I clicked the NBA Lottery Machine 100 times (so you don't have to)

[KG Living Legend]

100 times???

Maybe a little bit too much time on your hands? Lol

It didn't take that long! Next time I get bored and do it I'm gonna note if the Lakers keep their picks and the lowest each prospect goes.

 That's kind of a small sample size. If your a true Celtic Legend you will do it again 1000 times

[positivitize]

Even if you did it 901 more times (there are 1001 combinations), it doesn't matter.

This isn't a "best of"... whatever happens that one time is what happens.

In two weeks we will finally have our answer. Let's enjoy the playoffs in the meantime.

Thanks for the reminder

[Ilikesports17]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

yeah, but as has been covered extensively the better way to look at it is this:
25% chance top 1
46% chance top 2
64% chance top 3
36% chance #4

[SHAQATTACK]

I predict we end up with Jackson .... the. average when I play is mostly 2 and 4 , so I'm averageing that to third  pick LOL

Suns and lakers take Fultz and Ball ....LOL ...so it's a non issue 

Danny takes Jackson over Tatum for third pick is my final word prediction .

[BitterJim]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Not quite. According to the odds, #4 is most likey with 35.7%, followed by #1 at 25%, then #2 at 21.5%, and finally #3 at 17.8%

Like I said before, its a matter of perspective. You could say that the odds are great we end up fourth, but I would say the odds are greater we would end up 1-3.

Agreed. #4 is most likely, but it's still more likely that we don't get #4. Just like we're the most likely team to get #1, but it's more likely that we don't get #1.

[droopdog7]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Look on the bright side: We'll know if we got the fourth pick well before we know if we got the first so, if we make it past that point, our next most-likely pick is the first.

BTW, am I the only person who thinks that DA takes Jackson at 2, not Ball?

Mike

Frankly, at this point you are in a decided minority if you think we'll pick Ball at #2.  I think Ball has fallen to #4 at best around these part, behin fultz, jackson, and tatum.

[positivitize]

Frankly, at this point you are in a decided minority if you think we'll pick Ball at #2.  I think Ball has fallen to #4 at best around these part, behin fultz, jackson, and tatum.

We're really lucky this year. While Fultz is my guy and I think the best player in the draft, after the only S tier prospect is off the table there are three LEGIT S- options in Ball, Tatum, and Jackson. Any one of who could very easily end up the best player in the draft. It's as close to a "no lose" situation as there can be on draft day--and it isn't even our losing record that nets us that pick! (Pun fully intended)

[86MaxwellSmart]

None of these "Odds" matter---because they assign the number combinations in numerical order.

[max215]

TP, you lunatic.

[mctyson]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Not quite. According to the odds, #4 is most likey with 35.7%, followed by #1 at 25%, then #2 at 21.5%, and finally #3 at 17.8%

Like I said before, its a matter of perspective. You could say that the odds are great we end up fourth, but I would say the odds are greater we would end up 1-3.

It is actually twice as likely that we end up 1-3 vs. 4th.

However, is most likely that we end up 3rd or 4th.

[GreenEnvy]

None of these "Odds" matter---because they assign the number combinations in numerical order.

I'm not sure that's true. I think teams are randomly assigned their % of combinations.

So it's not like Celtics have 0000-2499 or whatever.

[Boris Badenov]

None of these "Odds" matter---because they assign the number combinations in numerical order.

You don't have to put the word "odds" in quotes.

They're the odds. And how the league assigns the numerical combinations to different teams in differing numbers is in fact what creates the odds people are talking about.