Author Topic: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)  (Read 187342 times)

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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #165 on: September 13, 2013, 11:54:28 AM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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Here's the problem I have with this series:

One team is relying on a 38 year old Kevin Garnett to be its lynchpin to victory, while the other team is relying on Serge Ibaka to be its second best player, and Monta Ellis to be a consistent scorer.

I don't think any one of those three things are possible.
Of these two I place the Ibaka thing as the more likely one. After all we've seen LeBron with limited supported casts be a true contender. (Cleveland)

Al Horford with a similar level supporting cast with the Hawks has been trounced in the early playoffs repeatedly and its been ugly.

But as IP says, neither scenario seems all that likely to me.

But have we seen LeBron with limited supporting casts win?

I think I've already explained why Horford's supporting cast is better with these Cavs than with any Hawks team.

And as for these scenarios you guys are discussing... I've heard some people say that neither team seems like a "championship" team. But I'd ask you to remember how much parity there was in this league, and how that didn't allow for the building of super-teams.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #166 on: September 13, 2013, 11:57:05 AM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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The efficiency numbers for Cleveland's starters in their most recent playoffs:

Horford: .560 TS%
Garnett: .563 TS%
Wallace: .554 TS%
Allen:   .512 TS%
Lawson:  .549 TS%

Again, contrast that with Minnesota:

Jorday:  .424 TS% (again, !!!)
Ibaka: .484 TS%
Lebron: .585 TS%
Ellis:  .459 TS%
Bradley: .457 TS%

Lebron is the best player in the series.  His supporting cast is beyond terrible, though.  Lebron isn't Hercules; he's not winning jack unless his teammates contribute.

Don't forget Landry either, who posted a .578 TS%. And let's have a peek at PER in last year's playoffs...

Garnett 17.3 PER
Horford 19.1 PER
Lawson 20.4 PER
Landry 21.3 PER
T.Allen 17.7 PER

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #167 on: September 13, 2013, 11:58:55 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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The efficiency numbers for Cleveland's starters in their most recent playoffs:

Horford: .560 TS%
Garnett: .563 TS%
Wallace: .554 TS%
Allen:   .512 TS%
Lawson:  .549 TS%

Again, contrast that with Minnesota:

Jorday:  .424 TS% (again, !!!)
Ibaka: .484 TS%
Lebron: .585 TS%
Ellis:  .459 TS%
Bradley: .457 TS%

Lebron is the best player in the series.  His supporting cast is beyond terrible, though.  Lebron isn't Hercules; he's not winning jack unless his teammates contribute.

Don't forget Landry either, who posted a .578 TS%. And let's have a peek at PER in last year's playoffs...

Garnett 17.3 PER
Horford 19.1 PER
Lawson 20.4 PER
Landry 21.3 PER
T.Allen 17.7 PER

Well there you go.

My first impression was that Cleveland would win.  Actually digging into the numbers, I think that Cleveland would win fairly easily.  I'm subject to a little bit of Lebron bias myself, but he can't do it alone.


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #168 on: September 13, 2013, 12:10:24 PM »

Offline Who

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LeBron + Ibaka + Monta > Horford + Garnett + Ty Lawson

Which team's core would you prefer on your team next season and for next season alone? Which gives you the greater chance at winning? If you could have either trio here in Boston who do you choose?

For me, it is definitely LeBron and friends. As weak as LeBron's supporting stars are, for my money Minnesota's three man core is still superior to Cleveland's.

It's true, Minnesota are not a great team. But neither is Cleveland.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #169 on: September 13, 2013, 12:10:50 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I get that it supports the case of your side, but using deliberately small samples (playoffs) is a poor way to evaluate players when you have so much more information.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #170 on: September 13, 2013, 12:11:25 PM »

Offline Who

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I am not convinced Cleveland's size can punish Minnesota down in the paint when Minnesota goes small.

When Minnesota goes small and spreads out the floor enabling LeBron and Monta to get to the rim, I am not convinced Cleveland has the rim protection to deny them.

That for me is the series.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #171 on: September 13, 2013, 12:14:33 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I get that it supports the case of your side, but using deliberately small samples (playoffs) is a poor way to evaluate players when you have so much more information.

I disagree strongly.  The playoffs are a different brand of basketball, where you're generally facing better defenses, the pressure is higher, etc.

I think that ignoring playoff stats is intentionally leaving out a very important piece of the overall puzzle.

I mean, is it a coincidence that Monta Ellis has only been to the playoffs twice, and he stunk it up both times?  What about DeAndre Jordan, who has looked terrible both times he's been to the playoffs?  What about Avery Bradley, who has looked overmatched both times he's been the playoffs?

If a guy consistently struggles in the playoffs, I think it's fair to predict that they'll probably continue to struggle there. 


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #172 on: September 13, 2013, 12:17:09 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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LeBron + Ibaka + Monta > Horford + Garnett + Ty Lawson

Which team's core would you prefer on your team next season and for next season alone? Which gives you the greater chance at winning? If you could have either trio here in Boston who do you choose?

For me, it is definitely LeBron and friends. As weak as LeBron's supporting stars are, for my money Minnesota's three man core is still superior to Cleveland's.

It's true, Minnesota are not a great team. But neither is Cleveland.

If you're rebuilding / adding to your team, you're always going to want Lebron.

However, when assessing series, you don't just look at which team has the top player, or even the top trio.  If you did that in the real NBA, Lebron would have won since about 2006.


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #173 on: September 13, 2013, 12:20:31 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Here's the problem I have with this series:

One team is relying on a 38 year old Kevin Garnett to be its lynchpin to victory, while the other team is relying on Serge Ibaka to be its second best player, and Monta Ellis to be a consistent scorer.

I don't think any one of those three things are possible.

I'm surprised that many voters seem to be low on Horford and Lawson. 

I'm also surprised to see many voters who usually are pretty savvy when it comes to analytics and efficiency turn their back on those numbers in favor of the Lebron win button.



First of all, if irony were made of strawberries, we'd all be drinking a lot of smoothies right now.

Secondly, I want to know if the, "usually you guys are super smart when it comes to this stuff. I'm just really surprised you're so dumb about it right now" argumentative tactic is a winner. It's complisult, and a fine one.

Thirdly, what's the better bet: Betting on Lebron to pull a uninspired cast of misfits and ne'er-do-wells kicking and screaming through their ceiling and out the other side, or a cast of second-tier stars coming together through a grueling playoff run and coming out as improbable winners against the best basketball player on the planet?

Cuz I mean, I really, really don't like the Minnesota team. But at the same time I don't think the Cleveland team is all that great. I guess I have an easier time thinking that the defense from KG and Horford and heroic efforts from Ty Lawson (career 56% shooter against Bradley, with some big games where both guys played big minutes), and average production from Horford/Garnett offensively..I dunno.


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #174 on: September 13, 2013, 12:23:10 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I disagree with you on that Roy. Most players playoff numbers are pretty well in line with their overall regular season numbers, with a moderate decline commensurate with the tougher brand of defensive played.

But its a very small sample size, so what you get are wild variations that go with that decline. Assigning meaning to those fluctuations is the worse misuse of statistics.

Is Tony really a 17.7 PER playoff guy? If so why wasn't he in the past playoffs? Has his game changed that much?

Or did he just have a good shooting 15 games along with an outstanding rebounding 15 games (12.9 from a SG!) Meanwhile in past playoffs you can see he's more in line with his career, and so are his overall playoff numbers.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #175 on: September 13, 2013, 12:28:52 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Here's the problem I have with this series:

One team is relying on a 38 year old Kevin Garnett to be its lynchpin to victory, while the other team is relying on Serge Ibaka to be its second best player, and Monta Ellis to be a consistent scorer.

I don't think any one of those three things are possible.

I'm surprised that many voters seem to be low on Horford and Lawson. 

I'm also surprised to see many voters who usually are pretty savvy when it comes to analytics and efficiency turn their back on those numbers in favor of the Lebron win button.



First of all, if irony were made of strawberries, we'd all be drinking a lot of smoothies right now.

Secondly, I want to know if the, "usually you guys are super smart when it comes to this stuff. I'm just really surprised you're so dumb about it right now" argumentative tactic is a winner. It's complisult, and a fine one.

Thirdly, what's the better bet: Betting on Lebron to pull a uninspired cast of misfits and ne'er-do-wells kicking and screaming through their ceiling and out the other side, or a cast of second-tier stars coming together through a grueling playoff run and coming out as improbable winners against the best basketball player on the planet?

Cuz I mean, I really, really don't like the Minnesota team. But at the same time I don't think the Cleveland team is all that great. I guess I have an easier time thinking that the defense from KG and Horford and heroic efforts from Ty Lawson (career 56% shooter against Bradley, with some big games where both guys played big minutes), and average production from Horford/Garnett offensively..I dunno.

I'll say the same thing I argued last year:  it's always disappointing to see any voter cast a ballot based only on surface arguments.

I think the idea that Lebron can, by himself, carry a bunch of below-average players with *terrible* efficiency to a title is silly.  It has ZERO basis in reality.  None, at all.  Both in real life and the CB Draft, to win Lebron has needed to have good players around him. 

But, the problem with the CB Draft in general is that many people are busy, and don't have the time to read the various arguments, or to spend a lot of time thinking about it.  They're going to vote based upon conventional wisdom, or their own preconceived biases.

So, what you get is the Win Button.  It's a credit to you last year that you constructed a team that was good enough to go down to the wire with a Lebron squad that had another star player, a very good defense, and a very efficient offense.  Most years from now on, that will never happen, because people just assume "Lebron = win".  Even when Lebron's top five teammates all have a TS% below .485.

As for the "you're too stupid" argument, it probably comes across like that.  It's genuine disappointment.  I see bright, informed voters use analytics every day in these forums, and many of them are slaves to efficiency (in a good way).  When we get to the CB Draft, though, that sometimes goes out the window.  It's kind of a stomach punch seeing stuff like that, because I expect more.  At the very least, give some vigorous, reasoned debate, you know?  So, I apologize if it comes across as insulting, but I don't really retract it.  A lot of the arguments that have been advanced this week to justify votes have been ultra-weak.  I guess that's better than those who vote without commenting, but I guess I expect more.  (And for the record, that doesn't include everyone who disagrees with me.  Several voters have spent a ton of time explaining their reasoning.)
« Last Edit: September 13, 2013, 12:34:21 PM by Roy H. »


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #176 on: September 13, 2013, 12:29:33 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Secondly, I want to know if the, "usually you guys are super smart when it comes to this stuff. I'm just really surprised you're so dumb about it right now" argumentative tactic is a winner. It's complisult, and a fine one.
I think this is very well said. This has been a kinder draft, but this has been thrown around too much.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #177 on: September 13, 2013, 12:31:09 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I disagree with you on that Roy. Most players playoff numbers are pretty well in line with their overall regular season numbers, with a moderate decline commensurate with the tougher brand of defensive played.

But its a very small sample size, so what you get are wild variations that go with that decline. Assigning meaning to those fluctuations is the worse misuse of statistics.

Is Tony really a 17.7 PER playoff guy? If so why wasn't he in the past playoffs? Has his game changed that much?

Or did he just have a good shooting 15 games along with an outstanding rebounding 15 games (12.9 from a SG!) Meanwhile in past playoffs you can see he's more in line with his career, and so are his overall playoff numbers.

Take regular season numbers, then.  Do you think any lineup that features DeAndre Jordan, Avery Bradley, and Monta Ellis would be successful, especially in high pressure situations?


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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #178 on: September 13, 2013, 12:47:09 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I think the idea that Lebron can, by himself, carry a bunch of below-average players with *terrible* efficiency to a title is silly.  It has ZERO basis in reality.  None, at all.  Both in real life and the CB Draft, to win Lebron has needed to have good players around him.

But, the problem with the CB Draft in general is that many people are busy, and don't have the time to read the various arguments, or to spend a lot of time thinking about it.  They're going to vote based upon conventional wisdom, or their own preconceived biases.

So, what you get is the Win Button.  It's a credit to you last year that you constructed a team that was good enough to go down to the wire with a Lebron squad that had another star player, a very good defense, and a very efficient offense.  Most years from now on, that will never happen, because people just assume "Lebron = win".  Even when Lebron's top five teammates all have a TS% below .485.

Okay, but what you're arguing here (with this comment) is that Minny's team isn't good enough to win a title, but not necessarily that Minny's team isn't good enough to win a series against this Cleveland team, and that's the exact case I find myself in.

I actually wonder how close the voting would really be if this were a first round or second round matchup. I kind of think Minny would skate fairly easily, because flat out, LeBron James doesn't lose in the first round. That's just history.

Quote
As for the "you're too stupid" argument, it probably comes across like that.  It's genuine disappointment.  I see bright, informed voters use analytics every day in these forums, and many of them are slaves to efficiency (in a good way).  When we get to the CB Draft, though, that sometimes goes out the window.  It's kind of a stomach punch seeing stuff like that, because I expect more.  At the very least, give some vigorous, reasoned debate, you know?  So, I apologize if it comes across as insulting, but I don't really retract it.  A lot of the arguments that have been advanced this week to justify votes have been ultra-weak.  I guess that's better than those who vote without commenting, but I guess I expect more.  (And for the record, that doesn't include everyone who disagrees with me.  Several voters have spent a ton of time explaining their reasoning.)

No I actually want to know if it works. I've seen you say it a few times now, and I'm curious as to if its worked out. I'll put it in my arsenal of ready to go rebuttals.

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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #179 on: September 13, 2013, 12:54:12 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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No I actually want to know if it works. I've seen you say it a few times now, and I'm curious as to if its worked out. I'll put it in my arsenal of ready to go rebuttals.

I don't think it works.  I just keep hoping I get through to you.  You're like my CB Draft protegee, the guy who needs to carry the torch after I'm gone.  You've already got the drafting and marketing parts down.  Now, I need to pound into you the importance of mentally simulating these series to see how they'd turn out. 

Last year, you lost because you were soft in the middle.  This year, Minnesota should lose because their efficiency is terrible.  Those are core tenets of team construction.  Play good defense especially in the interior, rebound the ball, score efficiently.  Teams that suffer in one of those areas are vulnerable.  Here I like Cleveland better.  (I bet that if you ran each team through basketball-reference's "four factors" on offense and defense that Cleveland would come out ahead, Lebron or no Lebron.)

So, study up, young padawan.  I won't be here forever (in my $6,500 suit). ;)


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