Author Topic: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet  (Read 15831 times)

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Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #45 on: June 09, 2023, 12:36:06 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Is there a better way? 

Trade Gallo and Pritchard taking back little in money (looking for a draft pick).

Certainly Gallo should be on the block if it can upgrade the team. 

I think the concern is more about long-term salary that will be on our books, though.  Even if the salary cap jumps 10% every year (the maximum), and even when Gallo/Pritchard/Muscala are off the books, it's going to be tough to afford all of Brown, Smart, White, Brogdon and Grant.

Once Brown is on the books for $50M and up and Tatum is on the books for $60M and up, the team is going to have cap issues almost no matter what they do with the rest of the roster.  I don't see how they can have a team with Brown and Tatum plus 12 others all making under $5M, which is about what it would need to be to be under the second apron.  I have not crunched the numbers in any detail but I think that is how it is going to work out.  The Celtics are going to be over the second apron and will have a really good team, but will have to accept the limitations on trades and signings that come with it.

The option will be to have a good team but few options to improve it or a not so good team that you may be able to make a little better.

Lets put some actual numbers to it. In 24-25 the cap is projected to be 143 million, if Browns signs for 35% that would start at 50 million. The next year his salary would increase to 54 million (50 with 8% raise). Assuming the cap rises 10% (due to new TV deal) in 25-26 that would put the cap that year at about 157 and Tatum's 35% max starting at about 55 million. The only other player under contract for that year are Smart at 21.4 and Rob at 13.6. So thats a total of 144 million for 4 guys.

The 2nd apron will be 134% of the cap, so that's 210 million roughly on a 157 million dollar cap. That leaves 66 million for 11 roster spots. Again, this assumes a 10% cap rise the first year of Tatum's extension which is the first year of the new TV deal, as well as Tatum and Brown at max numbers. 

So its not quite Tatum+Brown and 12 guys making under five. Its Tatum/Brown/Smart/Rob and 11 guys making an average of roughly 6, at least that first year. All this also assumes the C"s are willing to spend up to the second apron, even between the first and second apron the penalties money wise get pretty tough.

Thanks for the added analysis.  You proved my guess wasn't far off.  You assumed 13 players, I assumed 14 players.  You came up with Tatum + Brown plus 11 more at $6M each.  I guessed Tatum + Brown plus 12 more at $5M each.

My point is if you build the roster that way, you still can't really do anything to improve the team with trades or signings and stay under the second apron.   Maybe you can sign a min contract vet in one case but not the other.  How much does that change things?  I am saying the team will be better if you resign who you can, even if you end up over the second apron, and then have to live with the restrictions.

Not quite, I came up with Tatum + Brown + Smart at 21 Million + Rob at 14 million + 11 guys at an average of 6 million.

But your point still stands, its hard to fill out a roster with two max guys.

Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #46 on: June 09, 2023, 12:37:51 PM »

Online Celtics2021

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It is not smart team building or cap management to pay a guy that is around the 25th best player in the sport 35% of the cap.  It is too much money for a guy that simply isn't good enough.  But unless Boston trades him, they have to do that as they can't let him leave.  That is why I'd trade Brown.  You just have to maximize the dollars and cap room and that isn't Brown.

I'm not being argumentative, but I would like to see your list of the top 25-30 players that includes JB.  There's a point I want to make, but it's better made if I use your list than one I make up.

Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #47 on: June 09, 2023, 12:40:13 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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It is not smart team building or cap management to pay a guy that is around the 25th best player in the sport 35% of the cap.  It is too much money for a guy that simply isn't good enough.  But unless Boston trades him, they have to do that as they can't let him leave.  That is why I'd trade Brown. You just have to maximize the dollars and cap room and that isn't Brown.

Thing is those aren't the only two options. The "Brown makes too much money to build out a team argument" doesn't really become a thing until you have both him and Tatum on a 35% Max in 25-26. That's two more years until its an issue. It makes very little sense to trade a guy now when he's an expiring that no other team can functionally extend and as a result has less value than ever.

The best bet is re-sign him, give things two more years, then re-evaluate. Unless he suffers a career ending type injury he'll have more value locked up on a contract by that point then he does now.

Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #48 on: June 09, 2023, 12:48:50 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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It is not smart team building or cap management to pay a guy that is around the 25th best player in the sport 35% of the cap.  It is too much money for a guy that simply isn't good enough.  But unless Boston trades him, they have to do that as they can't let him leave.  That is why I'd trade Brown.  You just have to maximize the dollars and cap room and that isn't Brown.

I'm not being argumentative, but I would like to see your list of the top 25-30 players that includes JB.  There's a point I want to make, but it's better made if I use your list than one I make up.

I know you didn't ask me, but I find the focus on exact ranking somewhat unhelpful. There are like about 15 guys who are clearly better than Jaylen right now imo.

But then there's like 15 or so ish guys all on roughly the same Tier as Jaylen that you can almost put in any order. So reasonably you can put Jaylen anywhere form like 16th to 30th and everyone will get mad but there's not a a lot of difference in that range.

Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #49 on: June 09, 2023, 04:37:37 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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It is not smart team building or cap management to pay a guy that is around the 25th best player in the sport 35% of the cap.  It is too much money for a guy that simply isn't good enough.  But unless Boston trades him, they have to do that as they can't let him leave.  That is why I'd trade Brown. You just have to maximize the dollars and cap room and that isn't Brown.

Thing is those aren't the only two options. The "Brown makes too much money to build out a team argument" doesn't really become a thing until you have both him and Tatum on a 35% Max in 25-26. That's two more years until its an issue. It makes very little sense to trade a guy now when he's an expiring that no other team can functionally extend and as a result has less value than ever.

The best bet is re-sign him, give things two more years, then re-evaluate. Unless he suffers a career ending type injury he'll have more value locked up on a contract by that point then he does now.

I think you're missing the point here. It's not about the development of the payroll whether or not signing Brown to a supermax is a smart decision.

Signing (a player of the caliber of) Brown to 35% of the cap is a bad decision period, because it's simply a very bad contract. You're not getting good value per dollar. And for that reason teams are not going to hand you a bag of assets in 2025 to help you get off that contract.

It's far more likely that you're going to have to take some form of bad contract or liability in return. And then the Celtics are with their backs against the wall. If ownership wants to pay $200M in luxury tax every year then I don't care much about the contract, but I don't think they will.

I still care though because every dollar overspent is an opportunity cost. Ainge was a master in getting good value per dollar. I hope Stevens will follow him on that and not let his personal feelings towards his former pupils deray him from his task as GM.

Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #50 on: June 09, 2023, 05:09:57 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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It is not smart team building or cap management to pay a guy that is around the 25th best player in the sport 35% of the cap.  It is too much money for a guy that simply isn't good enough.  But unless Boston trades him, they have to do that as they can't let him leave.  That is why I'd trade Brown. You just have to maximize the dollars and cap room and that isn't Brown.

Thing is those aren't the only two options. The "Brown makes too much money to build out a team argument" doesn't really become a thing until you have both him and Tatum on a 35% Max in 25-26. That's two more years until its an issue. It makes very little sense to trade a guy now when he's an expiring that no other team can functionally extend and as a result has less value than ever.

The best bet is re-sign him, give things two more years, then re-evaluate. Unless he suffers a career ending type injury he'll have more value locked up on a contract by that point then he does now.

I think you're missing the point here. It's not about the development of the payroll whether or not signing Brown to a supermax is a smart decision.

Signing (a player of the caliber of) Brown to 35% of the cap is a bad decision period, because it's simply a very bad contract. You're not getting good value per dollar. And for that reason teams are not going to hand you a bag of assets in 2025 to help you get off that contract.

It's far more likely that you're going to have to take some form of bad contract or liability in return. And then the Celtics are with their backs against the wall. If ownership wants to pay $200M in luxury tax every year then I don't care much about the contract, but I don't think they will.

I still care though because every dollar overspent is an opportunity cost. Ainge was a master in getting good value per dollar. I hope Stevens will follow him on that and not let his personal feelings towards his former pupils deray him from his task as GM.

No, i understand that's the belief.  I just completely disagree with the idea.

If Jaylen Brown plays just roughly the same as he did this year next year, and he should given he'll be only 27, then he is easily a positive value player next summer even on a 4+1 35% max. Guys who can score 27 ppg with a high USG, defend 1-4 reasonably well, rebound well for their size, don't have an extensive injury history and play the wing will have value. There are always a ton of teams with young player and cap space who want to be better immediately and don't really care about the money because their stars aren't getting paid yet. Detroit, Houston, OKC, Orl all for example. I think you'll get a very good return for a guy under contract, MUCH better than for a guy in the final year of his deal, because having him under long term control greatly expands the number of teams who might be interested.

Again, if he blows out his knee or suffers some career altering injury next year MAYBE that changes things. But also him taking another leap, which is possible, changes thing in the other direction. So its a risk, but I think a good one.


Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #51 on: June 18, 2023, 06:45:52 AM »

Offline cman88

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Funny thing is Suns are about to pay Booker/KD/Beal $50million each and there are some fans here worried about paying just Tatum/Brown the supermax...

Re: There's no need to be worried about CBA changes yet
« Reply #52 on: June 22, 2023, 04:24:55 AM »

Offline goCeltics

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How close are they to the apron with grant, will they be able to use the tmle if grant doesn't resign