I know there is alot of NBA offseason talk but...(Papelbon)

[Rondo2287]

It is currently the middle of the MLB season and although the Sox have the best bullpen in baseball I am still nervous about it, and for one reason

Jonathon Papelbon- He seems to have forgotten what a clean 9th inning looks like.  His walks are at an all time high.  Velocity is down and his k/walk ratio is lowest its been in his career at 2.0.  Is anybody else not as confident as they used to be when he enters a game?

[RayRay4MVP]

He needs some Lebroids.

[RAcker]

He needs some Lebroids.

[Shoot the J]

It is currently the middle of the MLB season and although the Sox have the best bullpen in baseball I am still nervous about it, and for one reason

Jonathon Papelbon- He seems to have forgotten what a clean 9th inning looks like.  His walks are at an all time high.  Velocity is down and his k/walk ratio is lowest its been in his career at 2.0.  Is anybody else not as confident as they used to be when he enters a game?

I watch enough Sox games to see where you're coming from, but I don't really think I am any less confident than in years past. Look around the league. There aren't many guys who are as lights out as Pap. His ERA is 1.80 and he's converted 20 of 22 save opportunities. To me, those are the stats that matter.

[Rondo2287]

I think a reliever's ERA is the most arbitrary stat in the book but agree to disagree. 

[Redz]

The theories abound...Is he a one trick pony?

Apparently he's been working on another pitch or two for fear that the league "has the book" on him.  Felger, on WEEI, surmised that his experimenting around with a new pitch is why his walks are up so much.

I still see him as a fastball kinda guy.  I haven't seen him throw much else, but I haven't seen every game.

Regardless, I think he's fine between the temples and that's most of the battle for a closer.

[connerhenry43]

I think a reliever's ERA is the most arbitrary stat in the book but agree to disagree. 

with all due respect, can i ask why? I know win-loss record can be deceptive, but era is a pretty good measuring stick, especially for a guy who starts an inning 95% of the time. by that i mean, he is not coming in, letting up a few hits, letting in inherited runs, getting the final out, losing the lead, but maintining his era. i know you specicially note you are talking about relievers, and i would be interested to hear your reasoning.

[crownsy]

I think a reliever's ERA is the most arbitrary stat in the book but agree to disagree. 

with all due respect, can i ask why? I know win-loss record can be deceptive, but era is a pretty good measuring stick, especially for a guy who starts an inning 95% of the time. by that i mean, he is not coming in, letting up a few hits, letting in inherited runs, getting the final out, losing the lead, but maintining his era. i know you specicially note you are talking about relievers, and i would be interested to hear your reasoning.

But a relievers ERA can go to ruin for one bad inning, and he needs 7 or 8 good apperances to get it back down due to his low amount of innings pitched and batters faced.

A starter can work off a bad inning in one start.

That's why, IMO, it's a bad stat for relievers, but good for starters. I look more at relievers WHIP and opponent BA.

ERA is great for measuring pitchers who throw alot of innings, not so much relievers IMO.

[connerhenry43]

I think a reliever's ERA is the most arbitrary stat in the book but agree to disagree. 

with all due respect, can i ask why? I know win-loss record can be deceptive, but era is a pretty good measuring stick, especially for a guy who starts an inning 95% of the time. by that i mean, he is not coming in, letting up a few hits, letting in inherited runs, getting the final out, losing the lead, but maintining his era. i know you specicially note you are talking about relievers, and i would be interested to hear your reasoning.

But a relievers ERA can go to ruin for one bad inning, and he needs 7 or 8 good apperances to get it back down due to his low amount of innings pitched and batters faced.

A starter can work off a bad inning in one start.

That's why, IMO, it's a bad stat for relievers, but good for starters. I look more at relievers WHIP and opponent BA.

ERA is great for measuring pitchers who throw alot of innings, not so much relievers IMO.

i would agree with that premise if the argument was the opposite of this topic. In other words, if i said "Reliever X is terrible; his era is 5.26!" one could argue, he had one bad outing where he let up 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning. here the opposite argument is being made. the OP said he is wary of papelbon because of the walks and cliff-hanger saves, despite the fact his era is under 2.00.

i hear what you are saying, but do not think it applies here.

[hbhsbball15]

I think a reliever's ERA is the most arbitrary stat in the book but agree to disagree. 

with all due respect, can i ask why? I know win-loss record can be deceptive, but era is a pretty good measuring stick, especially for a guy who starts an inning 95% of the time. by that i mean, he is not coming in, letting up a few hits, letting in inherited runs, getting the final out, losing the lead, but maintining his era. i know you specicially note you are talking about relievers, and i would be interested to hear your reasoning.

But a relievers ERA can go to ruin for one bad inning, and he needs 7 or 8 good apperances to get it back down due to his low amount of innings pitched and batters faced.

A starter can work off a bad inning in one start.

That's why, IMO, it's a bad stat for relievers, but good for starters. I look more at relievers WHIP and opponent BA.

ERA is great for measuring pitchers who throw alot of innings, not so much relievers IMO.

i would agree with that premise if the argument was the opposite of this topic. In other words, if i said "Reliever X is terrible; his era is 5.26!" one could argue, he had one bad outing where he let up 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning. here the opposite argument is being made. the OP said he is wary of papelbon because of the walks and cliff-hanger saves, despite the fact his era is under 2.00.

i hear what you are saying, but do not think it applies here.

I have to agree that bad reliever ERAS can be misleading do to one or two bad experiences, but good ERAs are good for a reason...the pitcher doesn't give up a lot of runs. 

You said it yourself that it takes 7 or 8 appearances to get your ERA back down, so having a low ERA means you are solid most of the time

and to answer the original post, I'm not worried about Pap.  He has consistently been one of the best closers in the league for the last three years, and he has converted 20 out of 22 this year. 

When he starts blowing saves consistently that is when I will start getting nervous.

[bucknersrevenge]

I do understand the whole bit about the lack of clean innings and the high # of walks and hits but in the pressure cooker of the AL East in the end it still comes down to results. You could argue he has not been an "elite" closer THIS year especially in comparison to his numbers from last year where his K/BB ratio was just retarded. Shelf life for most closers are very short. You can't expect him to have elite numbers every single year. What you WANT though is for when he comes into a 1-run game against NY that no matter what happens he'll shut the door in the 9th and get the save. And he's done that this year. Stats or no stats he's gotten the job done. When he starts failing in September and October I'll get nervous.

[yall hate]

I believe Pap made some comments earlier in the year, talking about wanting to pitch more to contact during the year, not ramping it up as much, etc...to try and save himself for the rest of the year...

ill try and find the quote

[guava_wrench]

I think a reliever's ERA is the most arbitrary stat in the book but agree to disagree. 

I don't agree with this for closers since closers usually get a complete inning. I do agree with this for  other relievers, especially guys who just com in to face a lefty.

[FanInTheSouth]

I believe Pap made some comments earlier in the year, talking about wanting to pitch more to contact during the year, not ramping it up as much, etc...to try and save himself for the rest of the year...

ill try and find the quote

If he actually said this then it would make a lot of sense.  I did have an excellent theory though, about how he is just so much better than everyone else that he is purposely putting men on in the 9th to add a degree of difficulty to the save.

[Bankshot]

I think a reliever's ERA is the most arbitrary stat in the book but agree to disagree. 

I don't agree with this for closers since closers usually get a complete inning. I do agree with this for  other relievers, especially guys who just com in to face a lefty.

Yeah, inherited runners.  A guy can let every inherited runner score and inflate another pitchers era, while keeping his own down.