Sportsline's fantasy section projects:
18.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.5 dimes, 85 3's. So, you are probably being a bit conservative on his points, especially since he hasn't averaged 15 ppg since his rookie year. I understand your conservativism, given the talent around him, but at any time, one of the other big 3 might be hurt - given their recent history.