Western Conference Semis: Blazers (2) Vs Jazz (3)

[Fafnir]

PERK is better too and so is Noah. Duncan is as well. If Bogut played in a faster scheme then Skiles then he would not be as effective. Lower possession inflate his numbers.

Did lower possessions inflate Perk and KG's numbers as well?

Bogut scores out in adjusted plus/minus at near KG levels of defense as well this past year. Its a noisy stat but if you look at two years worth of data Bogut is up there as an elite defender.

[Kane3387]

Utah should start Thabo against Harden. Use Caron as the main wing off the bench.

From page one. Thabo will be seeing all his minutes at the two. Butler will only see 8 minutes at that position total.

I am a firm believe that changing the starting line-ups in the post season is a mistake. So I am keeping Butler and Big Al in there, but if you look at the minutes rotation they will see more time then ever as back-ups. Especially Butler who will sub-out around the 8 minute mark of the 1st and 3rd qtrs.

[indeedproceed]

Anyways enough about the 4 and the 5 IP. Is that all you can debate on?

ITS THE ONLY ARGUMENT I NEED, SHAWN!!!!!!

Let's focus on the 1,2,3 and the bench. This is where I clearly win.

Baron has the strength to not be bullied by Lowry. As my rankings show Baron did not hurt my "old" team so he must be buying in and be in pretty good shape. Something that didn't take place for the rebuilding Clippers and the worst coach in the NBA in Del Negro.

He goes to Byron Scott and an even worse team in Cleveland and they glow about him. He's healthier and happier. He is more appreciated and his role is not that of carrying the team.

Baron against Lowry in the playoffs is an advantage for utah. He is more experienced and plays better in the playoffs.

Funny you should say...all that. If you wanna talk rankings, well I was substantially ahead of you. And my team hinges heavily on Lowry replicating his success from late last season. So, assuming Lowry is at least as good as he was last season, its fair to assume he has similar results.

Now go check your box scores and look at Baron Davis's games against Kyle Lowry last season. (while Lowry was starting 71 games, with less explosive talent around him, and still ended up with a better record)

Baron averaged 22% and 29% shooting in those games. And I'm not talking about a 1-3 performance and a 16 performance where he didn't shoot a lot, so the shooting % didn't really matter.

He shot a combined 7-26 against starting Kyle Lowry last season, while Lowry dished more assists, grabbed more rebounds, and managed less turnovers.

On top of that, Lowry managed to shoot 9-20 over those two games (45%), while Baron Davis, again, shot 7-26.

Maybe you wanna go back to talking about Big Al now?

Butler and Thabo are better then Harden and Morrow. Thabo can shut down both of those guys and starts on his real team over Harden.

Its funny though, because during OKC's solid playoff run, how many games did Thabo play more minutes in than Harden? Because Harden averaged 30 minutes per game.

And while Thabo is a good defender, what else is he bringing? He can't spot up and shoot. He's not a gifted ball-handler. Basically all he does in OKC is wait around for the defense to start again.

I guess that's a good thing, because between Baron Davis being smothered by Lowry, Al Jefferson being annihilated by Bogut, and Sefelosha standing around, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are going to get plenty of chances to score 50 points a piece.

Butler will be able to produce for the 18 mpg he is in there.

The words you never said were "At the small forward position".

Derrick William has never played in an NBA game let alone a playoff game with KG barking at him. KG will take this rookie out of the game mentally. My whole TEAM will be talking and your inexperience and youth will show.

Well I will say this about KG, and Ive been very consistent here...KG is really good at yelling at rookies when he knows athletically he's not a match.

But is it me, or does it seem like those little kids get a little less scared of him each season?

Jamal Crawford is by far the best bench player in this series and the best SG in this series.

Hilarious

Pierce destroys Delfino.

This is a valid point. At some point in this series, Pierce will likely score 30+ points. I mean, he's going to have to since you don't have a point guard who can consistently distribute the ball, or a 2 guard to help facilitate the offense, or a center who can pass, but...between Pierce and Garnett there should be a fair amount of ball movement.

Haywood is the best back-up big man in this series.

Brendan Haywood is better than Robin Lopez.

[Fafnir]

Yeah and I have KG... I know I know Big Al is not Perk. Still Perk played Howard very well in 2008-09 and was insane in 2009-10. Perk plays great defense on Howard.

A wonderful pivot off of your flatly inaccurate statement where you say that Howard didn't produce in the playoffs, go look at Howard's games against Perk in the playoffs and regular season.

[Kane3387]

PERK is better too and so is Noah. Duncan is as well. If Bogut played in a faster scheme then Skiles then he would not be as effective. Lower possession inflate his numbers.

Did lower possessions inflate Perk and KG's numbers as well?

Bogut scores out in adjusted plus/minus at near KG levels of defense as well this past year. Its a noisy stat but if you look at two years worth of data Bogut is up there as an elite defender.

I don't disagree with not being very good, but I think elite is top 3 or 4. The coaches don't see Bogut as that way and they see how guys impact their offenses more then stats quantify sometimes.

I think Noah Chandler Howard Perk are all better defensive players overall. Bogut is good though.

Fafnir,

What about the bench and the match-ups at the 1, 2, and the 3? Thoughts on those?

[Who]

Utah should start Thabo against Harden. Use Caron as the main wing off the bench.

From page one. Thabo will be seeing all his minutes at the two. Butler will only see 8 minutes at that position total.

I am a firm believe that changing the starting line-ups in the post season is a mistake. So I am keeping Butler and Big Al in there, but if you look at the minutes rotation they will see more time then ever as back-ups. Especially Butler who will sub-out around the 8 minute mark of the 1st and 3rd qtrs.

Those 8 minutes from Caron would be better against Morrow than Harden.

In contrast, Thabo's court time would be more useful against Harden than Morrow.

[indeedproceed]

PERK is better too and so is Noah. Duncan is as well. If Bogut played in a faster scheme then Skiles then he would not be as effective. Lower possession inflate his numbers.

Did lower possessions inflate Perk and KG's numbers as well?

Bogut scores out in adjusted plus/minus at near KG levels of defense as well this past year. Its a noisy stat but if you look at two years worth of data Bogut is up there as an elite defender.

I don't disagree with not being very good, but I think elite is top 3 or 4. The coaches don't see Bogut as that way and they see how guys impact their offenses more then stats quantify sometimes.

All-NBA is as political as any other award in the NBA. In the same way that Derrick Rose didn't deserve the MVP, Andrew Bogut is what he is...the 2nd best defensive center in the NBA. You might not believe me, but you're trying to tell me Al Jefferson and Baron Davis, two of the softest most disappointing players of the last 5 years, are going to be difference makers.

I know what Bogut is, and so do people who watch him play. Read about it..look at what the sports writers are saying. And I'm not talking about his beat-writers..I'm talking about national guys. Nick had a valid point, factoring in the red-hot performance from the beginning of the year, Joakim Noah belongs in the conversation for elite defensive centers, and although I don't think Chandler's finals performance was indicative of his average level of play, (I pegged him to be the most overrated played this season) I do think he's fantastic too.

But if you ask people who watch the games across the league on a nightly basis, who know about these things better than you or I, Bogut will universally be acclaimed as a top defensive center.

[Fafnir]

PERK is better too and so is Noah. Duncan is as well. If Bogut played in a faster scheme then Skiles then he would not be as effective. Lower possession inflate his numbers.

Did lower possessions inflate Perk and KG's numbers as well?

Bogut scores out in adjusted plus/minus at near KG levels of defense as well this past year. Its a noisy stat but if you look at two years worth of data Bogut is up there as an elite defender.

I don't disagree with not being very good, but I think elite is top 3 or 4. The coaches don't see Bogut as that way and they see how guys impact their offenses more then stats quantify sometimes.

I stopped giving the coaches credit when they refused to stop voting for Kobe Bryant for first team defense. He would play 5 mins of good D a game and still get on the team......

Coaches don't really care about those awards and usually hand them off to assistants if they don't just check boxes quickly and move on.

Fafnir,

What about the bench and the match-ups at the 1, 2, and the 3? Thoughts on those?

I have Lowry ahead of Davis by a large margin. Davis is a chucker who won't get Pierce/KG/Big Al the ball enough and will disrupt the offense too readily.

I think Harden is the best SG in the series as well. He's a complete player and is superior to Thabo/Crawford/Butler.

Pierce has a huge advantage over Delfino

I think you have a advantage when it comes to bench players depth wise. But I don't like having Davis and Crawford taking up all your PG minutes. You don't have an unselfish facilitator at the positon on your roster, that's a problem. It puts a huge burden on Pierce and KG as they are the only willing passers who have any aptitude for it.

I think you have an advantage at the forward position as far as overall contribution, Portland as advantages at the 1, 2, and 5 position.

[Who]

Anticipated series rotation:

PG: Lowry 38/Sessions 10
SG: Harden 38/Morrow 10
SF: Delfino (Pierce)/Williams (no Pierce)
PF: Stoudemire 32/Jerebko (Jefferson)/Williams (Garnett-No-Jefferson)
C: Bogut 38/Stoudemire 6/Tolliver (whatever is left)

Jerebko can't guard Al Jefferson. He is completely over-matched physically.

Big Al is going to boss him around in the post and score at will.

[indeedproceed]

Anticipated series rotation:

PG: Lowry 38/Sessions 10
SG: Harden 38/Morrow 10
SF: Delfino (Pierce)/Williams (no Pierce)
PF: Stoudemire 32/Jerebko (Jefferson)/Williams (Garnett-No-Jefferson)
C: Bogut 38/Stoudemire 6/Tolliver (whatever is left)

Jerebko can't guard Al Jefferson. He is completely over-matched physically.

Big Al is going to boss him around in the post and score at will.

I think you're underestimating Jerebko, but I think I'd be better served with WIlliams getting most of those minutes.

[Who]

Anticipated series rotation:

PG: Lowry 38/Sessions 10
SG: Harden 38/Morrow 10
SF: Delfino (Pierce)/Williams (no Pierce)
PF: Stoudemire 32/Jerebko (Jefferson)/Williams (Garnett-No-Jefferson)
C: Bogut 38/Stoudemire 6/Tolliver (whatever is left)

Jerebko can't guard Al Jefferson. He is completely over-matched physically.

Big Al is going to boss him around in the post and score at will.

I think you're underestimating Jerebko, but I think I'd be better served with WIlliams getting most of those minutes.

I think you need to have Andrew Bogut on Big Al at all times. Nobody else on your roster can defend Big Al.

Hide Amare, D.Williams or Jerebko on B.Haywood.

[indeedproceed]

Anticipated series rotation:

PG: Lowry 38/Sessions 10
SG: Harden 38/Morrow 10
SF: Delfino (Pierce)/Williams (no Pierce)
PF: Stoudemire 32/Jerebko (Jefferson)/Williams (Garnett-No-Jefferson)
C: Bogut 38/Stoudemire 6/Tolliver (whatever is left)

Jerebko can't guard Al Jefferson. He is completely over-matched physically.

Big Al is going to boss him around in the post and score at will.

I think you're underestimating Jerebko, but I think I'd be better served with WIlliams getting most of those minutes.

I think you need to have Andrew Bogut on Big Al at all times.

Nobody else on your roster can defend Big Al.

Hide Amare, D.Williams or Jerebko on B.Haywood.

That's good advice. If Big Al and Haywood are in the series at the same time, and I can keep Bogut on Al, that leaves Williams or Stoudemire to absolutely demolish Haywood from the perimeter.

What do you think about involving Anthony Tolliver?

[Who]

Anticipated series rotation:

PG: Lowry 38/Sessions 10
SG: Harden 38/Morrow 10
SF: Delfino (Pierce)/Williams (no Pierce)
PF: Stoudemire 32/Jerebko (Jefferson)/Williams (Garnett-No-Jefferson)
C: Bogut 38/Stoudemire 6/Tolliver (whatever is left)

What do you think about involving Anthony Tolliver?

I don't think Tolliver adds much. I wouldn't use him.

I'd consider him a third stringer who can provide floor spacing if needed. Otherwise, if that specific skill wasn't needed, I wouldn't play him.

[Who]

I am a bit worried about D.Williams trying to defend Garnett.

A wily old vet who likes to beat up on rookies and undersized PFs vs an inexperienced undersized rookie with questionable defensive skills.

Not sure how effective D.Williams will be against KG on the other end of the floor either. Never in his life will have played against a guy with Garnett's physical + defensive talents. He has never had to face a seven footer with Garnett's length and ability to defend away from the basket.

-----------------------------------------

KG + Big Al = Amare + Bogut

Big + Haywood = Bogut + D.Williams

KG + Haywood = Amare + D.Williams and Amare + Bogut (since Bogut will play 8 minutes more than Big Al)

Plus, I'd use D.Williams against Jason Maxiell for the few minutes he is set to play.

-----------------------------------------

That is how I'd match up against Utah's front-line.

[celticpride07]

i like utah over portland