Poll

Should the Celtics trade for AD?

Yes.  (Tatum in the deal)
22 (45.8%)
No.   (Not worth giving up assets for a one year rental)
18 (37.5%)
Yes but only if Tatum isn't in the deal.
8 (16.7%)

Total Members Voted: 48

Author Topic: Anthony Davis traded to Lakers(page 272)  (Read 144480 times)

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Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2760 on: May 20, 2019, 08:17:26 PM »

Online nickagneta

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We have gone over the way a sign and trade would go down with Rozier many, many, many times on this blog. It's extremely difficult to make the numbers work and would probably mean making the trade a whole lot larger. Rozier isn't going to be included in this deal like some think by just putting Rozier in for Smart. The money doesn't work that way.

Yes, but that was when we all thought that Rozier would get a big payday (like 15+ a year). I think it's not unrealistic to think that his offers will not be higher than 8-12 million range. In a sign-and-trade that means that the difference between incoming and outgoing salary is only 4 to 6 million (50% of salary counts as outgoing, 100% counts as incoming), which is workable (I've done the math).

Example (trading for Anthony Davis alone):

Jayson Tatum (7,83) + Robert Williams (1,94) + Guerschon Yabusele (3,12) + #14 pick (~ 2,58) + #20 pick (~ 1,93) + future Memphis pick + Rozier (sign and trade)
 
That means total outgoing salary (excluding Rozier) = 17,39 million

We don't know whether Davis would waive his trade kicker to play for the Celtics, so there are two possibilities (A and B).

A: minimum outgoing salary Celtics (Davis waives trade kicker): 27,09 / 1,25 = 21,67 million
A: maximum incoming salary Pelicans (Davis waives trade kicker): 27,09 * 1,25 = 33,87 million

B: minimum outgoing salary Celtics (Davis doesn't waive 15% trade kicker): 31,16 / 1,25 = 24,93 million
B: maximum incoming salary Pelicans (Davis doesn't waive 15% trade kicker): 31,16 * 1,25 = 38,95 million

In A, Terry Rozier can sign for 8,6 - 16,4 million a year (reasonable).
In B, Terry Rozier can sign for between 15,1 - 21,5 million a year, but if you'd include the #22 pick (~ 1,78) as well that would lower it to 11,5 - 19,7.

So moneywise it's possible to make such a deal (unless I made a mistake), but I agree it would be very hard to persuade Rozier's agent and the Pelicans to go along with such a construction. However I hope that the FO works very hard to accomplish it, since we can afford to lose Rozier but not Smart!
As I said, add a lot more to the deal and not just substituting Rozier for Smart. There is also the small problem of convincing NO they want to spend somewhere between $16.4 to $21.5 million a year for Rozier because your deal is about the minimum you are going to be able to give Rozier without just adding scrubs and picks for salary.

In a Tatum, Smart and picks, you most likely aren't sending the Memphis pick but you are definitely going to have to pay that to convince NO to think about taking on Rozier at those numbers.

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2761 on: May 25, 2019, 10:45:59 AM »

Offline No Nickname

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Here’s an historical look at superstar trades recently. I know AD is perhaps better than all of these guys “right now” but think about these other players at the time these trades were made.

On average, one rising young talent plus one first rounder below #20 and another average asset has been all it takes.

The ideas floated here are a HUGE overpayment for a player that could walk.

Article 1: https://www.lineups.com/articles/nba-superstar-trades-have-worked-out-better-than-you-think/

Article 2: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2018/07/24/how-pacers-paul-george-trade-compares-kawhi-leonard-other-superstar-deals/825350002/

When you look at the Paul George to the Thunder trade (Oladipo and Sabonis) that seems like a good baseline.

Brown or Tatum
Smart
#14 Pick
Filler

That’s my ABSOLUTE max.

If NO wants the Memphis pick, fine, I pull Smart from this.  And give them the Memphis pick, and Theis. And maybe, just maybe, to push it over the edge I’d add back the #14 pick.

Brown or Tatum
Theis
Memphis Pick
#14 Pick
Filler

Those are my two offers. Take it or leave it. New Orleans gets more than fair value.

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2762 on: May 25, 2019, 11:46:13 AM »

Offline Silky

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Here’s an historical look at superstar trades recently. I know AD is perhaps better than all of these guys “right now” but think about these other players at the time these trades were made.

On average, one rising young talent plus one first rounder below #20 and another average asset has been all it takes.

The ideas floated here are a HUGE overpayment for a player that could walk.

Article 1: https://www.lineups.com/articles/nba-superstar-trades-have-worked-out-better-than-you-think/

Article 2: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2018/07/24/how-pacers-paul-george-trade-compares-kawhi-leonard-other-superstar-deals/825350002/

When you look at the Paul George to the Thunder trade (Oladipo and Sabonis) that seems like a good baseline.

Brown or Tatum
Smart
#14 Pick
Filler

That’s my ABSOLUTE max.

If NO wants the Memphis pick, fine, I pull Smart from this.  And give them the Memphis pick, and Theis. And maybe, just maybe, to push it over the edge I’d add back the #14 pick.

Brown or Tatum
Theis
Memphis Pick
#14 Pick
Filler

Those are my two offers. Take it or leave it. New Orleans gets more than fair value.

I agree 100 percent.

The ideas getting floated in the media is to try and raisr the value of what lal can offer

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2763 on: May 25, 2019, 11:54:07 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Here’s an historical look at superstar trades recently. I know AD is perhaps better than all of these guys “right now” but think about these other players at the time these trades were made.

On average, one rising young talent plus one first rounder below #20 and another average asset has been all it takes.

The ideas floated here are a HUGE overpayment for a player that could walk.

Article 1: https://www.lineups.com/articles/nba-superstar-trades-have-worked-out-better-than-you-think/

Article 2: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2018/07/24/how-pacers-paul-george-trade-compares-kawhi-leonard-other-superstar-deals/825350002/

When you look at the Paul George to the Thunder trade (Oladipo and Sabonis) that seems like a good baseline.

Brown or Tatum
Smart
#14 Pick
Filler

That’s my ABSOLUTE max.

If NO wants the Memphis pick, fine, I pull Smart from this.  And give them the Memphis pick, and Theis. And maybe, just maybe, to push it over the edge I’d add back the #14 pick.

Brown or Tatum
Theis
Memphis Pick
#14 Pick
Filler

Those are my two offers. Take it or leave it. New Orleans gets more than fair value.

You're absolutely right. However it's difficult to match salaries. That's why I included Williams and #22 on top of your maximum offer (minus Theis). Yabusele and Rozier (don't want him back) are just filler for us.
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2764 on: May 25, 2019, 02:46:44 PM »

Offline Bobshot

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I doubt there is any bargaining here. NO will get what they want from the Celtics for AD. I don't see any other way Ainge is going to be able to keep Irving and take the team to the next level. And I still have my doubts with Stevens as coach unless he broadens the offense and defends the paint better. And it might do some good to break up this team, which has chemistry problems. I would add that an ex-player like Pierce needs to be added to the coaching staff.

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2765 on: May 25, 2019, 02:53:26 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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I doubt there is any bargaining here. NO will get what they want from the Celtics for AD. I don't see any other way Ainge is going to be able to keep Irving and take the team to the next level. And I still have my doubts with Stevens as coach unless he broadens the offense and defends the paint better. And it might do some good to break up this team, which has chemistry problems. I would add that an ex-player like Pierce needs to be added to the coaching staff.

And what is New Orleans going to do if we don't offer all our assets? Just keep Davis and let him walk for nothing next year?
They don't have all the leverage.
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2766 on: May 25, 2019, 03:00:15 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I doubt there is any bargaining here. NO will get what they want from the Celtics for AD. I don't see any other way Ainge is going to be able to keep Irving and take the team to the next level. And I still have my doubts with Stevens as coach unless he broadens the offense and defends the paint better. And it might do some good to break up this team, which has chemistry problems. I would add that an ex-player like Pierce needs to be added to the coaching staff.

like they assume in first take etc

Irving and CBS disconnect is about CBS wanting to get better as the season progresses

Irving and Lebron just wing it , in the regular season and then try in the playoffs.  But we saw what a disaster this "style" became this season

Just can't see Celts parting ways with CBS nor CBS getting "lazy"

IF AD is brought here, it will be for the cheap.... otherwise there is no point

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2767 on: May 26, 2019, 08:53:45 AM »

Offline No Nickname

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Here’s an historical look at superstar trades recently. I know AD is perhaps better than all of these guys “right now” but think about these other players at the time these trades were made.

On average, one rising young talent plus one first rounder below #20 and another average asset has been all it takes.

The ideas floated here are a HUGE overpayment for a player that could walk.

Article 1: https://www.lineups.com/articles/nba-superstar-trades-have-worked-out-better-than-you-think/

Article 2: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2018/07/24/how-pacers-paul-george-trade-compares-kawhi-leonard-other-superstar-deals/825350002/

When you look at the Paul George to the Thunder trade (Oladipo and Sabonis) that seems like a good baseline.

Brown or Tatum
Smart
#14 Pick
Filler

That’s my ABSOLUTE max.

If NO wants the Memphis pick, fine, I pull Smart from this.  And give them the Memphis pick, and Theis. And maybe, just maybe, to push it over the edge I’d add back the #14 pick.

Brown or Tatum
Theis
Memphis Pick
#14 Pick
Filler

Those are my two offers. Take it or leave it. New Orleans gets more than fair value.

You're absolutely right. However it's difficult to match salaries. That's why I included Williams and #22 on top of your maximum offer (minus Theis). Yabusele and Rozier (don't want him back) are just filler for us.

Totally agree. Maybe I shouldn’t have labeled them as such but I consider those “filler.”

I think the Kawhi Leonard trade will also be relevant. An All-NBA player on the last year of his contract, in his prime.

San Antonio got Demar Derozen, Jakob Poetl (16minutes per game, 5.5ppg, 5rpg) and a conditional first rounder.

Tatum is, due to youth, an almost equivalent to Derozen.  Smart trumps Poetl. And our #14 pick alone is miles better than Toronto’s #29 pick.

Add “filler” and that’s a fair deal.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2019, 09:10:52 AM by No Nickname »

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2768 on: May 26, 2019, 09:08:23 AM »

Offline JBcat

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Here’s an historical look at superstar trades recently. I know AD is perhaps better than all of these guys “right now” but think about these other players at the time these trades were made.

On average, one rising young talent plus one first rounder below #20 and another average asset has been all it takes.

The ideas floated here are a HUGE overpayment for a player that could walk.

Article 1: https://www.lineups.com/articles/nba-superstar-trades-have-worked-out-better-than-you-think/

Article 2: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2018/07/24/how-pacers-paul-george-trade-compares-kawhi-leonard-other-superstar-deals/825350002/

When you look at the Paul George to the Thunder trade (Oladipo and Sabonis) that seems like a good baseline.

Brown or Tatum
Smart
#14 Pick
Filler

That’s my ABSOLUTE max.

If NO wants the Memphis pick, fine, I pull Smart from this.  And give them the Memphis pick, and Theis. And maybe, just maybe, to push it over the edge I’d add back the #14 pick.

Brown or Tatum
Theis
Memphis Pick
#14 Pick
Filler

Those are my two offers. Take it or leave it. New Orleans gets more than fair value.

You're absolutely right. However it's difficult to match salaries. That's why I included Williams and #22 on top of your maximum offer (minus Theis). Yabusele and Rozier (don't want him back) are just filler for us.

Totally agree. Maybe I shouldn’t have labeled them as such but I consider those “filler.”

I think the Kawhi Leonard trade will also be relevant. An All-NBA player on the last year of his contract, in his prime.

San Antonio got Demar Derozen, Jakob Poetl (16minutes per game, 5.5ppg, 5rpg) and a conditional first rounder.

Tatum is, spdue to youth, an almost equivalent to Derozen.  Smart trumps Poetl. And our #14 pick alone is miles better than Toronto’s #29 pick.

Add “filler” and that’s a fair deal.

Not to mention the Raptors also got Danny Green in return.

However, with all this said it’s a tough comparison as Kawhi sat out most of last year, and his injury was a bit of a mystery.  Maybe that hampered his trade value?

Edit

I looked up Bill Simmons most recent rankings in February of his top 55 trade values, and he has Derozan at 37, and Tatum at 18.  Very interesting, but a lot of that probably has to do with Tatum’s current rookie scale contract, his restricted rights for his 2nd contract, and the talent to get better with youth on his side. Makes more sense for a rebuilding team.  He had Leonard at 10 probably that low because of his pending FA status, and Davis at 4.  I wonder where he would have ranked Leonard last summer after missing most of the previous season.

Interesting he had Kevin Knox at 34(that seems way too high), Ingram at 49 ( I think this was before his blood cot issue), Lonzo Ball at 53, and Jaylen Brown as honorable mention demoted from 44.   With Brown’s strong second half I’d put him above those 3 guys, easily.

The takeaway even if you’re not a Bill Simmons fan is Tatum has big appeal as a trade piece, and you see that when you look at other writers too.  We may not have to add much more if Tatum and Smart are the main pieces.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2019, 09:42:34 AM by JBcat »

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2769 on: May 26, 2019, 09:24:30 AM »

Offline No Nickname

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Here’s an historical look at superstar trades recently. I know AD is perhaps better than all of these guys “right now” but think about these other players at the time these trades were made.

On average, one rising young talent plus one first rounder below #20 and another average asset has been all it takes.

The ideas floated here are a HUGE overpayment for a player that could walk.

Article 1: https://www.lineups.com/articles/nba-superstar-trades-have-worked-out-better-than-you-think/

Article 2: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2018/07/24/how-pacers-paul-george-trade-compares-kawhi-leonard-other-superstar-deals/825350002/

When you look at the Paul George to the Thunder trade (Oladipo and Sabonis) that seems like a good baseline.

Brown or Tatum
Smart
#14 Pick
Filler

That’s my ABSOLUTE max.

If NO wants the Memphis pick, fine, I pull Smart from this.  And give them the Memphis pick, and Theis. And maybe, just maybe, to push it over the edge I’d add back the #14 pick.

Brown or Tatum
Theis
Memphis Pick
#14 Pick
Filler

Those are my two offers. Take it or leave it. New Orleans gets more than fair value.

You're absolutely right. However it's difficult to match salaries. That's why I included Williams and #22 on top of your maximum offer (minus Theis). Yabusele and Rozier (don't want him back) are just filler for us.

Totally agree. Maybe I shouldn’t have labeled them as such but I consider those “filler.”

I think the Kawhi Leonard trade will also be relevant. An All-NBA player on the last year of his contract, in his prime.

San Antonio got Demar Derozen, Jakob Poetl (16minutes per game, 5.5ppg, 5rpg) and a conditional first rounder.

Tatum is, spdue to youth, an almost equivalent to Derozen.  Smart trumps Poetl. And our #14 pick alone is miles better than Toronto’s #29 pick.

Add “filler” and that’s a fair deal.

Not to mention the Raptors also got Danny Green in return.

However, with all this said it’s a tough comparison as Kawhi sat out most of last year, and his injury was a bit of a mystery.  Maybe that hampered his trade value?

True, but Ujiri last night calling him “the best player in the league” raises his value in hindsight. It makes AD seem equivalent.

All that being said, at least you have a baseline with the Kawhi trade. 

It makes me think of the old story about Milton Berle. Supposedly he was one of the most well-endowed chaps in Hollywood. And occasionally other actors would be bold enough (if they were well-endowed too) to challenge him to a contest in terms of measurements.

So this one guy presents his trophy and the group of guys are astonished. Jacki Gleason was there and said “Come on Milt, only show him enough to win.”

So Berle then presents his and an even bigger gasp is heard as Milton was “more impressive” by an inch.

All Danny has to do is beat the next guy by an inch.

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2770 on: May 26, 2019, 09:32:08 AM »

Offline Silky

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I doubt there is any bargaining here. NO will get what they want from the Celtics for AD. I don't see any other way Ainge is going to be able to keep Irving and take the team to the next level. And I still have my doubts with Stevens as coach unless he broadens the offense and defends the paint better. And it might do some good to break up this team, which has chemistry problems. I would add that an ex-player like Pierce needs to be added to the coaching staff.

like they assume in first take etc

Irving and CBS disconnect is about CBS wanting to get better as the season progresses

Irving and Lebron just wing it , in the regular season and then try in the playoffs.  But we saw what a disaster this "style" became this season

Just can't see Celts parting ways with CBS nor CBS getting "lazy"

IF AD is brought here, it will be for the cheap.... otherwise there is no point

You keep naking things up.

There is no evidence of anything you posted but there is evidence that irving improved his passing, amount of passes amd time of possession this past season along with everything else.

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2771 on: May 26, 2019, 09:52:17 AM »

Offline gouki88

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I doubt there is any bargaining here. NO will get what they want from the Celtics for AD. I don't see any other way Ainge is going to be able to keep Irving and take the team to the next level. And I still have my doubts with Stevens as coach unless he broadens the offense and defends the paint better. And it might do some good to break up this team, which has chemistry problems. I would add that an ex-player like Pierce needs to be added to the coaching staff.

like they assume in first take etc

Irving and CBS disconnect is about CBS wanting to get better as the season progresses

Irving and Lebron just wing it , in the regular season and then try in the playoffs.  But we saw what a disaster this "style" became this season

Just can't see Celts parting ways with CBS nor CBS getting "lazy"

IF AD is brought here, it will be for the cheap.... otherwise there is no point

You keep naking things up.

There is no evidence of anything you posted but there is evidence that irving improved his passing, amount of passes amd time of possession this past season along with everything else.
You get used to it
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SF: Larry Bird / Mark Aguirre
PF: Karl Malone / Jerry Lucas / Andrei Kirilenko
C: Patrick Ewing / Bob Lanier

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2772 on: May 26, 2019, 10:20:59 AM »

Offline bellerephon

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NO position is not as strong as some seem to think. If Davis sticks to his position, they really need to trade him. They simply can't let him walk and get nothing in return. Now, if Davis backs off his position and is open to staying, they simply won't trade him at all.

But as it is they will need to take the best offer on the table. We can't really say what that will be, however, because we don't know how NO values the various players and picks. Do they think this  year's 4 is better than the Memphis pick? Do they like Tatum better than Ingram? Teams often do not value these things the same way fans and media do. Sac got killed by the media after the Cousins trade, but they said one reason they did it was that they really valued Buddy Hield, clearly more than most others did. It seems they were right. We can't actually know what value NO puts on each of these trade chips.

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2773 on: May 26, 2019, 10:23:22 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I doubt there is any bargaining here. NO will get what they want from the Celtics for AD. I don't see any other way Ainge is going to be able to keep Irving and take the team to the next level. And I still have my doubts with Stevens as coach unless he broadens the offense and defends the paint better. And it might do some good to break up this team, which has chemistry problems. I would add that an ex-player like Pierce needs to be added to the coaching staff.

like they assume in first take etc

Irving and CBS disconnect is about CBS wanting to get better as the season progresses

Irving and Lebron just wing it , in the regular season and then try in the playoffs.  But we saw what a disaster this "style" became this season

Just can't see Celts parting ways with CBS nor CBS getting "lazy"

IF AD is brought here, it will be for the cheap.... otherwise there is no point

You keep naking things up.

There is no evidence of anything you posted but there is evidence that irving improved his passing, amount of passes amd time of possession this past season along with everything else.

Are you and goukie88 oblivious about Kyrie crap on purpose?

Quote
"I can't wait for all this other B.S. about the regular season, keep getting better, talking over and over and over again about what we can do to keep getting better playing in the regular season," Irving said. "I just want to be at the highest level playing."

Re: Anthony Davis trade thread(Davis trade request page 33)
« Reply #2774 on: May 26, 2019, 11:03:29 AM »

Offline Silky

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I doubt there is any bargaining here. NO will get what they want from the Celtics for AD. I don't see any other way Ainge is going to be able to keep Irving and take the team to the next level. And I still have my doubts with Stevens as coach unless he broadens the offense and defends the paint better. And it might do some good to break up this team, which has chemistry problems. I would add that an ex-player like Pierce needs to be added to the coaching staff.

like they assume in first take etc

Irving and CBS disconnect is about CBS wanting to get better as the season progresses

Irving and Lebron just wing it , in the regular season and then try in the playoffs.  But we saw what a disaster this "style" became this season

Just can't see Celts parting ways with CBS nor CBS getting "lazy"

IF AD is brought here, it will be for the cheap.... otherwise there is no point

You keep naking things up.

There is no evidence of anything you posted but there is evidence that irving improved his passing, amount of passes amd time of possession this past season along with everything else.

Are you and goukie88 oblivious about Kyrie crap on purpose?

Quote
"I can't wait for all this other B.S. about the regular season, keep getting better, talking over and over and over again about what we can do to keep getting better playing in the regular season," Irving said. "I just want to be at the highest level playing."

That quote shows the kyrie was sick of talking about and instead wanted to be performing at top levels.

That is not a bad thing.

 

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