I remember a while back before the Gasol trade Grizz did want that pick conveyed this year if possible.
They do but they also already shut down Jaren Jackson Jr., and Conley might be seeing reduced minutes or rest days soon. Already had a rest day this past week.
They’re still often collapsing with the lead in crunch time, so no better than 8th worst record (30% chance of conveying, as listed by OP) IMO. #9 Charlotte has 29 wins, #10 has 30.
Conley just played a team high 35 minutes and scored 40 points to beat Portland and was in the game in crunch time. Not seeing evidence as of now of them limiting his minutes. They are very close to being able to give their pick away, trading conley this offseason and doing a hard tank next year to get someone to pair with jackson (and whatever they get for conley). That seems like a much smoother path...
I just wouldn't be surprised to see them to start having him play low 20s once they're officially eliminated from playoff contention. Or at least sit out a few SEGABABA (3 remaining).
Plus, they're really 4 games back from #9 since Charlotte holds the H2H 2-0 with 16 games to go.
Some tough games left along with cupcakes: GSW x2, Jazz, HOU, POR, OKC, Clippers.
Coin flip games: MIN, DET, ORL x2
Awful teams: WAS, DAL x2, ATL, PHO
Also, they still have inexplicable losses sprinkled in between good wins. That OKC game 3/3 was an awful choke, typical of their season. Loss 2/27 vs. CHI was also a horrible display of ugly offense. Hard to see them winning enough to overtake ... the CLE loss 2/23 was one of the worst games I've watched this year.
8th and 30% is likely, 9th looks extremely unlikely IMO