TPE, Two Second-Rounders and Kemba FTW: Rubio/Horford

[GreenlyGreeny]

The production of Ricky Rubio and Al Horford combined is roughly 19-20 PPG, 9-10 APG, and 9-10 RPG. The Trade Machine projects it would be an enormous upgrade for us. Horford’s contract is off the books after next year, and so what if we’re overpaying him when there’s no better way to spend those dollars? How is Kemba and a couple second-rounders worth more than 19-20 PPG, 9-10 APG, and 9-10 RPG this year and next?!?

Ladies and gentlemen, the solution to our problems:

Facilitators like Ricky Rubio and Al Horford are what we need to complement a AAA wing duo like the Jay Bros., not a score-first PG with old knees like Kemba, so here’s a proposal to use the TPE and move Kemba in order to improve our front court and get a better facilitator at PG:

BOS In: Horford, Rubio
BOS Out: Kemba, TPE, ‘21 2nd, ‘22 2nd

Why We Do It: Get rid of Kemba’s contract/uncertainty, and upgrade our passing at PG and front court performance. All without risking going over the luxury line this year or next.

UTA In: Kemba
UTA Out: Conley

Why They Do It: Conley’s contract expires after this year, and staying in Utah is probably not a priority. They already have a capable PG in Jordan Clarkson to take over for Conley, so they could see Kemba as a spark-plug 6th man and hope he reverts back to form. They won’t have cap space to sign anybody with the dollars going away when Conley goes away, so they might as well keep Conley’s dollars on the books via Kemba and hope he reverts to form. Unlike us, they can take that gamble with Kemba since they’re already on their way to contending for a title, with or without Conley or Kemba...

OKC In: Conley
OKC Out: Horford

Why They Do It: Conley’s contract is expiring, so they free up cap space by moving Horford and just taking on Conley.

MN In: BOS ‘21 2nd, BOS ‘22 2nd
MN Out: Rubio

Why They Do It: $17 million in cap space and a couple extra picks. Better haul than they gave up to get Rubio to begin with. Nobody else in the league has a TPE to take on Rubio with, and reportedly Rubio wants out after being moved to MN by PHX, so this move makes a ton of sense.

https://tradenba.com/trades/MiqAAfEXy

Is a combined 20 PPG, 10 APG and 10 RPG not a huge improvement for us? ESPECIALLY when you consider how much better Brown and Tatum perform with facilitators like Rubio, Pritchard and Horford rather than a scoring PG like Kemba? So that means their facilitation could even further enhance the scoring of the Jay Bros.:

Rubio/Pritchard/Edwards
Smart/Teague/Langford
Brown/Ojeyele/Nesmith
Tatum/Theis/G. Williams
Horford/TT/R. Williams

All but Ojeyele, Teague, and Theis are under contract next year, and we have our 2021 first rounder (unless we can convince the Pistons to give us Jackson for our 2021 1st and our Kanter TPE), and Yam Madar coming in. Let’s do this!

[GreenlyGreeny]

Nobody wants to comment on the idea? With Kemba being a hot mess, clearly the best way to use the TPE is on Rubio unless we think a sign-and-trade of Kawhi is even remotely possible in the off-season (seems extremely unlikely). Barnes is not going to be available, unfortunately (my top hope for the TPE), so let’s bring in a facilitator who can up the Super Jay Bros.’ game.

We are sorely missing Horford, too. He’s still got it. Some thought Brady was not worth keeping in New England at that age for those kind of dollars. Look at how that turned out. It’s not like we can spend the dollars any better way, so what if Horford is being paid after paying his dues? We’d still be below the luxury line this year, and we’d actually have a coherent front-court with some veteran leadership. 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I think this is a lateral move at best for the Cs. Rubio is looking more washed up than Kemba this season. I'm not really sure how much good basketball Horford has left.

I like both players, but I don't think the Cs are doing so poorly that they need a shake up that, on paper, is a lateral move.

I also don't love have both Rubio and Smart as the guards in your starting lineup. You need more shooting to complement the Js.

[Birdman]

Don’t need Al or Rubio...Rubio can’t shoot and Al contract is awful

[gouki88]

Bad move for us. Loss of shooting and puts us in a bad way financially

[GreenlyGreeny]

Is it really a loss of shooting, though? Kemba’s not playing a lot, which obviously equals zero points in those games, and when he does play he’s averaging 15.5 PPG. Al’s averaging 14.5 PPG. The big difference is Al provides 7.0 RPG, and 1 of 7 of those are offensive meaning another shot for someone else.

In terms of Rubio, he’s averaging 6.3 APG but averaged 8.8 last season. With veterans surrounding him, he could get back to the 9ish range. Add Horford’s 2-3 APG, along with Rubio’s 6 PPG, and we’re completely replacing Kemba’s production last year in terms of scoring, and having the equivalent of a triple double per game if Horford/Rubio were one player. The fact they are two means we’re less reliant on a single player’s health, too, which is clearly not working for us with Kemba this year. Move Javonte or anybody else and we’re still below the luxury line despite adding the two contracts. Their current contracts are finished after next year, so I see that as better than two more years of Kemba’s contract in terms of our financial standing.

Now Rubio is struggling with shooting after averaging 13 PPG last year, so there is a serious concern about pairing him with Smart. That said, being paired with two threats in the Super Jay Bros. could really open his number of looks and perhaps get back up to 13 PPG/9 APG/5 RPG, which are just shy of being John Stockton circa 1996-1998 esque numbers. Certainly precisely what the Jays need from their PG. I really think Rubio is just bummed being in MN again without having a say in the matter. A change of environment could bring him right back to where he left off a year ago...

Finally, let’s not forget that Rubio knows how to play D, unlike Kemba, so a lineup of Rubio/Smart/Brown/Tatum/Horford really does not have any serious defensive deficiencies other than when Horford gets pooped, but we’ve got TT for those moments (really no reason why such a lineup would not lead the league in defense, especially if Horford and Rubio could inspire the Jays to always be two-way elite, not take defensive trips off).

Just my two cents...

[gouki88]

Is it really a loss of shooting, though? Kemba’s not playing a lot, which obviously equals zero points in those games, and when he does play he’s averaging 15.5 PPG. Al’s averaging 14.5 PPG. The big difference is Al provides 7.0 RPG, and 1 of 7 of those are offensive meaning another shot for someone else.

In terms of Rubio, he’s averaging 6.3 APG but averaged 8.8 last season. With veterans surrounding him, he could get back to the 9ish range. Add Horford’s 2-3 APG, along with Rubio’s 6 PPG, and we’re completely replacing Kemba’s production last year in terms of scoring, and having the equivalent of a triple double per game if Horford/Rubio were one player. The fact they are two means we’re less reliant on a single player’s health, too, which is clearly not working for us with Kemba this year. Move Javonte or anybody else and we’re still below the luxury line despite adding the two contracts. Their current contracts are finished after next year, so I see that as better than two more years of Kemba’s contract in terms of our financial standing.

Now Rubio is struggling with shooting after averaging 13 PPG last year, so there is a serious concern about pairing him with Smart. That said, being paired with two threats in the Super Jay Bros. could really open his number of looks and perhaps get back up to 13 PPG/9 APG/5 RPG, which are just shy of being John Stockton circa 1996-1998 esque numbers. Certainly precisely what the Jays need from their PG. I really think Rubio is just bummed being in MN again without having a say in the matter. A change of environment could bring him right back to where he left off a year ago...and let’s not forget that he knows how to play D, unlike Kemba...

Just my two cents...

Ricky Rubio is shooting 20% from 3 and is a career 39% from the field and 32% from 3. So yes, it really really is.

Horford isn't as efficient this year as he was with us (although he's better now that he doesn't have to play for Brett Brown) but he's worse defensively and has a truly terrible contract.

I know you didn't just compare Ricky Rubio to John Stockton, and say Ricky Rubio knows how to play D. Rubio steal-hunts and flops - Kemba is a significantly better positional and help defender.

[GreenlyGreeny]

You’re probably right that I’m overrating Rubio’s scoring and defensive abilities (apologies: Did not mean to imply or suggest that Rubio would bring Stockton-like defensive abilities, but his offensive production could be comparable to being just shy of late ‘90s Stockton).

But there’s no denying he’s one of the better passing PGs and that’s what Brown and Tatum need more than anything. This shoot-first PG approach is not working with the Jays. It’s never what a wing duo needs, really. I can’t even name MJ and Pippen’s numerous PGs, but definitely do not recall them being shoot-first PGs. Heck, a wing duo needs a good rebounder hence our memories of Rodman and Horace Grant.

[gouki88]

You’re probably right that I’m overrating Rubio’s scoring and defensive abilities (apologies: Did not mean to imply or suggest that Rubio would bring Stockton-like defensive abilities, but his offensive production could be comparable to being just shy of late ‘90s Stockton).

But there’s no denying he’s one of the better passing PGs and that’s what Brown and Tatum need more than anything. This shoot-first PG approach is not working with the Jays. It’s never what a wing duo needs, really. I can’t even name MJ and Pippen’s numerous PGs, but definitely do not recall them being shoot-first PGs. Heck, a wing duo needs a good rebounder hence our memories of Rodman and Horace Grant.

I don't even know that that's what Brown and Tatum need at all. Brad seems to really like Tatum in that point-forward kind of role, and he seems to be thriving in it as of late. I think more than anything the Cs need a guy who can shoot the 3 and defend solidly. It's why I wanted us to pursue Jrue Holiday.

I think Pritchard will be that guy for us in the long run. I don't know that Kemba will be, given his physical shortcomings for defence