Tatum mvp type season?

[footey]

NBA.com’s updated MVP Ladder:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Donovan Mitchell
5. Ja Morant
6. Devin Booker
7. Nikola Jokic
8. Kevin Durant
9. Damian Lillard
10. Stephen Curry

Pretty reasonable overall.  My one quibble is I don't see Donovan Mitchell as that high.  I would have Jokic, Lillard, and Curry all above him.  I can see him in the discussion, but not quite that high.  Maybe something more like this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.  Luka Doncic
3.  Jayson Tatum
4.  Nikola Jokic
5.  Ja Morant
6.  Damian Lillard
7.  Stephen Curry
8.  Kevin Durant
9.  Donovan Mitchell
10. Devin Booker

For the record, I prefer Tatum to Doncic as the star to build around but I think Doncic would get more votes if the vote was held today.

Which is weird because the Mavs are hovering around .500. I get it, Doncic is the media darling and his game is next level, but if his team ends up in the 46-48 win area, I don't see how he gets MVP.

Tatum should be ranked higher than Luka not because his team has a better record (that can be explained as Tatum having more talented teammates); but because he is a much better TWO WAY player. 

[keevsnick]

Is he playing at an MVP level? Yes. Will he win it? Not if Luka keeps averaging 35 a game with a 61% TS and a nearly 40 usage.

His play making actually seems a little down to me, but that might just be because he been so efficient that passing is often the wrong play for him. The biggest difference from last year is he's shooting way more FT's, which is huge, but we'll also see if it keeps up. He's gone through streches where he shoots a lot before only to fall off.

Two things seem unsustainable to me. He's shooting 80% at the rim, he was 74% last year. 80% is like Giannis levels of finishing (granted, a much lower frequency but still). And 53% from long 2, where he's never been better than 42%. Both of those numbers will come down. But even if they do that might move him from like a 65% TS to a 61% or something like that, still elite at his usage. Basically if his FTr keeps up he'll b in the conversation and it would help alot if the c's finish with the 1 or 2 seed.

I'm not sure MVP voters look into the detail of stats, especially advanced stats, that you are here. I think they look generally at counting stats, team wins, clutch performances, the concept of importance to the team and how much media attention a player is getting.

A lot of players during MJ and Lebron's primes got tons of media attention for teams with outstanding seasons, but generally, MJ and Lebron had all the stats, especially advanced stats and were easily the best players in the league, but didn't get the wins.

If Boston wins the East with 57-60 wins, Tatum goes for 30/8/5, he has some huge national TV wins and continues to get lots of attention in the media, that's how he will win.

Ya I don't know about that, I think a lot of them do. Or maybe those are just the ones I listen.

MVP votes are complicated, there's no agreed on definition for what what makes an MVP. Tatum could do all that above and Doncic/Giannis might still win if they keep up what they're doing. I'd have him 3rd right now, so he's in the race.

[keevsnick]

NBA.com’s updated MVP Ladder:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Donovan Mitchell
5. Ja Morant
6. Devin Booker
7. Nikola Jokic
8. Kevin Durant
9. Damian Lillard
10. Stephen Curry

Pretty reasonable overall.  My one quibble is I don't see Donovan Mitchell as that high.  I would have Jokic, Lillard, and Curry all above him.  I can see him in the discussion, but not quite that high.  Maybe something more like this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.  Luka Doncic
3.  Jayson Tatum
4.  Nikola Jokic
5.  Ja Morant
6.  Damian Lillard
7.  Stephen Curry
8.  Kevin Durant
9.  Donovan Mitchell
10. Devin Booker

For the record, I prefer Tatum to Doncic as the star to build around but I think Doncic would get more votes if the vote was held today.

Which is weird because the Mavs are hovering around .500. I get it, Doncic is the media darling and his game is next level, but if his team ends up in the 46-48 win area, I don't see how he gets MVP.

Jokic just won the MVP last year with..... 48 wins. i think its very easy to see how he gets 48 wins and wins MVP. If his efficiency/usage is absurd and the team is good people will get caught up in on how much he's elevating a mediocre team, same thing that happened to jokic last year with all the injuries to the Nuggets.

If the offense stats end up anywhere near similar I'd take Tatum, because he's better defensively for sure. But the Celtics are a way better team than the Mavs, and I think there would have to be a gigantic difference in teams win for voters to hold that against Doncic. Which there might be, because that team isn't very good (imo).

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

NBA.com’s updated MVP Ladder:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Donovan Mitchell
5. Ja Morant
6. Devin Booker
7. Nikola Jokic
8. Kevin Durant
9. Damian Lillard
10. Stephen Curry

Pretty reasonable overall.  My one quibble is I don't see Donovan Mitchell as that high.  I would have Jokic, Lillard, and Curry all above him.  I can see him in the discussion, but not quite that high.  Maybe something more like this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.  Luka Doncic
3.  Jayson Tatum
4.  Nikola Jokic
5.  Ja Morant
6.  Damian Lillard
7.  Stephen Curry
8.  Kevin Durant
9.  Donovan Mitchell
10. Devin Booker

For the record, I prefer Tatum to Doncic as the star to build around but I think Doncic would get more votes if the vote was held today.

Which is weird because the Mavs are hovering around .500. I get it, Doncic is the media darling and his game is next level, but if his team ends up in the 46-48 win area, I don't see how he gets MVP.

I guess this goes back to a fundamental question: "What is the definition of Most Valuable Player?" Some people believe that MVP involves making your team really good, therefore a player on a mediocre or bad team shouldn't win MVP. But the counterargument to that is, "Well imagine how much worse this mediocre or bad team would be if they didn't have Player X."

In fact, that was a primary argument when Alex Rodriguez won MLB MVP with the Texas Rangers in 2003—the Rangers were only 71-91, but quite a few people argued that they would've been only, like, a 40-win team without A-Rod's league-leading 47 homers and .600 slugging %.

Different sport, of course, but I think all the major North American sports wrestle with the question "What makes an MVP?"

For the current NBA season, it could be argued (convincingly, I think) that a Celtics team without Tatum wouldn't suffer as much as a Mavs team without Doncic, because the Celtics have a more complete team, therefore Doncic is more valuable to the Mavs than Tatum is to the Celtics. Not saying that's how I see it, but I think that idea is out there.

[Vermont Green]

NBA.com’s updated MVP Ladder:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Donovan Mitchell
5. Ja Morant
6. Devin Booker
7. Nikola Jokic
8. Kevin Durant
9. Damian Lillard
10. Stephen Curry

Pretty reasonable overall.  My one quibble is I don't see Donovan Mitchell as that high.  I would have Jokic, Lillard, and Curry all above him.  I can see him in the discussion, but not quite that high.  Maybe something more like this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.  Luka Doncic
3.  Jayson Tatum
4.  Nikola Jokic
5.  Ja Morant
6.  Damian Lillard
7.  Stephen Curry
8.  Kevin Durant
9.  Donovan Mitchell
10. Devin Booker

For the record, I prefer Tatum to Doncic as the star to build around but I think Doncic would get more votes if the vote was held today.

Which is weird because the Mavs are hovering around .500. I get it, Doncic is the media darling and his game is next level, but if his team ends up in the 46-48 win area, I don't see how he gets MVP.

Tatum should be ranked higher than Luka not because his team has a better record (that can be explained as Tatum having more talented teammates); but because he is a much better TWO WAY player.

Regarding Doncic, I get it and agree.  Of course if Dallas ends up around 0.500, he will get fewer votes, drop down the list, but I don't think Dallas will be that average.  I think they are a good team.  Doncic is a great player.  I don't care that Tatum isn't a media darling.  And I would not trade him for Doncic (but Doncic is one of a very few that you would even consider trading him for).  I am just saying that Doncic is likely to get more MVP votes for whatever reason.  At least this season.  Maybe not as much so moving forward.

Here is last year's final vote:

Nikola Jokic, Nuggets                      875
Joel Embiid, 76ers                          706
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks        595
Devin Booker, Suns                         216
Luka Doncic, Mavericks                   146
Jayson Tatum, Celtics                       43
Ja Morant, Grizzlies                          10
Stephen Curry, Warriors                     4

This all seems reasonable fair to me with the exception of Booker.  I know he is the best player on a top team but I would have him below Morant and Curry in terms of his overall contribution to winning.  Embiid hasn't been good so far this year but I expect he will be back in the discussion before all is done.

[Ed Monix]

Jayson Tatum is the new NBA MVP favorite per BetOnline.ag

[Moranis]

NBA.com’s updated MVP Ladder:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Donovan Mitchell
5. Ja Morant
6. Devin Booker
7. Nikola Jokic
8. Kevin Durant
9. Damian Lillard
10. Stephen Curry

Pretty reasonable overall.  My one quibble is I don't see Donovan Mitchell as that high.  I would have Jokic, Lillard, and Curry all above him.  I can see him in the discussion, but not quite that high.  Maybe something more like this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.  Luka Doncic
3.  Jayson Tatum
4.  Nikola Jokic
5.  Ja Morant
6.  Damian Lillard
7.  Stephen Curry
8.  Kevin Durant
9.  Donovan Mitchell
10. Devin Booker

For the record, I prefer Tatum to Doncic as the star to build around but I think Doncic would get more votes if the vote was held today.

Which is weird because the Mavs are hovering around .500. I get it, Doncic is the media darling and his game is next level, but if his team ends up in the 46-48 win area, I don't see how he gets MVP.

I guess this goes back to a fundamental question: "What is the definition of Most Valuable Player?" Some people believe that MVP involves making your team really good, therefore a player on a mediocre or bad team shouldn't win MVP. But the counterargument to that is, "Well imagine how much worse this mediocre or bad team would be if they didn't have Player X."

In fact, that was a primary argument when Alex Rodriguez won MLB MVP with the Texas Rangers in 2003—the Rangers were only 71-91, but quite a few people argued that they would've been only, like, a 40-win team without A-Rod's league-leading 47 homers and .600 slugging %.

Different sport, of course, but I think all the major North American sports wrestle with the question "What makes an MVP?"

For the current NBA season, it could be argued (convincingly, I think) that a Celtics team without Tatum wouldn't suffer as much as a Mavs team without Doncic, because the Celtics have a more complete team, therefore Doncic is more valuable to the Mavs than Tatum is to the Celtics. Not saying that's how I see it, but I think that idea is out there.

Except the Mavericks are only 0.5 points per 100 possessions worse without Doncic in the game.  And last year Doncic's on/off differential per 100 possessions was a paltry +0.2. 

The simple reality is, whether Doncic plays or not really doesn't affect the Mavericks.  Conversely, when Tatum isn't in the game Boston is significantly worse.  Tatum's on/off differential is the 2nd worst of his career this year thus far, but it is still +5.2.  His career average is +8.6 and last year was his career best at +13.8 (which is elite). 

Tatum is quite simply more valuable to Boston than Doncic is to Dallas. 

[Ed Monix]

Jayson Tatum has regained the NBA scoring lead.

[Big333223]

For Tatum to win MVP, Celtics have to finish ahead of the Bucks in the standings. I think if the Bucks are the #1 seed, Giannis wins his 3rd MVP and Tatum maybe comes in 2nd.

[Ed Monix]

Jayson Tatum when defended by Luka Doncic:

15 PTS, 5-8 FG, 1:57 matchup time

Luka when defended by Tatum:

2 PTS, 1-2 FG, 2 TO, 1 BLK, 1:12

NBA tracking had Celtics scoring 31 points on 12-19 FG vs Luka. Tatum allowed 6 points on 3-5 FG, 2 BLK

—————————

Source: Chris Forsberg

[Who]

Tatum has moved into that peak-Kawhi level this season.

[blink]

I haven't been super keen on all the MVP talk for Tatum, up to now I just didn't think he was really there.

But I have to say, I don't think anyone else is playing better overall than him.  The game against the mavs was a great showcase for his two-way play.  If he keeps up the 30+ ppg and the def and playmaking, and the celtics finish as the best or close to the best team in the NBA, he has a legit shot at it.

If we continue this type of play, I could see Tatum as MVP and Brown as 3rd team all-nba. 

[Ed Monix]

Jayson Tatum when defended by Luka Doncic:

15 PTS, 5-8 FG, 1:57 matchup time

Luka when defended by Tatum:

2 PTS, 1-2 FG, 2 TO, 1 BLK, 1:12

NBA tracking had Celtics scoring 31 points on 12-19 FG vs Luka. Tatum allowed 6 points on 3-5 FG, 2 BLK

—————————

Source: Chris Forsberg

[Sophomore]

Jayson Tatum when defended by Luka Doncic:

15 PTS, 5-8 FG, 1:57 matchup time

Luka when defended by Tatum:

2 PTS, 1-2 FG, 2 TO, 1 BLK, 1:12

NBA tracking had Celtics scoring 31 points on 12-19 FG vs Luka. Tatum allowed 6 points on 3-5 FG, 2 BLK

—————————

Source: Chris Forsberg

Telling stats, telling vid.

[Ed Monix]

Tatum’s defensive compilation from this season



—————————

Source: Jake Issenberg