Celtics making new offer to Rondo TODAY (Per Ordway, WEEI)

[EJPLAYA]

If teams continue to committ to paying guys 60+ million dollars it won't be too much longer before they have destroyed the league. The salary cap needs to be adjusted downward dramatically to keep fans coming to the arenas and buying their merchandise. As unemployment rises and families tighten their belts it is going to be real hard justifying season tickets vs. NBA League Pass or NBA League Pass vs. watching it online or even through Gamecast. The players are killing the golden goose and unfortunately the golden goose is going right along with it. Sadly every single one of these guys would play for 200k per year or less. I am not opposed to Rondo getting what he can get under the circumstances, but this will be a huge problem if it continues.

[BballTim]

As I said last week, there is no incentive for either side to get a deal done now.  By holding off on the extension, the Celtics get Rondo's services this year at way below his market value.  Rondo, meanwhile, has no incentive to take a lowball offer when he could get the max (or close to it) next Summer.  It makes sense for both sides to hold off, and I'll be astounded if anything gets done this week.

  I think an extension he signs this week would kick in next season, not this season. I don't think it affects what Rondo gets this year.

Depends on how they structure it.

Tim is right.  No matter what, the contract would not kick in until next season.  But it would still tie the C's hands if they changed their minds, and wanted to explore trades.

  I agree with the "tie the C's hands" part. If they don't know if they want him long term that's one thing. If they don't know how the roster's going to shake out with RA and possibly PP and RR as free agents next year thar's fine. But it the plan is to lock him up to a deal the odds of it costing the same or less next summer seem pretty slim.

[Chris]

As I said last week, there is no incentive for either side to get a deal done now.  By holding off on the extension, the Celtics get Rondo's services this year at way below his market value.  Rondo, meanwhile, has no incentive to take a lowball offer when he could get the max (or close to it) next Summer.  It makes sense for both sides to hold off, and I'll be astounded if anything gets done this week.

  I think an extension he signs this week would kick in next season, not this season. I don't think it affects what Rondo gets this year.

Depends on how they structure it.

Tim is right.  No matter what, the contract would not kick in until next season.  But it would still tie the C's hands if they changed their minds, and wanted to explore trades.

  I agree with the "tie the C's hands" part. If they don't know if they want him long term that's one thing. If they don't know how the roster's going to shake out with RA and possibly PP and RR as free agents next year thar's fine. But it the plan is to lock him up to a deal the odds of it costing the same or less next summer seem pretty slim.

Oh, I absolutely agree.  I am saying that this offer was a sham.  Basically, the C's made an offer that was large enough not to offend Rondo, but not enough to make him actually consider it.  They simply have not decided whether they want him as one of the future cornerstones of the franchise, and they want to take another season to think about it.  I think they would rather take the chance of having to overpay him next season, knowing he is going to be a star, or letting him go for nothing, rather than sticking the team with an albatross two years down the line.

And let's be 100% clear, there is no chance the C's sign Rondo for less than $50 million next summer.  Either he earns significantly more money than that by his play this season, or they let him walk/trade him. 

[HomeRunBaker]

Honestly, I think all of this talk about numbers is pointless.  The way the salary cap works, in 90% of the situations, there is not a big difference between a $9 million a year contract, and a $12 million a year contract.  Most of the time, you are still going to be over the cap.

Teams are not killed by overpaying elite, building-block players by a few million a year.  Teams are killed by signing flawed, non-elite players to elite level contracts (I would consider an elite level contract, pretty much anything in the $10+ million a year range).  

I feel strongly that if the C's felt confident that Rondo was an elite level player, this would have gotten done a month ago.  However, I think they are still not convinced, and have decided that it is worth the risk to pay him a little more next season, in order to be a little more sure they are not screwing the team over by putting their future in the hands of the wrong guy.

Ultimately, it really is not going to make a huge difference in 3 years, if Rondo is making $11 million, or $13 million.  Because if they sign him for a "bargain" at 5 years, $50 million, and he turns out to be Kirk Hinrich or TJ Ford, once the Big 3 are gone, then the team is pretty screwed.  But if they wait a year, and sign him for 5 years, $65 million, and he turns out to be close to the Chris Paul/Deron Williams category, they are not going to care that they paid a few million extra, because they are going to have the production to match the money.

In the case of the Boston Celtics i completely disagree with this premise.  We still need to extend our #1, #2 and #3 offensive option over the next 1-2 years and this will not be fiscally possible if Ainge spends $50m+ on Rondo as a complimentary player.  Too many people are assuming that we are breaking up The Big Three and rebuilding around a 6'1 PG (not happening under Ainge's watch).  If we reinvest in The Big Three for another 3 seasons or so we don't need to spend $50m+ on a PG......if we move Garnett and/or Pierce we don't need $50m+ tied up on a PG on our balance sheet.  Either way you look at it the numbers don't match with the chips that Ainge has to play with which is why i'm 95% certain that Rondo will not be a Celtic past this season.....the numbers and the roster structure simply do not add up.

The 5/$45m offer is slightly more than the full MLE which is where Rondo fits today......bunched in with a half dozen other PGs in todays game (Nelson, Harris, Calderon, Williams, etc).  Ainge knows that Rondo's camp would NEVER agree to those terms and nothing will change during the course of the season for Ainge to offer what Rondo's camp is wanting.  I would not be surprised to see a cellar dweller offer Rondo a deal that his people are happy with.....but as i've said in the past, i'm glad i'm not that team.

[bunnywhi7e]

I love Rondo but IMHO I don't think he deserves the money his agent and him are asking for.

[Chris]

Honestly, I think all of this talk about numbers is pointless.  The way the salary cap works, in 90% of the situations, there is not a big difference between a $9 million a year contract, and a $12 million a year contract.  Most of the time, you are still going to be over the cap.

Teams are not killed by overpaying elite, building-block players by a few million a year.  Teams are killed by signing flawed, non-elite players to elite level contracts (I would consider an elite level contract, pretty much anything in the $10+ million a year range).  

I feel strongly that if the C's felt confident that Rondo was an elite level player, this would have gotten done a month ago.  However, I think they are still not convinced, and have decided that it is worth the risk to pay him a little more next season, in order to be a little more sure they are not screwing the team over by putting their future in the hands of the wrong guy.

Ultimately, it really is not going to make a huge difference in 3 years, if Rondo is making $11 million, or $13 million.  Because if they sign him for a "bargain" at 5 years, $50 million, and he turns out to be Kirk Hinrich or TJ Ford, once the Big 3 are gone, then the team is pretty screwed.  But if they wait a year, and sign him for 5 years, $65 million, and he turns out to be close to the Chris Paul/Deron Williams category, they are not going to care that they paid a few million extra, because they are going to have the production to match the money.

In the case of the Boston Celtics i completely disagree with this premise.  We still need to extend our #1, #2 and #3 offensive option over the next 1-2 years and this will not be fiscally possible if Ainge spends $50m+ on Rondo as a complimentary player.  Too many people are assuming that we are breaking up The Big Three and rebuilding around a 6'1 PG (not happening under Ainge's watch).  If we reinvest in The Big Three for another 3 seasons or so we don't need to spend $50m+ on a PG......if we move Garnett and/or Pierce we don't need $50m+ tied up on a PG on our balance sheet.  Either way you look at it the numbers don't match with the chips that Ainge has to play with which is why i'm 95% certain that Rondo will not be a Celtic past this season.....the numbers and the roster structure simply do not add up.

The 5/$45m offer is slightly more than the full MLE which is where Rondo fits today......bunched in with a half dozen other PGs in todays game (Nelson, Harris, Calderon, Williams, etc).  Ainge knows that Rondo's camp would NEVER agree to those terms and nothing will change during the course of the season for Ainge to offer what Rondo's camp is wanting.  I would not be surprised to see a cellar dweller offer Rondo a deal that his people are happy with.....but as i've said in the past, i'm glad i'm not that team.

What do you disagree with?  I am just saying that the C's will have no interest in signing Rondo unless he proves he is a truly elite player in the league...meaning, he is likely gone next year. 

[HomeRunBaker]

Honestly, I think all of this talk about numbers is pointless.  The way the salary cap works, in 90% of the situations, there is not a big difference between a $9 million a year contract, and a $12 million a year contract.  Most of the time, you are still going to be over the cap.

Teams are not killed by overpaying elite, building-block players by a few million a year.  Teams are killed by signing flawed, non-elite players to elite level contracts (I would consider an elite level contract, pretty much anything in the $10+ million a year range).  

I feel strongly that if the C's felt confident that Rondo was an elite level player, this would have gotten done a month ago.  However, I think they are still not convinced, and have decided that it is worth the risk to pay him a little more next season, in order to be a little more sure they are not screwing the team over by putting their future in the hands of the wrong guy.

Ultimately, it really is not going to make a huge difference in 3 years, if Rondo is making $11 million, or $13 million.  Because if they sign him for a "bargain" at 5 years, $50 million, and he turns out to be Kirk Hinrich or TJ Ford, once the Big 3 are gone, then the team is pretty screwed.  But if they wait a year, and sign him for 5 years, $65 million, and he turns out to be close to the Chris Paul/Deron Williams category, they are not going to care that they paid a few million extra, because they are going to have the production to match the money.

In the case of the Boston Celtics i completely disagree with this premise.  We still need to extend our #1, #2 and #3 offensive option over the next 1-2 years and this will not be fiscally possible if Ainge spends $50m+ on Rondo as a complimentary player.  Too many people are assuming that we are breaking up The Big Three and rebuilding around a 6'1 PG (not happening under Ainge's watch).  If we reinvest in The Big Three for another 3 seasons or so we don't need to spend $50m+ on a PG......if we move Garnett and/or Pierce we don't need $50m+ tied up on a PG on our balance sheet.  Either way you look at it the numbers don't match with the chips that Ainge has to play with which is why i'm 95% certain that Rondo will not be a Celtic past this season.....the numbers and the roster structure simply do not add up.

The 5/$45m offer is slightly more than the full MLE which is where Rondo fits today......bunched in with a half dozen other PGs in todays game (Nelson, Harris, Calderon, Williams, etc).  Ainge knows that Rondo's camp would NEVER agree to those terms and nothing will change during the course of the season for Ainge to offer what Rondo's camp is wanting.  I would not be surprised to see a cellar dweller offer Rondo a deal that his people are happy with.....but as i've said in the past, i'm glad i'm not that team.

What do you disagree with?  I am just saying that the C's will have no interest in signing Rondo unless he proves he is a truly elite player in the league...meaning, he is likely gone next year. 

Sorry Chris, i got ahead of myself and read where there wasn't much different between $9 and $12m feeling that your stance was that Ainge should pony up 5/$60m to get Rondo done which not only would be a terrible use of resources but Ainge isn't going to cripple our flexibility in extending our 1st, 2nd and 3rd options.

[sully00]

Rondo runs two big risks outside of injury in not getting a deal done.

The first is simply he does not get better, his production does not improve or worse declines.  Not really expecting his scoring to improve we just added Wallace and KG back tough to rebound more and he has shown no signs of fixing his FT shooting.  Before you say can't happen look at Perk the year after he got his contract.

The second is that next week you are a Golden State Warrior learning how to be Nellies PF in this 6'3" under line up, or a Grizzy or a Clipper.

If you don't think it could happen ask Antoine Walker.

  Perk was injured that year, wasn't he?

  Rondo's shown strong improvement each year. All the talk about him hitting a plateau before he's 24 seems a little silly.

As far as Perk he played more games than the year before his production just dropped off some.

As far as Rondo's improvement, he is a better player sure but I don't think his production has improved that much over the last two years.  Everyone makes a big deal about the post season production but forget how many more mins were played because of the overtimes.  Per 36 in the postseason Rondo was more like 14.7/8.5/8.5 still great but not as eye popping and now it is going to be KG and Wallace instead of Big Baby and Moore he becomes lucky to grab 5 boards a game.  The assists are what they are he could get 7 he could get 10 it is subjective but I don't think he is getting more shots in this offense so unless he fixes the FT's or starts taking and making 3's he is going to score 11-12 points.  You are looking at 12/5/8 just like last season.

As far as contracts go Aldridge got essentially the same deal as Big Al 5 years 65 mil.  Roy got the max of 5 years a little over 80 mil.  Now Bargnani who is not my favorite player but is a 7' who can shoot the 3 and avg 15/7 as well as the former #1 pick got 5 for 50.

Based on his production Rondo is an 8-10 mil player.  Offensively probably 8 and you add in the defense and playing on a winner and he is likely worth 10 a year.  The problem going forward with a guy like Rondo at that much or even more money is that you still have to go get the 20 ppg scorer.  Even the most one dimensional of those guys still cost 10 mil a season. This is a long term contract in terms of this present team they could just do nothing with Rondo he is here this year and they could just force him to make his way and get a sheet and tell everyone they will match and then look to deal him away when they rebuild.  But it might have more long term value to move him for something that has move value.

[BballTim]

Rondo runs two big risks outside of injury in not getting a deal done.

The first is simply he does not get better, his production does not improve or worse declines.  Not really expecting his scoring to improve we just added Wallace and KG back tough to rebound more and he has shown no signs of fixing his FT shooting.  Before you say can't happen look at Perk the year after he got his contract.

The second is that next week you are a Golden State Warrior learning how to be Nellies PF in this 6'3" under line up, or a Grizzy or a Clipper.

If you don't think it could happen ask Antoine Walker.

  Perk was injured that year, wasn't he?

  Rondo's shown strong improvement each year. All the talk about him hitting a plateau before he's 24 seems a little silly.

As far as Perk he played more games than the year before his production just dropped off some.

As far as Rondo's improvement, he is a better player sure but I don't think his production has improved that much over the last two years.  Everyone makes a big deal about the post season production but forget how many more mins were played because of the overtimes.  Per 36 in the postseason Rondo was more like 14.7/8.5/8.5 still great but not as eye popping and now it is going to be KG and Wallace instead of Big Baby and Moore he becomes lucky to grab 5 boards a game.  The assists are what they are he could get 7 he could get 10 it is subjective but I don't think he is getting more shots in this offense so unless he fixes the FT's or starts taking and making 3's he is going to score 11-12 points.  You are looking at 12/5/8 just like last season.

  Perkins may have played a few more games than the year before (when he probably had a shoulder problem) but he was playing through foot pain all season long. That's why his production dropped. As for Rondo he went from 6/4/4 as a rookie in 24 minutes to 12/6/8 last year in 33 minutes. He was more productive. He'll likely be more productive again this year. And while Rondo's numbers were based on playing in all of those overtimes all of those minutes took a toll on him (and the other guys). They played every other day and he averaged over 45 minutes a game in the first round. Knock him down to about 38 minutes a game (with no 50-54 minute games) and he'll be playing better for all of those minutes. His total numbers won't go up but his per36 numbers probably would.