Tiebreaker Rules and Analysis

[kraidstar]

Division Winners are decided first, THEN seeding is determined.

Two Teams Tied

1. head to head record
2. Is one team a division winner and the other not
3. division record (only if in same division)
4. conference record
5. record against in-conference playoff teams
6. record against non-conference playoff teams
7. point differential


Three or More Teams Tied

1. Is one team a division winner and the others aren't
2. cumulative head to head record among the tied teams
3. division record (only if all teams are in same division)
4. conference record
5. record vs in-conference playoff teams
6. point differential

Sixers:
46-27 record, 6-9 division (Atlantic), 27-17 conference, 14-10 vs conference playoff teams
2-2 vs bos, 2-2 vs mia, 1-1 vs mil
Remaining Schedule: @phx, vs mil, @det, vs cha, @cle, @ind, @tor, vs ind, vs det

Heat:
47-28 record, 11-2 division (Southeast), 30-16 conference, 12-11 vs conference playoff teams
0-2 vs bos, 2-2 vs phi, 2-2 vs mil
Remaining Schedule: vs sac, @bos, @chi, @tor, vs cha, vs atl @orl

Celtics:
46-28 record, 9-6 division (Atlantic), 30-16 conference, 14-7 vs conference playoff teams
2-0 vs mia, 2-2 vs phi, 2-1 vs mil
Remaining Schedule: vs min, @tor, vs mia, vs ind, vs wsh, @chi, @mil, @mem

Bucks:
46-28 record, 10-3 division (Central), 28-18 conference, 10-11 vs conference playoff teams
1-2 vs bos, 2-2 vs mia, 1-1 vs mil
Remaining Schedule: @phi, @brk, vs lac, vs dal, @chi, vs bos, @det, @cle


Looking at all this Boston is in great shape is they can manage a tough schedule. We hold the tiebreaker over Miami due to head-to head. We hold the tiebreaker over Philly due to division record (and each team has only 1 more division game, so that will not change). In a tie we will get the Atlantic division title, which in turn guarantees us a higher seed than Philly in a 3-or-4-team tie. If we beat Milwaukee in the second-to-last game of the season we clinch the tiebreaker over them.

One weird scenario could potentially screw us: if we lose the division to Philly but end up tied with Miami and Milwaukee they would get higher seeding than us due to being division champions. In that scenario at least we'd be guaranteed to avoid Brooklyn.

The Sixers have the easiest schedule and one fewer loss than everyone else. They need this advantage as Miami and Boston both hold tiebreakers over them. If they can beat the Bucks head-to-head they receive a 2-game advantage in the loss column plus the tiebreaker. 

Miami's strong conference record could bail them out in a tie with the Bucks and/or Sixers, and their division title might give them an edge over the Sixers.

The Bucks' poor conference record could be a problem; they really need to win against the Sixers and C's to have any hope of getting those tiebreakers. Milwaukee also needs Boston to lose 4+ conference games to get a tiebreaker advantage over them. Same for Miami.

[action781]

One weird scenario could potentially screw us: if we lose the division to Philly but end up tied with Miami and Milwaukee they would get higher seeding than us due to being division champions. In that scenario at least we'd be guaranteed to avoid Brooklyn. 

This was such a helpful analysis, thank you!

I'm not sure if we get screwed at all by this scenario. We have to play a tough first round opponent sure, but if we can't beat Chicago with HCA then we were destined to lose somewhere. We get to avoid Brooklyn in round 1. Then we get Philly in round 2, which I'd prefer over Miami or Milwaukee. I kind of like this scenario.

[kraidstar]

One weird scenario could potentially screw us: if we lose the division to Philly but end up tied with Miami and Milwaukee they would get higher seeding than us due to being division champions. In that scenario at least we'd be guaranteed to avoid Brooklyn. 

This was such a helpful analysis, thank you!

I'm not sure if we get screwed at all by this scenario. We have to play a tough first round opponent sure, but if we can't beat Chicago with HCA then we were destined to lose somewhere. We get to avoid Brooklyn in round 1. Then we get Philly in round 2, which I'd prefer over Miami or Milwaukee. I kind of like this scenario.

Yeah it's not a bad outcome. I think we match up pretty well with Philly.

And part of me wants to avoid that #2 seed. The odds are excellent Brooklyn lands at #7. Then again if Rob is healthy I'm not sure any team can beat us.

The guy is dominating like Bill Russell out there.

But man what a crazy, unprecedented situation with 4 teams basically tied right now with a riduculous amount of variables that could affect seeding.

[sgrogan]

One weird scenario could potentially screw us: if we lose the division to Philly but end up tied with Miami and Milwaukee they would get higher seeding than us due to being division champions. In that scenario at least we'd be guaranteed to avoid Brooklyn. 

This was such a helpful analysis, thank you!

I'm not sure if we get screwed at all by this scenario. We have to play a tough first round opponent sure, but if we can't beat Chicago with HCA then we were destined to lose somewhere. We get to avoid Brooklyn in round 1. Then we get Philly in round 2, which I'd prefer over Miami or Milwaukee. I kind of like this scenario.

Yeah it's not a bad outcome. I think we match up pretty well with Philly.

And part of me wants to avoid that #2 seed. The odds are excellent Brooklyn lands at #7. Then again if Rob is healthy I'm not sure any team can beat us.

The guy is dominating like Bill Russell out there.

But man what a crazy, unprecedented situation with 4 teams basically tied right now with a riduculous amount of variables that could affect seeding.

Given the recent turn of events can you add Chicago and Toronto?

[kraidstar]

Chicago
43-31 overall, 10-5 (Central Division), 28-18 conference
1-1 vs bos, 0-2 vs mia, 0-4 vs phi, 0-3 vs mil, 3-1 vs Cleveland, 3-1 vs Toronto
Remaining Schedule: @nyk, @wsh, vs lac, vs mia, vs mil, vs bos, vs cha, @min

Toronto
42-32 overall, 8-5 (Atlantic Division), 26-20 conference
1-2 vs bos, 2-1 vs mia, 2-1 vs phi, 3-0 vs mil, 1-3 vs Chicago, 1-3 vs Cleveland
Remaining Schedule:
vs bos, vs min, @orl, vs mia, vs atl, vs phi, vs hou, @nyk

Cleveland
41-33 overall, 9-6 (Central division), 24-21 conference
1-3 vs Chicago, 3-1 vs Toronto, 2-2 vs Charlotte, 1-2 vs Brooklyn
Remaining Schedule:
vs orl, vs dal, @atl, @nyk, vs phi, @orl, @brk, vs min

Charlotte
39-36 overall, 6-7 (southeast division), 23-23 conference
2-2 vs cle, 2-1 vs brk, 2-2 vs atl
Remaining Schedule:
vs den, @nyk, @phi, @mia, vs orl, @chi, vs wsh

Brooklyn
39-36 overall, 9-6 (Atlantic Conference), 27-19 conference
2-1 vs cle, 2-0 vs atl, 1-2 vs cha
Remaining Schedule:
vs det, vs mil, @atl, vs hou, @nyk, vs cle, vs ind

Atlanta
37-37 overall, 8-6 (Southwest Division), 22-24 conference
2-2 vs cha, 0-2 vs brk
Remaining Schedule
@ind, @okc, vs cle, vs brk, @tor, vs wsh, @mia, @hou

Chicago actually has a chance to catch the C's, they have one deciding head-to head matchup remaining, and would need to pick up 2 additional games. That would have to be a two-way tie however, as they have a horrible 0-9 combined record against Miami, Philly, and Milwaukee. They own the head-to head tiebreakers over both Toronto and Cleveland with a combined 6-2 record. They have a 4-game homestand next week against Miami, Milwaukee, Boston, and Charlotte that will have a major impact on the standings. Which Bulls team will we see?

Toronto is 4 games back of the #4-seed and needs to pick up 2 games on slumping Chicago to get home court in a 4-5 seed first round matchup. Chicago and Cleveland both own the H2H tiebreakers against them so they will need to continue their hot streak.

Cleveland needs to pick up 3 games on Chicago to catch them, which seems like a long shot. They only need to make up 1 games to top Toronto and stay out of the play-in tourney. Their second-to-last game is against Brooklyn, who is 3 losses behind but would effectively be only 1.5 losses back if they beat Cleveland in that H2H.

In a three-way tie, Chicago would be #5, Cleveland #6, and Toronto #7.

Charlotte controls their own destiny as far as staying out of the lower bracket in the play-in tourney thanks to their H2H advantage over Brooklyn. They would likely need to pick up 4 games in the loss column to pass Cleveland, as Cleveland holds a 3-game conference advantage. Charlotte was only 7-16 vs eastern playoff teams while Cleveland was 11-15. That 4th tiebreaker is insurmountable unless Brooklyn and Charlotte both tie Cleveland, which would then default to the H2H total between the 3.

Brooklyn holds the H2H against Cleveland but not Charlotte. Luckily for them they have the easiest schedule of any playoff hopeful, and 5 of their 7 games are at home. Charlotte's opponents are slightly tougher and they have only 3 home games out of 7.

Atlanta was 2-2 vs Charlotte, but is only 1 game back in overall loss column and 1 game back in the conference record. If they tie the conference record they will likely own the tiebreaker due to their superior 12-15 record against current eastern playoff teams. Brooklyn owns the H2H tiebreaker, but Atlanta can at least pick up a game on them Saturday at home to make things interesting.

In a 3-way tie, if Atlanta beats Brooklyn on Saturday, then Charlotte would be #8, Brooklyn #9, and Atlanta #10 due to total H2H. If Brooklyn wins but Atlanta still somehow forces a 3-way tie, then Brooklyn would be #8, Charlotte #9, and Atlanta #10.