Will We Try to Stay Under the Tax Again?

[jambr380]

Reviewing the figures after the Kemba trade, it seems entirely possible the Cs may try to duck the tax again this season, which is set at $136.6M according to Woj. First and foremost it would likely require us to not re-sign Fournier OR for us to dump TT to a team with cap space and re-sign Fournier to a reasonable contract.

Hoopshype currrently has the Cs with $124.7M in salary commitments next season. Let's assume they do in fact pick up Parker's option, that puts them at $126.9M. If we are able to completely dump TT's contract, that gives us a lot more options, dropping us down to $117.2M with 12 roster spots filled.

If we can re-sign Fournier at a contract starting at ~$12M, we'd be at $129M, now with 13 roster spots filled. That would seemingly give us some options with those last two roster spots with about $7.5M to spend. Of course it would likely mean we would not be using the remaining part of the TPE, but we would create a new one at a similar amount with TT going out.

So what do you think? Are we going to go all-in by using the rest of the TPE, using the MLE (taxpayer), trading up for salaries (TT/Smart for a max guy); or are we going to try to duck the tax again this year with Smart and TL extensions almost certainly putting us there next year?

[Celtics2021]

I think we will.  Remember, you just have to finish under the tax line, and not start there.  If Thompson isn’t moved this summer, I suspect he will be by February.

[bricone29]

If Wyc and his ownership team won't tell the fanbase. There's only one reliable source that I know that can answer this.

And that's Kemba's cousin. I guess we need to wait patiently for his cousin's to tweet the answer

[BitterJim]

I don't think the team makes any detrimental moves (like choosing not to re-sign Fournier, or leaving the mini-MLE unused) just to stay under the tax, but I can totally see us trading TT and maybe keeping a roster spot or two open in order to do so. If Fournier's contract is high enough that it would take more than dumping TT and shuffling around that 11-15 slots on the roster to get under the tax, I think we'd just accept it and stay as a tax team.

And as Celtics2021 said, it's about your cap sheet at the end of the year, so we could always start the season as a tax team while having some small moves lined up (dumping TT, using a pick+cash to dump someone like Jabari's contract, etc.) that could bring us back under if we don't look good at the trade deadline.

[PhoSita]

Hopefully not, but if they do try to stay under the tax and let Fournier go in order to do it, I would guess that means they're focused on 2022 and beyond rather than trying to make something of this upcoming season.

[Surferdad]

Why would they pay the tax in a year they are not expected to win?  If they improve the following year (by somehow adding a 3rd star), they could be set up for repeater tax penalty.

[Moranis]

I think it is pretty much a given Thompson gets moved at some point.

I don't think the team is going to keep Fournier and Smart long term, so they will either let Fournier walk or they re-sign him and then trade Smart.

Maybe they go back to some variation of my Warriors trade

Wiggins, Minny pick (if it transfers this year - find out this week)

for

Smart, Thompson, Edwards, G. Williams, 22 lotto 1st


That trade adds salary so keeping Fournier basically guarantees the C's pay the tax this year, but that gives the team a very high pick in the current draft which hopefully turns into that 3rd foundational piece.

[td450]

I think it is pretty much a given Thompson gets moved at some point.

I don't think the team is going to keep Fournier and Smart long term, so they will either let Fournier walk or they re-sign him and then trade Smart.

Maybe they go back to some variation of my Warriors trade

Wiggins, Minny pick (if it transfers this year - find out this week)

for

Smart, Thompson, Edwards, G. Williams, 22 lotto 1st


That trade adds salary so keeping Fournier basically guarantees the C's pay the tax this year, but that gives the team a very high pick in the current draft which hopefully turns into that 3rd foundational piece.

Seems like an impossibly big haul for Smart, Thompson and a 1st. That is a nice pick to give up. Is Wiggins considered that negative an asset? If they did that, it would make zero sense to sign Fournier with Wiggins added to Langford and Nesmith. A pick like that could land a nice starting point or PF. It would be worth throwing in an extra 1st.

[jambr380]

Some solid responses so far. TPs to you guys.

I generally agree that it doesn't make sense for us to go into the tax. We can re-sign Fournier and still acquire decent players. It may even make sense to save the MLE for later in the year when we can use it on an impact player, while also only having to pay the pro-rated amount. This benefited us in the Parker deal where we only paid him $400K last season on his vet min contract.

I guess the next exercise is to look at teams who might be able to acquire TT for nothing or for a keepable under $5M level player. That gets more complicated once teams have used their cap space and the season begins, but I suppose it is still possible.

And, of course, there is Moranis' idea which throws the tax out the window, but provides more upside for the future. Just not sure Smart will bring us back that much value, though.

[Roy H.]

I’d like to see them go in one of two directions:

1.  Build toward having max cap space the summer of 2023.  That means no deals for more than two years.  The target here would be Embiid.

2.  Go over the tax and try to accumulate “building block” contracts by using all of our exceptions.  Resign Fournier and operate as an over the cap team for the foreseeable future.  Collect as many players on mid-sized contracts as possible using our trade exceptions, so these players can be used as salary filler to bring in a bigger star.

[PhoSita]

What an amazing coup de grace it would be to sign Embiid away from Philly after everything else.

I suppose the question is whether Philly might have to consider trading him next summer if they're unable to right the ship for next season.

[libermaniac]

I’m no capologist so forgive me if this is a dumb question. But, I read somewhere that the Kemba for Horford swap enabled the Cs to be in the running for a Max free agent next off season. 2022. If that’s true, wouldn’t signing Fournier eliminate that possibility?

[Surferdad]

I’m no capologist so forgive me if this is a dumb question. But, I read somewhere that the Kemba for Horford swap enabled the Cs to be in the running for a Max free agent next off season. 2022. If that’s true, wouldn’t signing Fournier eliminate that possibility?

They would have to cut Horford and eat the $14M guarantted on his contract.  If they don't cut him, he gets paid roughly twice that, so no Max FA in that case.

[Walker Wiggle]

I think they will make a strong effort to get under the tax line this year, so that they can go over the tax without repeater penalties starting next year or the year after. The easiest way to do that is to trade Thompson to a team with cap space, and I think there will be teams hanging around after the big-time free agents have signed elsewhere that will be happy to pay $9m for one year. The Celtics trading him in exchange for a (potentially protected) 2nd rounder sounds about right.

How likely is it, though, that Fournier settles for a contract starting at just $12m? If not, they'd either elect to sign him at a higher number and hope to find a deal to get under the tax during the season (risky), or sign and trade him to another team for a lower-salary player. I don't mind that second scenario at all.

Lastly, I don't think they will prioritize getting under the cap ahead of the 2022 offseason. If a big-name free agent wants to come here and the Celtics are over the cap, all that would need to happen is for the player to tell his team he's leaving and Boston is his preferred destination, then let the two clubs negotiate compensation. Boston will have contracts that will add up to a max salary, young players, and all of their future draft picks. I think this is the main road that the Celtics have their eye on.

[Moranis]

I think it is pretty much a given Thompson gets moved at some point.

I don't think the team is going to keep Fournier and Smart long term, so they will either let Fournier walk or they re-sign him and then trade Smart.

Maybe they go back to some variation of my Warriors trade

Wiggins, Minny pick (if it transfers this year - find out this week)

for

Smart, Thompson, Edwards, G. Williams, 22 lotto 1st


That trade adds salary so keeping Fournier basically guarantees the C's pay the tax this year, but that gives the team a very high pick in the current draft which hopefully turns into that 3rd foundational piece.

Seems like an impossibly big haul for Smart, Thompson and a 1st. That is a nice pick to give up. Is Wiggins considered that negative an asset? If they did that, it would make zero sense to sign Fournier with Wiggins added to Langford and Nesmith. A pick like that could land a nice starting point or PF. It would be worth throwing in an extra 1st.

GS would drop in the 10-15 million range in salary between what Wiggins makes and what a pick in the 4-6 range would make.  Given how far into the tax they are and their repeater status, that would give them a massive savings.  Couple that with that trade making them better, at least in the short term (Smart and Thompson fill more needs than Wiggins, especially with Klay back), I think that is something they might do given they have a such a short window left with Curry/Klay/Dray.  They would be pretty nasty next year.  They can then let Smart and T. Thompson walk, which might actually get them below the tax line the following season (or they can bring them back if it works out well).

As for the C's, it probably makes Boston a tax payer, though perhaps they could avoid it if they let Fournier walk and only brought in veteran minimum type players.  But if that pick ends up being a real legit piece, I think it is worth that risk.  Wiggins is way overpaid, but he can at least provide some scoring as a 3rd or 4th option type player.  But I do like how that team could shake out adding Kuminga or Barnes to Tatum and Brown while still having Horford, Wiggins, R. Williams, Nesmith, Langford, Pritchard, Brown, etc.  Team definitely needs a PG in that scenario though. 

I just think Boston is going to need to take a real risk like that to have any real shot of getting a true foundational piece around Tatum and Brown, and there aren't many avenues for Boston to do that without taking on someone like Wiggins who has a huge contract. 


There are other possible trades out there.  I mean maybe Dallas is really ready to move on from the Zinger.  Smart, Thompson, Langford, 22 lotto 1st for Porzingis and Burke, makes sense on some level for both teams.  There maybe you do bring back Fournier and pay the tax without question.

PG - Burke, Pritchard
SG - Brown, Fournier
SF - Tatum, Nesmith
PF - Porzingis, G. Williams
C - Horford, R. Williams

That seems likes a pretty solid 2 deep team