I think it is pretty much a given Thompson gets moved at some point.
I don't think the team is going to keep Fournier and Smart long term, so they will either let Fournier walk or they re-sign him and then trade Smart.
Maybe they go back to some variation of my Warriors trade
Wiggins, Minny pick (if it transfers this year - find out this week)
for
Smart, Thompson, Edwards, G. Williams, 22 lotto 1st
That trade adds salary so keeping Fournier basically guarantees the C's pay the tax this year, but that gives the team a very high pick in the current draft which hopefully turns into that 3rd foundational piece.
Seems like an impossibly big haul for Smart, Thompson and a 1st. That is a nice pick to give up. Is Wiggins considered that negative an asset? If they did that, it would make zero sense to sign Fournier with Wiggins added to Langford and Nesmith. A pick like that could land a nice starting point or PF. It would be worth throwing in an extra 1st.
GS would drop in the 10-15 million range in salary between what Wiggins makes and what a pick in the 4-6 range would make. Given how far into the tax they are and their repeater status, that would give them a massive savings. Couple that with that trade making them better, at least in the short term (Smart and Thompson fill more needs than Wiggins, especially with Klay back), I think that is something they might do given they have a such a short window left with Curry/Klay/Dray. They would be pretty nasty next year. They can then let Smart and T. Thompson walk, which might actually get them below the tax line the following season (or they can bring them back if it works out well).
As for the C's, it probably makes Boston a tax payer, though perhaps they could avoid it if they let Fournier walk and only brought in veteran minimum type players. But if that pick ends up being a real legit piece, I think it is worth that risk. Wiggins is way overpaid, but he can at least provide some scoring as a 3rd or 4th option type player. But I do like how that team could shake out adding Kuminga or Barnes to Tatum and Brown while still having Horford, Wiggins, R. Williams, Nesmith, Langford, Pritchard, Brown, etc. Team definitely needs a PG in that scenario though.
I just think Boston is going to need to take a real risk like that to have any real shot of getting a true foundational piece around Tatum and Brown, and there aren't many avenues for Boston to do that without taking on someone like Wiggins who has a huge contract.
There are other possible trades out there. I mean maybe Dallas is really ready to move on from the Zinger. Smart, Thompson, Langford, 22 lotto 1st for Porzingis and Burke, makes sense on some level for both teams. There maybe you do bring back Fournier and pay the tax without question.
PG - Burke, Pritchard
SG - Brown, Fournier
SF - Tatum, Nesmith
PF - Porzingis, G. Williams
C - Horford, R. Williams
That seems likes a pretty solid 2 deep team