So... can we keep Tatum and White? Would be awesome, even if it meant 2 of Kornet/Hauser/Tillman are casualties in the process.
Next year this is what our cap would look like at the start of the season:
(click to enlarge)
Now fast forward to a year from then, start of 2025-26. If you want to make up some fake numbers, I tried to work out our cap using the Spotrac data for 2025-26 and made the following assumptions:
- We sign JT to a supermax, which would be 35% of the cap for the next 5 years. 2025-26 cap is projected to be $155.1m. I rounded the annual number to $65m for simplicity
- We sign White to a $40m contract, which would be less than a max, which would be $245m for 5 years. Maybe Derrick likes it here and is willing to take a $45m discount over 5 years, especially since we can offer him a 5th year and others can't. Let's cross our fingers
- Since we need more than 7 players to make a team (contrary to what Joe thinks), let's assume we sign most of the bench guys we have now to vet min. Right, no raises, because they should be privileged to be playing for a team as esteemed and royal as the Boston Celtics. In fact they should be paying the team to play. So assume Al, Luke, X, Oshae, Springer and Hauser (yes Hauser) all agree to be paid vet min, which would be around $2.4m).
IF that were to happen this is what our roster would look like (for visual people who find numbers boring):
(click to enlarge)
Our active roster cap would be at $247m. We would be over the salary cap of $155.1m with just the Jays and Derrick. We would be over the luxury tax of $188m with Jrue added to that (who cares it's not our money). We would be over the 2nd apron of $208m with our starting 5 and would be unable to aggregate salaries in trade (who cares we don't need anyone else with our superteam), our 2033 draft pick would be frozen (who cares don't need it), no access to the MLE (who cares we have a superteam, don't need it), can't include cash in trades (who cares). We would be $63m over the luxury tax with all those committed salaries and trade restrictions so Wyc better get his wallet out, we don't want no cheapskate owners
It would suck to be Al, Luke, Sam, Q, X and Jaden to be paid vet min (anyway Al would be in his dotage by then we would be doing him a favor giving him a vet min at all) but where we cannot offer them money we can offer them championships and rings.
There's no other way around it, I feel we will be operating as an over the 2nd apron team for the foreseeable future. To answer Phantom's question, yes we can keep both JT and White, and the others as well - there's nothing that prevents the above scenario from happening, it just needs an acceptance from Wyc and Brad of the financial and roster building consequences of being an over-the-luxury-tax and over-the-second apron team. Because these are all our own players that we have Bird rights to, we can exceed the cap to re-sign them. We will just be severely hampered both financially and roster-wise for the next number of years once those contracts are guaranteed and on our books. So if something goes south, like what happened with Phoenix this year, we will be very limited in being able to do anything. If anything I erred on the conservative side by filling out the rest of our lineup with guys getting paid vet min, I'm sure Sam won't be getting paid a vet min at least
Because of that, I think it's inevitable that someone will eventually be moved, within the next 3 or so years, whether it's Jrue, Jaylen or both. Not because they suck because they don't, but because at some point Brad will want to reset the repeater tax rate to make it less onerous for ownership (just think of Golden State paying around $400m in payroll and tax next season with a team that probably won't even make the playoffs again) and also try to get under the second apron for at least a year for roster management purposes.