The Celtics, Brown & 2025

[Ed Monix]

I know this subject has been broached many times, but should we be worried about Jaylen Brown long term?

In regards to the title, Brown has two season left on his current contract which would make him a free agent in 2024. Many prominent journalists have pointed out that it would behoove Brown to sign a 1 + 1 (player option) contract to allow him to become a free agent in 2025.

2025 will be when a new tv should have already been struck, and a $171 million salary cap "is very possible" in the 2025-26 season.

Based off a cap that by 2025 sits at $171 million, a 30% max deal would start at $51.3 million and carry 8% annual raises. Given how at the very least Brown will feel slighted by being in constant trade talks and the fact his current contract isn't a max...Brown will want a max deal.

Recently, Chris Mannix stated that he believes there is a real fear in the Celtics organization about Brown departing in free agency. There are going to be teams that present competitive projects which centre around him on offence, something that the Celtics can't offer.

Best case scenario, the Celtics sign Brown to a 50 million per season max deal in 2025, but with Tatum signing a super-max (35% cap) in 2026...can the Celtics remain competitive with those two whopping contracts on the books?

[Vermont Green]

It has been gone over and it is very complicated.  There is a very good summary here:

https://www.spotrac.com/research/NBA/next-contract-series-jaylen-brown-1572/#:~:text=A%20standard%20veteran%20extension%20allows,2024%2D25%3A%20%2436%2C867%2C857

The bottom line is that Brown is currently signed through the end of 2023-24 and he is set to be a UFA in the summer 2024.

He has a couple of options to sign extensions or he can play it out and become a UFA in 2024.

Signing an extension either this Oct or next results in less money in the short term but allows him to become a UFA between the end of this contract and when a second new contract would expire.  If he signs a 5 year deal in 2024, he is limited by the cap at that time and would be locked in until 2029 (unless the last year is player option or something).

If he signs an extension, that would allow him to be a UFA as early as 2026 (I think with the 3rd year being player option) when the cap is expected to be higher than it would be in 2024.  So up to that point, he would have made less (only $77M for the two years of that potential 3 year contract) but the contract he would sign at that point would allow him to make more from that point forward.

In summary, it is not as simple as concluding that there is no way he will sign an extension, even this Oct.  He is healthy right now and a valuable commodity.  He can lock in a few more years and hit the UFA market in 2026 at pretty much the best possible time for him as a player and for him in terms of expected cap increases.  Or he can take his max deal in 2024 and still get a really good long term deal, better than the extension but not as good as the long term deal he can get in 2026.

[Vermont Green]

...can the Celtics remain competitive with those two whopping contracts on the books?

I guess this is really what you are getting at.  Is this back to the "can Brown and Tatum play together" question?

I think any top team is going to have at least 2 "whopping" contracts on their books.  I would turn this around and ask "can the Celtics be competitive without these two contracts on the books"?  If not Tatum and Brown, then who?

[Roy H.]

...can the Celtics remain competitive with those two whopping contracts on the books?

I guess this is really what you are getting at.  Is this back to the "can Brown and Tatum play together" question?

I think any top team is going to have at least 2 "whopping" contracts on their books.  I would turn this around and ask "can the Celtics be competitive without these two contracts on the books"?  If not Tatum and Brown, then who?

Yeah, most teams are going to be spending the bulk of their salary cap on their top two players.  It's not in itself a problem.  So long as the Celtics are careful with their contracts, they can easily operate as an above-the-cap team without being in any real peril.

[Moranis]

...can the Celtics remain competitive with those two whopping contracts on the books?

I guess this is really what you are getting at.  Is this back to the "can Brown and Tatum play together" question?

I think any top team is going to have at least 2 "whopping" contracts on their books.  I would turn this around and ask "can the Celtics be competitive without these two contracts on the books"?  If not Tatum and Brown, then who?

Yeah, most teams are going to be spending the bulk of their salary cap on their top two players.  It's not in itself a problem.  So long as the Celtics are careful with their contracts, they can easily operate as an above-the-cap team without being in any real peril.

The question isn't Brown and Tatum, it is what is the rest of the roster going to look like, and in that I think there is real concern.  The team has no real way to replace Horford's salary slot, without trading Horford or re-signing him at more money than he is probably worth (given his age).  I don't think Brogdon has all that many years left and Smart is getting older as well, and neither of those guys are pictures of health.  Rob has been a walking injury so far in his career.  There are no rookie contract players on the roster you could reasonably believe could be starters on a contender at any point in their career. 

The problem isn't Brown and Tatum, it is the rest of the roster, and 2 years from now that might not look so good.  That is why I've been saying the team has a 2 year window.  It is why it was a mistake not to use the big TPE.  It is why I was ok acquiring someone like Durant even at the cost of Brown and Smart.   

[Roy H.]

That is why I've been saying the team has a 2 year window. 

I think that's way too pessimistic.  I think that a team with a core of Tatum / Brown / Timelord / Smart is going to be a contender, regardless of peripheral pieces.  I also think that we've got enough "chunk" contracts to keep operating as an above the cap team.

We do need to figure out the post-Horford situation, though.  I think re-signing him to a two-year deal, partially guaranteed deal where he is significantly overpaid may be our best option to maintain his deal as a trade asset. 

[keevsnick]

I know this subject has been broached many times, but should we be worried about Jaylen Brown long term?

In regards to the title, Brown has two season left on his current contract which would make him a free agent in 2024. Many prominent journalists have pointed out that it would behoove Brown to sign a 1 + 1 (player option) contract to allow him to become a free agent in 2025.

2025 will be when a new tv should have already been struck, and a $171 million salary cap "is very possible" in the 2025-26 season.

Based off a cap that by 2025 sits at $171 million, a 30% max deal would start at $51.3 million and carry 8% annual raises. Given how at the very least Brown will feel slighted by being in constant trade talks and the fact his current contract isn't a max...Brown will want a max deal.

Recently, Chris Mannix stated that he believes there is a real fear in the Celtics organization about Brown departing in free agency. There are going to be teams that present competitive projects which center around him on offence, something that the Celtics can't offer.

Best case scenario, the Celtics sign Brown to a 50 million per season max deal in 2025, but with Tatum signing a super-max (35% cap) in 2026...can the Celtics remain competitive with those two whopping contracts on the books?

Those are big contracts, but those contracts will still only be worth 35% and 30% of the cap. Pretty much every contending team has two of those types on contracts on the books and manages to fill out a team just fine. Hell some have three.

By the time this is an issue in 3 years (if Brown even signs a 1+1, he might just sign the regulars max in two years. or the supermax. Not telling for sure) the only contracts the Celtics will have on the books would be tatum/brown (new contracts) and Smart/Williams in their last year. In other words the c's will look so different its not even worth worrying about.

[Vermont Green]

...can the Celtics remain competitive with those two whopping contracts on the books?

I guess this is really what you are getting at.  Is this back to the "can Brown and Tatum play together" question?

I think any top team is going to have at least 2 "whopping" contracts on their books.  I would turn this around and ask "can the Celtics be competitive without these two contracts on the books"?  If not Tatum and Brown, then who?

Yeah, most teams are going to be spending the bulk of their salary cap on their top two players.  It's not in itself a problem.  So long as the Celtics are careful with their contracts, they can easily operate as an above-the-cap team without being in any real peril.

The question isn't Brown and Tatum, it is what is the rest of the roster going to look like, and in that I think there is real concern.  The team has no real way to replace Horford's salary slot, without trading Horford or re-signing him at more money than he is probably worth (given his age).  I don't think Brogdon has all that many years left and Smart is getting older as well, and neither of those guys are pictures of health.  Rob has been a walking injury so far in his career.  There are no rookie contract players on the roster you could reasonably believe could be starters on a contender at any point in their career. 

The problem isn't Brown and Tatum, it is the rest of the roster, and 2 years from now that might not look so good.  That is why I've been saying the team has a 2 year window.  It is why it was a mistake not to use the big TPE.  It is why I was ok acquiring someone like Durant even at the cost of Brown and Smart.   

Horford is currently the only player whose "slot" is at a high risk of being lost.  Everyone else in our core rotation is signed on pretty good contracts currently and able to be extended at the end of their contract.   And even Horford, he may come back on a more affordable contract for a couple more years although replacing Horford is an issue that needs to be faced fairly soon.

I don't think we are any different from any of the other top teams.  All the top teams are over the cap at a minimum and likely in the tax in most or all cases.  We have plenty of salary to trade if we get a chance to bring in a max contract star (White, Brogdon, Smart, RWill).  I don't see it as a missed opportunity that we didn't use the TPE for a player the other team doesn't want and we don't need.  You still have to give up something to get something of value back, draft picks or whatever.  Or you get a player that is not worth anything that a team just wants to dump for a second round pick or whatever.

I don't understand how having a player on the roster that is making say $15M but is worth no more than a second round pick is some kind of an asset.  That contact is of no use in a trade unless it is for another player with little value or if we attach a bunch of picks to it.  I don't see our picks and a bad contract getting a player that is actually going to crack our rotation.

[Moranis]

That is why I've been saying the team has a 2 year window. 

I think that's way too pessimistic.  I think that a team with a core of Tatum / Brown / Timelord / Smart is going to be a contender, regardless of peripheral pieces.  I also think that we've got enough "chunk" contracts to keep operating as an above the cap team.

We do need to figure out the post-Horford situation, though.  I think re-signing him to a two-year deal, partially guaranteed deal where he is significantly overpaid may be our best option to maintain his deal as a trade asset.

Smart is starting year 9 this year.  Given how many minor injuries he has had, and his inability to shoot, I'm not sure how effective he is actually going to be in year 11 on (which is what he will be in 3 seasons).  I would not be relying upon Smart for all that much longer.  Rob is obviously young enough to be on the frontside of his prime, but he just can't stay healthy.  We've seen guys like Rob end up out of the league because of injuries.  I think he should still be a solid player, but the injury risk is real with him.  I think White should still be basically what he is 3 years from now so I'm not really worried about him.  If Brown, re-signs after 24, then I think Boston needs to go hard that summer and try to get a 3rd piece before Tatum, and to a lesser extent Rob, come off the books in the summer of 25 with  Smart and White following in the summer of 26.

The summer of 24 is the big one for the team going forward.  That is the time when Brown will need to be re-signed and the team has as much flexibility as it will have at any time in the near future.