roughly a third of the time.  Therefore, they're not the things bringing his average down to the sub-40% range.

This year, maybe but last year, I'm not so sure. He was awful on those floaters for a very long part of the season.

But in reality, I like the NBA Hot SPots better as an indicator of how Rondo is shooting because given their areas of statistical gathering, I want to pay attention to just his outside, outside shots because those are going to be the shots that make or break Rondo.

Who cares what Rondo is doing on floaters, I'm not worried about those number so remove them from the equation and use the Hot Shot spots that are obviously outside shots. You know, the type of shots that other teams are going to GIVE Rondo and the type of shots they are going to DARE Rondo to take.

So for me, I'll wait until the NBA starts giving out those stats for Hot Spots and compare them to last year to see what type of difference Rondo's work on his jumper has produced.

Again, I think his form and mindset is much better and because of that I expect better things but I want to see him take more shoys before making a decision.

[Bahku]

While I definitely agree that having a shot that goes down only one out of three times is not acceptable, I don't think it's an indication to discontinue that shot, but rather an indication that it needs more work to bring that stat up. If everyone stopped taking shots that were only in the 33% range, then no one would ever take any threes. In order for Rondo to be the best point guard he can be, he needs to improve his shooting percentage, not remove the weak ones from his repertoire. The only way he's going to do that is to keep shooting and keep working on it until it gets to a respectable level. He has the talent and ability to be a good jump-shooter, but it's only going to come with more work and practice.

[nickagneta]

And as much as Rondo's eFG% for jump shots on 82games.com isn't good, it's not, Rondo's TOTAL eFG% of .594 is the 7th highest amongst ALL guards in the league and he has the 2nd highest actual FG% in the league.

Rondo is a type of PG that can be tremendously effective without being a stellar outside shooter. He does need to improve that part of his game as well as his FT shooting, no doubt about. But he doesn't have to be a great outside shooter, for what the C's need out of their PG, for the team to be wildly successful or champions.

[BballTim]

If Rondo is shooting far enough below 30% on floaters to bring his entire average down, he shouldn't be taking those shots anymore.  A shot that you hit 1 out of every 3 times should be taken out of your repertoire.

However, having watched Rondo play, I know he converts his floaters more than roughly a third of the time.  Therefore, they're not the things bringing his average down to the sub-40% range.

  The thing is, as respected as 82games is, nobody really knows their criteria for shot classification. It could be floaters. It could be put-backs. It could be any type of shot within 5-6 feet of the hoop.

  Last year, according to 82games, Rondo took 57% of his shots from the inside (which is 433 shots) and hit 62% of them. According to nba hotspots he took 497 shots from their innermost circle and hit 57% of them. So it's 269 for 433 on 82games and 283 for 497 from nba hotspots. So he's 14 for 67 (21%) on the difference. Conversely, his "non-inside" efg% from 82games is .375, but for nba hotspots it's 41%.

  That extra .035% would put him, on your 82games website, near the bottom 40% instead of near the bottom 10%. The difference is significant, as it's (as I've been saying) the difference between abysmal not that far below average. I don't want to bore you (too late, no doubt) but there are other ways using data from other websites to show similar results. And, again, this type of difference will affect Rondo much more than players who take a much smaller percentage of their shots from the inside.

  But the important thing is when you talk about Rondo having an extremely low efg% that's based on which of his shots from around the basket are called jumpshots by which website. It's not truly based on, for example, his shooting from the outside.

[Brickowski]

The problem isn't his jump shot.  It's his foul shooting

[hwangjini_1]

The problem isn't his jump shot.  It's his foul shooting

actually... it seems to be both. the debaters here seem to revolve NOT on whether rondo is a good shooter, because he is not.

rather, they seem to be more about how much his poor shooting diminishes his game and ability to help the celtics.

the poor shooting is a problem and does limit rondo. yet, he is so skilled as a pg that he often over comes the shooting problem.

but, it also appears to me that any player would want to overcome such a glaring and significant problem. i dont know if he can, quite honestly.some guards just cant shoot.

nonetheless, imagine a rondo who can shoot at least very close to league average for jumpshoots for guards. the celtics would be must better as a team.

so, to shift the thread a bit. instead of stats - we know rondo cant shoot well - could some folks here critique or debate what source of his problems may be?

last year, i noticed he corrected his form a bit. less out of control, leaning to the side shots that never had a repeated form. he did square up more, gain consistency.

not having seen him this year, what is his shooting form like?

[LB3533]

We need a reference to compare Rondo's jump shooting.

If we compare Rondo's jump shot to this point last year, then yes it has improved, but you could have said that about game 68 last year too.

Early last season, Rondo's jumper wasn't good, but slowly got better.

I'd say his jumper right now is exactly where it was by the end of last season, so the work he's done over the summer hasn't improved his jumper, but in the long run it might improve it drastically.

[BballTim]

82games.com just released their first detailed stats of the year, which includes one of my favorite stats, eFG% on jump shots.

To answer the question raised in the thread title, no, Rondo's shooting has not improved, at least in terms of efficiency:

2008-09:  43% of Rondo's shots were jumpers; .375eFG%

2009-10:  50% of Rondo's shots are jumpers; .379eFG%

In other words, his efficiency on jumpers through 8 games is virtually identical to last season.  Other interesting stats?  Rondo is finishing an amazing 75.9% of his inside shots this year, meaning he's getting a lot of open layups.  Only 18% of his jump shots has been assisted, suggesting that he's taking a lot of pull-up shots (rather than set shots).

  Not for nothing, but 82games updated his numbers during today's debate. His efg% went up from .379 to .394. We can rest easy, at least until the first quarter of the next game.

[winsomme]

First, 82games.com is probably the most respected statistical site that covers the NBA.com, so I tend to trust their numbers.

However, even if their methodology is flawed, it's flawed uniformly.  It's not like they count one type of shot for one team, but don't count it for another.  Thus, the comparison of Rondo to his peers still stands.

Third, I don't think floaters account for the difference, unless you're saying that Rondo misses 2/3 of his floaters.

Lastly, how do we explain away Rondo's terrible free throw shooting?  Is that a statistical manipulation, as well?

The fact remains:  Rondo isn't a very good shooter, and hasn't improved much (if at all) in that area.  Maybe he'll improve as the season goes on, but that's certainly not a given.  Indeed, he actually regressed from two years ago to last year, so the improvement hasn't been linear.

the methodology is only "flawed uniformly" if the shots in question are taken at the same rate by players across the league.....

[winsomme]

The problem isn't his jump shot.  It's his foul shooting

I'm definitely more focused on his FT shooting as well....

[Fafnir]

Still to early given the small sample size.

Is Ray Allen a 35% 3-point shooter? Similar sample size.

Though judging by what I've seen I don't expect him to make a leap.

[vinnie]

Other than Sherman Douglas, I can't remember many point guard missing five straight free throws over 2 games. The guy cannot shoot free throws and as was pointed out in another thread was not that much better than guys like Shaq last year. If a point guard cannot make free throws, that is a problem.

[Vermont Green]

I can't believe that there was such a long debate about whether Rondo is a bad shooter or not, especially on this site where the participants are knowledgeable.  Rondo has a shooting problem.  That is why all teams now play 6 feet off him and dare him to shoot.  This is not news and if there are stats out there that say that he is an average PG shooter, I for one am not going to believe them.

Question 2 is whether RR can be a top PG if he continues to shoot no better than the current.  I say no, he can be a good PG but not a top (read $11M) PG.

The last thing is the foul shooting and yes, this is important and if it doesn't improve, he is going to be on the bench in the 4th quarter of games.  I think the FT problems are mental in terms of going 0-5.  RR is pressing because his FG outside shooting is so bad and it is carrying over and messing with his head when he is on the line.  Even when confident, he is still below what he needs to be.  Maybe he should consult Rick Barry.

I don't know whether he is going to figure this out or not.  So far this year, I don't sense any improvement based on what I have seen on the court.  Teams are playing off him even more than last year and he is still missing.  82games.com doesn't have a stat for eFG% when teams are daring you to shoot.  If they did, RR would be down there with Ben Wallace.

[Brickowski]

A pg can decide whether or not to shoot jump shots.  But the pg, who has the ball in his hands at the end of close games, has to make his free throws.

[Chief]

I don't expect anyone, who made some major mechanic changes to their shot, to shoot well at the beginning of the season. The form looks better and I am confident that by the end of the season Rondo's % will continue to get higher.