Author Topic: Brown for Sabonis and a 1st? who says no  (Read 7613 times)

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Re: Brown for Sabonis and a 1st? who says no
« Reply #60 on: July 01, 2019, 11:30:23 AM »

Offline footey

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Brown is a crazy number of times better than Sabonis.

It like someone suggested PG13 for Kanter trade, stating that PG is a burden for cap space more than Kanter is.
While true it has no anchorage in team building sanity.
Lol, what? This hyperbole is especially funny because Sabonis is better than Kanter, while Brown is worse than PG by a massive amount. Brown has higher potential, but Sabonis is probably better right now and is at our most shallow position
I don't even know if Brown has higher potential.  I think he at best caps out as a Paul Pierce like career and player, while I think Sabonis can at best cap out as a Chris Webber like career and player.  In other words, pretty darn similar at their peak.  I do know that unlike Brown, Sabonis has continued to progress in all facets of the game in all 3 seasons and he out performed Brown last year in very similar roles for their teams.

As I've said many times, I'd trade Brown for Sabonis straight up as I do think that is just overall a better fit for the team with Sabonis playing a position of need and Brown being very redundant with Hayward, Tatum, and Smart.  Perhaps Brown ends up with a better career, but I can't see it so much better that I wouldn't make the trade to improve the team in the near term.

Without a doubt the fit is better. People hesitate here because of local bias, plus the feeling that Sabonis has about reached his peak, whereas Brown is just tapping into his potential.  And that last year for Brown should be discounted due to the wing surplus, team chemistry issues, etc.

Plus the comparison to Chris Webber seems a bit far fetched to me, even as his limit.
I don't see how anyone can say that Sabonis reached his peak given he made significant strides not only from year 1 to year 2 but also year 2 to year 3.  And it isn't just total numbers increasing, it is rates, efficiency, and advanced metrics.  Last year in about 25 mpg, he averaged 14.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 2.9 apg with a TS% of 63.  Even his defense has improved as he had a DRTG of 104 last year (to go along with his ORTG of 118). 

BTW, per 36 those stats equate to 20.4/13.5/4.9 which are significantly better than Chris Webber's career per 36 numbers (and are on par with Webber's prime seasons - a bit less scoring, but a better rebounder and passer).

They can say it because of the limits of his athleticism. He is an average athlete by NBA standards; actually probably a below average athlete in terms of speed, quickness, length relative to height, etc.  Brown, on the other hand, is the opposite; he is an athletic freak, especially in his quickness and speed, and has very good length relative to height.

Your arguments from a statistical POV are interesting and, to some, persuasive.  But when you take stat models to conclude that Sabonis is significantly better than Chris Webber, a Hall of Fame Finalist (who will probably eventually get in), I think something is missing in your analysis. It falls short. Some would say it is absurd.

Re: Brown for Sabonis and a 1st? who says no
« Reply #61 on: July 01, 2019, 11:52:39 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Brown is a crazy number of times better than Sabonis.

It like someone suggested PG13 for Kanter trade, stating that PG is a burden for cap space more than Kanter is.
While true it has no anchorage in team building sanity.
Lol, what? This hyperbole is especially funny because Sabonis is better than Kanter, while Brown is worse than PG by a massive amount. Brown has higher potential, but Sabonis is probably better right now and is at our most shallow position
I don't even know if Brown has higher potential.  I think he at best caps out as a Paul Pierce like career and player, while I think Sabonis can at best cap out as a Chris Webber like career and player.  In other words, pretty darn similar at their peak.  I do know that unlike Brown, Sabonis has continued to progress in all facets of the game in all 3 seasons and he out performed Brown last year in very similar roles for their teams.

As I've said many times, I'd trade Brown for Sabonis straight up as I do think that is just overall a better fit for the team with Sabonis playing a position of need and Brown being very redundant with Hayward, Tatum, and Smart.  Perhaps Brown ends up with a better career, but I can't see it so much better that I wouldn't make the trade to improve the team in the near term.

Without a doubt the fit is better. People hesitate here because of local bias, plus the feeling that Sabonis has about reached his peak, whereas Brown is just tapping into his potential.  And that last year for Brown should be discounted due to the wing surplus, team chemistry issues, etc.

Plus the comparison to Chris Webber seems a bit far fetched to me, even as his limit.
I don't see how anyone can say that Sabonis reached his peak given he made significant strides not only from year 1 to year 2 but also year 2 to year 3.  And it isn't just total numbers increasing, it is rates, efficiency, and advanced metrics.  Last year in about 25 mpg, he averaged 14.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 2.9 apg with a TS% of 63.  Even his defense has improved as he had a DRTG of 104 last year (to go along with his ORTG of 118). 

BTW, per 36 those stats equate to 20.4/13.5/4.9 which are significantly better than Chris Webber's career per 36 numbers (and are on par with Webber's prime seasons - a bit less scoring, but a better rebounder and passer).

They can say it because of the limits of his athleticism. He is an average athlete by NBA standards; actually probably a below average athlete in terms of speed, quickness, length relative to height, etc.  Brown, on the other hand, is the opposite; he is an athletic freak, especially in his quickness and speed, and has very good length relative to height.

Your arguments from a statistical POV are interesting and, to some, persuasive.  But when you take stat models to conclude that Sabonis is significantly better than Chris Webber, a Hall of Fame Finalist (who will probably eventually get in), I think something is missing in your analysis. It falls short. Some would say it is absurd.
I didn't say he was significantly better than Chris Webber (his stats were though).  I said a Chris Webber like career would be a reasonably comp if he hits his peak.  I did say he was a significantly better rebounder, which last year he was.  Webber was never much of a rebounder (career best TRB% was 16.7, which Sabonis not only eclipsed this season but his 2nd year as well).  Webber was a much better shot blocker than Sabonis will ever be, but other than that I do think that Sabonis could absolutely end up with a similar career to Webber if everything goes right for him.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 01:25:48 PM by Moranis »
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Idea: Sabonis & McDermott
« Reply #62 on: July 04, 2019, 03:55:42 AM »

Offline GreenlyGreeny

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Do you think the Celtics and Pacers would agree to either of these trades? Would you?

Option A) http://tradenba.com/trades/ryo6J4jgB

Why I think we should and would: Sabonis could develop into 2/3rds the player his dad was, which would be an all-star big. We need help in our front court. McBuckets screams Irish Celtics and provides good depth.

Why I think Indiana may agree: They do not want to pay Sabonis the big bucks next season and feel a logjam with Turner. Langford is an Indiana guy, too.

Option B) http://tradenba.com/trades/Bk68g4sgS

Why I think we should do it: I’m higher on Sabonis than Brown, particularly if I can maintain depth with McDermott. We have a logjam on the wing and if we’re going to overpay Sabonis or Brown, I’d opt for the big man since we’re committed to Hayward, hopefully have his successor in Langford, and I want to tell Tatum and Kemba this is their team and Sabonis is our third guy in our developing Big 3 that hopefully wins it all in 2-3 years.

Why I think Indiana would do it: Oladipo is coming back from injury and the logjam with Turner. They may be higher on Brown than Sabonis.


Re: Idea: Sabonis & McDermott
« Reply #63 on: July 04, 2019, 04:16:44 AM »

Offline mr. dee

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Wings are much more important than bigs in this era. Jaylen is a two-way wing player that still have lots of potential left and already provided great production in his 3 years despite a down season last year. You'd hardly find any cheap replacement who can provide these things close to elite level.

Re: Idea: Sabonis & McDermott
« Reply #64 on: July 04, 2019, 04:23:07 AM »

Offline GreenlyGreeny

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Wings are much more important than bigs in this era. Jaylen is a two-way wing player that still have lots of potential left and already provided great production in his 3 years despite a down season last year. You'd hardly find any cheap replacement who can provide these things close to elite level.

Is Brown really elite? I just don’t see it. I really don’t see him bringing more wins to this team than Sabonis, frankly. In fact, he may be the most overrated player in Celtics blog history. I just worry we’re going to get pinned down overpaying for him next summer when some lame team makes a ludicrous offer.

Re: Idea: Sabonis & McDermott
« Reply #65 on: July 04, 2019, 04:25:14 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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I really don't mean to sound snarky, but there has to be a way to filter, or search-check old threads.. this idea has been floated about a thousand times since February.
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Re: Idea: Sabonis & McDermott
« Reply #66 on: July 04, 2019, 05:03:31 AM »

Offline Somebody

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Wings are much more important than bigs in this era. Jaylen is a two-way wing player that still have lots of potential left and already provided great production in his 3 years despite a down season last year. You'd hardly find any cheap replacement who can provide these things close to elite level.

Is Brown really elite? I just don’t see it. I really don’t see him bringing more wins to this team than Sabonis, frankly. In fact, he may be the most overrated player in Celtics blog history. I just worry we’re going to get pinned down overpaying for him next summer when some lame team makes a ludicrous offer.
Is he not elite? His points per touch scoring is tops on our team even after such an up and down season that very likely muted his stats. Man to man defense is excellent with some work needed on team defense that is fixable. Can be a low or high usage player according to the situation, and doesn't suffer a huge dropoff (or at all) in efficiency when his usage is ramped up. What's overrated about him, aside from some jokes about him being the next MJ?
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: Idea: Sabonis & McDermott
« Reply #67 on: July 04, 2019, 05:41:46 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Why I think we should do it: I’m higher on Sabonis than Brown, particularly if I can maintain depth with McDermott. We have a logjam on the wing and if we’re going to overpay Sabonis or Brown, I’d opt for the big man since we’re committed to Hayward, hopefully have his successor in Langford, and I want to tell Tatum and Kemba this is their team and Sabonis is our third guy in our developing Big 3 that hopefully wins it all in 2-3 years.

So DA is going to do this because your higher on Sabonis than Brown?   I got news for you DA does not care what fans think.   I doubt either team would do this because they value their own players more than you do.   Brown has done more thus far in his career than Sabonis in terms of the playoffs.

Quote
Why I think Indiana would do it: Oladipo is coming back from injury and the logjam with Turner. They may be higher on Brown than Sabonis.

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