2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)

[fairweatherfan]

LeBron James is a career 43.2% shooter against the Clippers. Someone explain that to me.

Being in LA plus frequent Lakers/Clippers two-game stands?  Could be a lot of letdown games in that mix.

[indeedproceed]

LeBron James is a career 43.2% shooter against the Clippers. Someone explain that to me.

Being in LA plus frequent Lakers/Clippers two-game stands?  Could be a lot of letdown games in that mix.

Yeah, that seems the most likely. I keep trying to find a series of games where Lebron has played poorly despite no elite defender getting in his way, and I can't find any.

[fitzhickey]

My view on this is that both teams are amongst the best defensive teams in this game. So therefore, I see a lot of low scoring affairs.

But if that's the case, obviously Lebron is going to get his but who else on an offensively challenged Timberwolves squad is going to get any more? I think the Cavs have enough more offensive versatility than the Wolves. The Cavs can get 15 points a night from 5 different guys(Lawson, KG, Landry, Horford, Crawford) and maybe more from some, whereas the TWolves have Lebron and Ellis if he is chucking that will score against this tough Cavs defense.

I just feel the balanced scoring, as good if not better defense and the very obvious dominance of the boards makes Cleveland the team to beat.

Defense and rebounding, especially if you can have balanced scoring and the opposition has to shut down a whole team and not just one or possibly two guys.

Ditto
You read my mind

[bfrombleacher]

I'm not the first to notice KG in Cleveland and LeBron in Minny, right?

[Roy H.]

LeBron James is a career 43.2% shooter against the Clippers. Someone explain that to me.

Being in LA plus frequent Lakers/Clippers two-game stands?  Could be a lot of letdown games in that mix.

Yeah, that seems the most likely. I keep trying to find a series of games where Lebron has played poorly despite no elite defender getting in his way, and I can't find any.

In this series, though, there will be three elite defenders in his way (Wallace, Allen, KG).

[Roy H.]

This argument seems about dead, but I have another question (even though my others have been unanswered):

Could any player, even one as good as Lebron, overcome these 2013 playoff performances from the other four starters?

2012-13 playoffs:

DeAndre Jordan:  3.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, .424 TS% (!!!)
Serge Ibaka: 12.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, .484 TS%
Avery Bradley:  6.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.8 turnovers, .457 TS%
Monta Ellis:  14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 turnovers, .459 TS%

It's the lack of efficiency that blows my mind.  A true shooting percentage below .500 is considered to be very, very bad.  Here, all four of the Minnesota starters shot below that number in the most recent playoffs.

Or, if you prefer have everything laid out for you in one number:

Playoff PER:

Ellis: 12.3
Ibaka: 17.1
Jordan: 7.3
Bradley: 6.7

The average PER is 15.0, which includes all players in the NBA.  Presumably, the PER of a starter would be in most cases higher than that average, since starters should have higher averages than end of bench players.  Regardless, only Ibaka rates out as above average, due primarily to his blocked shots.  Ellis, and especially Jordan and Bradley, are well-below average.

Lebron was fantastic in last year's playoffs, but even he can't overcome horrific performances like the above.

[sofutomygaha]

This argument seems about dead, but I have another question (even though my others have been unanswered):

Could any player, even one as good as Lebron, overcome these 2013 playoff performances from the other four starters?

2012-13 playoffs:

DeAndre Jordan:  3.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, .424 TS% (!!!)
Serge Ibaka: 12.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, .484 TS%
Avery Bradley:  6.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.8 turnovers, .457 TS%
Monta Ellis:  14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 turnovers, .459 TS%

It's the lack of efficiency that blows my mind.  A true shooting percentage below .500 is considered to be very, very bad.  Here, all four of the Minnesota starters shot below that number in the most recent playoffs.

Or, if you prefer have everything laid out for you in one number:

Playoff PER:

Ellis: 12.3
Ibaka: 17.1
Jordan: 7.3
Bradley: 6.7

The average PER is 15.0, which includes all players in the NBA.  Presumably, the PER of a starter would be in most cases higher than that average, since starters should have higher averages than end of bench players.  Regardless, only Ibaka rates out as above average, due primarily to his blocked shots.  Ellis, and especially Jordan and Bradley, are well-below average.

Lebron was fantastic in last year's playoffs, but even he can't overcome horrific performances like the above.

that's an excellent post, right there

[fairweatherfan]

Playoff PER:

Ellis: 12.3
Ibaka: 17.1
Jordan: 7.3
Bradley: 6.7

The average PER is 15.0, which includes all players in the NBA.  Presumably, the PER of a starter would be in most cases higher than that average, since starters should have higher averages than end of bench players.  Regardless, only Ibaka rates out as above average, due primarily to his blocked shots.  Ellis, and especially Jordan and Bradley, are well-below average.

Lebron was fantastic in last year's playoffs, but even he can't overcome horrific performances like the above.

Interesting numbers.  Sounds like he should consider starting Big Baby, who had an 18.8 PER in his last playoff trip.   

[Roy H.]

Playoff PER:

Ellis: 12.3
Ibaka: 17.1
Jordan: 7.3
Bradley: 6.7

The average PER is 15.0, which includes all players in the NBA.  Presumably, the PER of a starter would be in most cases higher than that average, since starters should have higher averages than end of bench players.  Regardless, only Ibaka rates out as above average, due primarily to his blocked shots.  Ellis, and especially Jordan and Bradley, are well-below average.

Lebron was fantastic in last year's playoffs, but even he can't overcome horrific performances like the above.

Interesting numbers.  Sounds like he should consider starting Big Baby, who had an 18.8 PER in his last playoff trip.   

FWF:  raising Roy H.'s blood pressure since 2008.

(I'd note BBD had a .481 TS% despite the respectable PER, but I'm assuming your post was in jest.)

[AB_Celtic]

I hope everyone pays attention to the numbers Roy posted. As scary good as LeBron James is, basketball is a team sport and LeBron is by himself on this Minnesota team in these finals.

And as always, I'm here to answer your questions.

[indeedproceed]

Here's the problem I have with this series:

One team is relying on a 38 year old Kevin Garnett to be its lynchpin to victory, while the other team is relying on Serge Ibaka to be its second best player, and Monta Ellis to be a consistent scorer.

I don't think any one of those three things are possible.

[Roy H.]

Any time there's a Lebron team in these CB Drafts, the team inevitably gets compared to Lebron's Cavaliers teams.

Well, for comparison sake, in 2010 only four of Lebron's teammates posted a TS% below .500, and those players played very, very few minutes (about 2.5 minutes per game each).

Here, almost every rotation player on Minnesota posted a TS% of below .500 in their most recent playoffs.  Ellis, Ibaka, Bradley, Jordan, BBD, Battier.  Even the guys with decent efficiency, like Korver and Chalmers, shot low percentages from the field (38.8% and 41.5%, respectively).  That's going to lead to a lot of rebounds for the Cavaliers.

[Fafnir]

Here's the problem I have with this series:

One team is relying on a 38 year old Kevin Garnett to be its lynchpin to victory, while the other team is relying on Serge Ibaka to be its second best player, and Monta Ellis to be a consistent scorer.

I don't think any one of those three things are possible.

Of these two I place the Ibaka thing as the more likely one. After all we've seen LeBron with limited supported casts be a true contender. (Cleveland)

Al Horford with a similar level supporting cast with the Hawks has been trounced in the early playoffs repeatedly and its been ugly.

But as IP says, neither scenario seems all that likely to me.

[Roy H.]

Here's the problem I have with this series:

One team is relying on a 38 year old Kevin Garnett to be its lynchpin to victory, while the other team is relying on Serge Ibaka to be its second best player, and Monta Ellis to be a consistent scorer.

I don't think any one of those three things are possible.

I'm surprised that many voters seem to be low on Horford and Lawson. 

I'm also surprised to see many voters who usually are pretty savvy when it comes to analytics and efficiency turn their back on those numbers in favor of the Lebron win button.

[Roy H.]

The efficiency numbers for Cleveland's starters in their most recent playoffs:

Horford: .560 TS%
Garnett: .563 TS%
Wallace: .554 TS%
Allen:   .512 TS%
Lawson:  .549 TS%

Again, contrast that with Minnesota:

Jorday:  .424 TS% (again, !!!)
Ibaka: .484 TS%
Lebron: .585 TS%
Ellis:  .459 TS%
Bradley: .457 TS%

Lebron is the best player in the series.  His supporting cast is beyond terrible, though.  Lebron isn't Hercules; he's not winning jack unless his teammates contribute.