Project our players minutes if on a contender

[NKY fan]

I tried to project how much our players would play if they were on a contender's rosters. I picked only for the top 5 from west, top 3 from east + Miami. I did not include Tatum and Brown as I didn't want this to be a discussion on how well or not so well the Js would fit on the Lakers (or any team).
These are my judgmental selections for minutes played by our players based on roster depth of 9 contenders:



I gave Tristan a boost on certain teams because he is buddy with some of the stars there. Timelord and Pritchard on the other hand receive less minutes on veteran teams full of stars or (ex all stars) like the nets.

Is it about right that on contenders our top rotation players are expected to play 10ish minutes less?

[Moranis]

I tried to project how much our players would play if they were on a contender's rosters. I picked only for the top 5 from west, top 3 from east + Miami. I did not include Tatum and Brown as I didn't want this to be a discussion on how well or not so well the Js would fit on the Lakers (or any team).
These are my judgmental selections for minutes played by our players based on roster depth of 9 contenders:



I gave Tristan a boost on certain teams because he is buddy with some of the stars there. Timelord and Pritchard on the other hand receive less minutes on veteran teams full of stars or (ex all stars) like the nets.

Is it about right that on contenders our top rotation players are expected to play 10ish minutes less?

you are seriously underrating Kemba.  He'd play similar minutes on probably every team that isn't the Nets.

[NKY fan]

I tried to project how much our players would play if they were on a contender's rosters. I picked only for the top 5 from west, top 3 from east + Miami. I did not include Tatum and Brown as I didn't want this to be a discussion on how well or not so well the Js would fit on the Lakers (or any team).
These are my judgmental selections for minutes played by our players based on roster depth of 9 contenders:



I gave Tristan a boost on certain teams because he is buddy with some of the stars there. Timelord and Pritchard on the other hand receive less minutes on veteran teams full of stars or (ex all stars) like the nets.

Is it about right that on contenders our top rotation players are expected to play 10ish minutes less?

you are seriously underrating Kemba.  He'd play similar minutes on probably every team that isn't the Nets.

So you are questioning his Utah and MIA minutes? maybe on Utah he can play more but J.Clarkson is absolutely killing it there and they have Mitchell and Conley - both all stars.
Miami is just weird - Spolstra plays all these guards that seem to excel and they have Oladipo now...

[PhoSita]

A great deal depends on who the core players of the contender are.  Are they build around LeBron? Kawhi? Jokic? Lillard?


In a vacuum

Tatum - 34-38 mpg (star scorer)

Brown - 34-38 mpg (star secondary scorer)

--------

Kemba - 24-28 mpg (veteran starter who plays limited minutes; 4th option who occasionally does more)

Evan Fournier - 20-28 mpg (either a scoring reserve or a 4th / 5th starter)

Smart - 24-28 mpg (swiss army knife / energy bench guy)

Rob Williams - 20-24 mpg (part of a center platoon)

-------

Pritchard - 10-20 mpg (backup point)

Tristan Thompson - 10-16 mpg (back up center)

Romeo Langford - 10-15 mpg (if healthy he should be an athletic reserve / defensive 4th wing)

Luke Kornet - 5-10 mpg (4th or 5th big; stretch option)

--------

Grant Williams - 0-15 mpg (5th big / forward)

Semi Ojeleye - 0-10 mpg (5th wing)

Mo Wagner - 0-10 mpg (energy end of bench guy)

--------

Aaron Nesmith - G League (raw project)

Carsen Edwards - G League or overseas

Tre Waters - G League or overseas

Tacko Fall - overseas



Basically as I see it the Celts have:

- two stars,

- four solid rotation pieces,

- another four guys who should see limited minutes depending on matchups,

- a few guys who should be at the end of the bench and mostly not play

- and four guys who aren't really NBA players right now.


It's the fit and health of the top 6 guys, plus a total lack of a middle of the rotation (i.e. 2-3 guys you can count on to play 15-20 mpg), that I see as the problem.

[NKY fan]

A great deal depends on who the core players of the contender are.  Are they build around LeBron? Kawhi? Jokic? Lillard?


In a vacuum

Tatum - 34-38 mpg (star scorer)

Brown - 34-38 mpg (star secondary scorer)

--------

Kemba - 24-28 mpg (veteran starter who plays limited minutes; 4th option who occasionally does more)

Evan Fournier - 20-28 mpg (either a scoring reserve or a 4th / 5th starter)

Smart - 24-28 mpg (swiss army knife / energy bench guy)

Rob Williams - 20-24 mpg (part of a center platoon)

-------

Pritchard - 10-20 mpg (backup point)

Tristan Thompson - 10-16 mpg (back up center)

Romeo Langford - 10-15 mpg (if healthy he should be an athletic reserve / defensive 4th wing)

Luke Kornet - 5-10 mpg (4th or 5th big; stretch option)

--------

Grant Williams - 0-15 mpg (5th big / forward)

Semi Ojeleye - 0-10 mpg (5th wing)

Mo Wagner - 0-10 mpg (energy end of bench guy)

--------

Aaron Nesmith - G League (raw project)

Carsen Edwards - G League or overseas

Tre Waters - G League or overseas

Tacko Fall - overseas



Basically as I see it the Celts have:

- two stars,

- four solid rotation pieces,

- another four guys who should see limited minutes depending on matchups,

- a few guys who should be at the end of the bench and mostly not play

- and four guys who aren't really NBA players right now.


It's the fit and health of the top 6 guys, plus a total lack of a middle of the rotation (i.e. 2-3 guys you can count on to play 15-20 mpg), that I see as the problem.

I left Tatum and Brown out of my projection because there is no debate there.
So we kind of agree on the make up of the team. If you go contender by contender like on the image posted there will be fits for more or less minutes depending on the roster and fit . When I average for the 9 contenders I am at the low end range that you are giving for Kemba, Smart Fournier, Pritchard and Timelord. Timelord really won't be getting minutes on a few contenders with dominant centers and good reserves.

[Moranis]

I tried to project how much our players would play if they were on a contender's rosters. I picked only for the top 5 from west, top 3 from east + Miami. I did not include Tatum and Brown as I didn't want this to be a discussion on how well or not so well the Js would fit on the Lakers (or any team).
These are my judgmental selections for minutes played by our players based on roster depth of 9 contenders:



I gave Tristan a boost on certain teams because he is buddy with some of the stars there. Timelord and Pritchard on the other hand receive less minutes on veteran teams full of stars or (ex all stars) like the nets.

Is it about right that on contenders our top rotation players are expected to play 10ish minutes less?

you are seriously underrating Kemba.  He'd play similar minutes on probably every team that isn't the Nets.

So you are questioning his Utah and MIA minutes? maybe on Utah he can play more but J.Clarkson is absolutely killing it there and they have Mitchell and Conley - both all stars.
Miami is just weird - Spolstra plays all these guards that seem to excel and they have Oladipo now...

No I'm saying he'd play around 30 mpg on every team that is not Brooklyn and he'd probably get around 24 for them (basically overlapping with Harden and Irving so when one is on the bench he is in the game playing with the other).  Take the Heat, Walker is absolutely better than Nunn, who has been starting at PG basically all year and is playing 28.6 mpg.  And that doesn't even account for Herro and Dragic, who Walker is also better than. 

The bashing of Walker on this board is pretty extreme.  He is a dang good player who has mostly been back into form since the Clipper game on February 5th.  He clearly started off slowly, but is back into near all star form for basically 2 months. 

[Celtics4ever]

On a contender
Tatum - 30-35 min   But we have to play him all the time because of lack of depth
Brown - 30-35 min   But we have to play him all the time because of lack of depth
Kemba - 15-20 min   bum knee
Evan Fournier - 20 mpg
Smart - 15-20 min  On a contender he would get pulled if out of hand.
Rob Williams - 20-min
Pritchard - 10 min
Tristan Thompson - 10 Min 
Romeo Langford - 5-10 Min if healthy and that is a big "if" folks
Luke Kornet - 0-5 minutes
Grant Williams - zero minutes, I am of the opinion that everyone below this level will be lucky to be the league in three years including Grant
Semi Ojeleye - 0-5 mpg   Situational Defense
Mo Wagner - Zero minutes
Aaron Nesmith -  Zero minutes
Carsen Edwards - Zero minutes
Tre Waters - Zero minutes
Tacko Fall -Zero minutes

So six of our guys as I see it would not see playing time on a contender unless the team was suffering from multiple maladies.     I think that is the basis our problems but hey they are swell good culture guys.