Future 1st's Value Low

[Moranis]

It wasn't long ago where the cheap nature of future 1st's made them very valuable and teams weren't willing to trade them.  It seems that trend has now gone completely the other direction.  Teams are now trading future 1st's like they grow on trees.  They are doing so with less protections and really far out.  And it isn't just about acquiring stars.  Some teams are doing it just to dump salary (see Golden State and Boston this year). 

There seems to be two recent changes that might be driving that.  First, is obviously the lottery change odds and the more fluid nature of picks.  A back end of the lottery pick just isn't worth that much in relation to a mid 1st or even a back end of top 10 pick, so all you need is a top 4 protection and you are set.  Second, the cap spike has leveled off such that teams don't have nearly the cap space they once did and the cost savings of a 1st rounder isn't as great as it used to be. 

I wonder if that trend will continue or if it will sort of correct itself again. 

[action781]

The rare times its used to dump salary is not entirely new.  I remember Phoenix used to do it with regularity in the 2000s.  I think that's how we got Rondo actually.

I think they've mostly been traded lately to acquire stars because the teams trading them away don't have enough other good young assets to trade away.  The picks are the valuable assets.  We're in a rare time when the NBA title is up for grabs, so teams are going all in for a shot at it.  Its a pretty sensible move for these teams IMO even if it means they are mortgaging their future for that shot.

I think the teams like OKC hoarding draft picks now are going to be in a great situation down the road like Boston was a couple years ago.

[footey]

Seems like this has been skewed particularly by OKC, who was in a very unique situation where they held a lot of leverage over the Clippers, who absolutely had to get Paul George to sign Kawhi, and whose only meaningful assets to get him were future first round picks. They were in a similar position, albeit to a lesser extent (Houston really wanted to do get another star and dump Chris Paul), when they moved Russell to the Rockets.

The Lakers to a lesser extent, were were compelled to trade for AD so that they wouldn't waste Year 2 of the LBJ Plan.  They figured there was more competition than in fact there was, and probably could have paid less in picks.  But as a FA destination, draft picks will always hold less value for them than for most other teams.

So while I agree with the first two reasons you site, I would say a 3rd reason is because shorter contracts of big stars, and player demanded movement to team up with them, has created greater liquidity in future 1st round picks in order to grease these transactional wheels.

[Moranis]

Seems like this has been skewed particularly by OKC, who was in a very unique situation where they held a lot of leverage over the Clippers, who absolutely had to get Paul George to sign Kawhi, and whose only meaningful assets to get him were future first round picks. They were in a similar position, albeit to a lesser extent (Houston really wanted to do get another star and dump Chris Paul), when they moved Russell to the Rockets.

The Lakers to a lesser extent, were were compelled to trade for AD so that they wouldn't waste Year 2 of the LBJ Plan.  They figured there was more competition than in fact there was, and probably could have paid less in picks.  But as a FA destination, draft picks will always hold less value for them than for most other teams.

So while I agree with the first two reasons you site, I would say a 3rd reason is because shorter contracts of big stars, and player demanded movement to team up with them, has created greater liquidity in future 1st round picks in order to grease these transactional wheels.

I'm sure that is some of it, but there were plenty of future draft pick trades this year.  Far more than last summer or the summer before.  Boston's dump of Baynes, Golden State's dump of Iggy, Brooklyn dumping Crabbe (though they at least got Prince), Denver acquiring Grant, Westbrook/Paul trade, Brogdon sign and trade, Davis trade, George trade, Conley trade, Butler sign and trade, Russell/Durant sign and trade.  Just a lot of 1st round picks went flying around this summer and that doesn't even account for all the draft day, pure draft pick trades (like the Pelicans/Hawk trade).   

[obnoxiousmime]

It's not just GS going down that has opened up the field and emboldened teams, it's also the way Toronto won. They took a big risk on a star and were rewarded. That has given GMs more of an excuse to take the risk, because fans just saw it work. Even if they fail, the GM can feel a little protection from criticism.

Also, I think Pelinka really screwed it up for everybody. He is a desperate GM and even though there weren't other serious bidders, he totally overpaid. Once he set the market, other teams expected the same kind of haul.

[gift]

It's cyclical to some degree too. The more future 1sts tied up by teams holding their rights, the fewer are on the market... until they're cashed in or drafted.