I can't consider any 4-13 team "playing well". Heck, even at their recently improved play pace (4-7 after starting 0-6) that only translates to a 30 win team over the course of a season. This isn't going to be a good team.
I never considered the pick to be a lock for the top 3 but I have said repeatedly that it may very well be a #5 or #6 pick. And that's fine by me. Every Celtics fan wants a top 3 pick, no doubt. We all want Ben Simmons. But I'm not going to complain if it's top 5 or even #8...well, unless we get screwed in the lottery AGAIN (at this point it's starting to look like an anti-Celtics conspiracy). Look who was picked between 5 and 10 over the last few years:
2009 - Curry, DeRozan, Rubio, Jennings
2010 - Cousins, Heyward, Monroe, Paul George
2011 - Valanciunas, Walker (really bad draft)
2012 - Barnes, Lillard, Drummond
2013 - Noel (another really bad draft year)
2014 - Smart, Randle, Payton
Some of those years were rather lean but then again they were relatively weak draft classes. But in other years there are some genuine studs in that list, including a number of All-Stars and the reigning league MVP. I like those type of odds. Those picks aren't garbage. So I'm not getting all mopey and depressed because the Nets may not own the #1 pick.
Even if the pick is, say, #6, that's a really valuable pick and remember the Cs have two more of theirs (the right to swap in 2017 and the 2018 pick). The Nets are going to have a very difficult time getting better because of their lack of draft picks and the fact that many teams will have plenty of cash for free agency - and many of those teams are far more attractive destinations.
Thus it could very well play out that we own top 10 picks from them in 2016, 2017 and 2018. If Danny can't spin gold out of those then he doesn't deserve to be the GM.